Go Kart Mozart

Geez, now I have to look at the stupid ICON. Thanks.

The features in the north Atlantic seem to have shifted a tad westward, but alas, pretty much rock steady run after run.

Southern stream getting a tiny kick from the feature off Baja through 66? Ocean storm a tad slower?

Isn't there some rare physical process where Boston gets coastal flooding on strong north winds? I think it happened in February of 2017?

Early February 2010 was the classic example. The final insult to us New Englanders that year. Hempstead might have done well on that, I don't recall. The wildest thing about that storm was that Byram, a neighborhood in the far SW corner of Greenwich CT, got 19", while downtown Greenwich, 3 miles away, got 7". Yikes.

Yeah, I give up. Ensemble means all the way!

No I have been posting this for a while, the mean is greatly misused. Let me give an example of the Golden Mean Fallacy: Let's say for example, the world is in the grip of a pandemic. Scientists develop a vaccine for the pandemic in remarkably short order. However, people break into two clusters over the vaccine. Cluster 1 says "you must get two vaccine doses, that will give you great protection!". Cluster two says, "this is a rushed and untested vaccine, don't take any doses, it could be dangerous!" So I go for the mean solution, and get just one dose. Big error. One of the two clusters is correct here...in fact the mean is a certain loser.

I believe that the ensemble mean is nearly useless. Do a Google of the Golden Mean Fallacy. The clusters give the best hints, and there was always a significant west-clusterF.

And then there is the 6z NAVGEORGE

If we were in Dubois PA we would be on tenterhooks, waiting for Lucy to pull the football away. Things look dismal now, but it is very rare for a forecasted track to remain set-in-stone over five days...Does that mean Cleveland should be getting ready? Maybe.

Wow, narrow goal posts for this far out in time. I pray you are right!

Agreed, and note that there are not a ton of members in the bullseye. Beware of The Golden Mean Fallacy. Then again, it is six days out, so who the F knows.

Let's take that 971 that is about 150 miles east of Ocean City, and slam it right up Narragansett Bay at 955 mbs. I want warm and foggy east of 495, a raging back and forth of mixed precip from 495 to Ware, and west of an Assthol-Ware-Old Saybrook line...a wind driven blizzard. Any takers, WOTR?

All models seem to agree that the high will not be in a good spot. She'll have to be a needle-threader.

Breathe in....breathe out.....

That's a beauty. The near phase is likely better for us then the full-on phase.

A lost cause with six days to go...based on one GFS run?

Big improvement aloft too, but I fear too little too late for most. Where is the DGEX when ya need it?

LOL, we will be watching model runs today rooting for a storm to be weak and OTS!

We need a Canadian solution, which makes the ocean storm weak sauce.

Heh, heheh, heh. His name is Wood.

GFS looking euro-ish through 108?

Nice write up. Chime in on this board early and often!

If I could figure out how to post a Vevo vid I would post Monsters, by Shinedown.

Where does one find this run?