Go Kart Mozart

After dicking around in 7, the MJO goes off-the-chart 3 in less than a day....

Not in Plymouth.

Imagine if you were a weenie living in Moncton? GFS 36", euro a few flurries.

CT River Valley and Cape Cod the jack zones? You don't see that pairing every day.

Just askin...but would say.... Litchfield CT be considered non-mountainous?

How will you guys define a threat? You'll need a referee.

Is a storm hitting the coast at Daytona, and moving SE from there considered suppression? OTOH, this is eight days away.

Birdshot spread from a sawed off shotgun.

Ha, way to go euro! I just glanced quickly at the 24 hr increments on TT. Awesome storm with no cold air, lol.

First, you need to understand the difference between an implication and an inference. I imply nothing other than it is unlikely. You infer that I am declaring it dismissible. Second, I don't give a damn what the clown maps say for Norfolk. I am implying that a significant storm on the east coast "makes some sense"...and that's a direct quote from my post. Lastly, I predict it "will have legs". I also predict that the 49ers and Ravens will win tomorrow...maybe I am wrong on all three...what do I know?

Maps showing storms dropping from Nunavut to ACY are fun to look at, but highly unlikely. Meanwhile, euro wants to retrograde that big continental block. That day-10 scenario makes some sense and will have legs....just wait.

GFS lost the 2-4 footer? WTF?

No wedge of cold air to create a nice smooth overrunning look?

This is a rather long fetch of easterlies at 850, lol.

What can we do to expunge that stupid cow's udder over Manitoba?

Weather map on acid?

I love sniffing glue in tough times like these.

On the 6z gfs, you can see the relaxation of isophyses (or whatever that Tip-word is). You can see two paths: If the southern stream can fully undercut we might have a sausage fest for the ages. If it fails....get the golf clubs ready.

Meanwhile, that digger around the 2nd is interesting. Does seem to be some potential there with a feature diving from Manitoba to the Delmarva.

Now this is a wave determined to die, lol

Cold layer will be thin with the high over western Hudson's Bay. A lesser 2007 style sleet event?

Maybe we need to say "above trend" instead of "above normal". Let's say the 30 year trend is an increase of .04f per year (fictional number), we draw the thirty year trend line, then forecast how far above/below the trend we expect.

February 9, 2017. On the 8th we hit 63f. The next day had near-blizzard conditions, with 12-18" statewide in CT with Tsnow.

This is a great analogy. Guys like Jimmy Johnson and Bill Cowher have a thousand times the football knowledge compared with myself....probably more. Are they better than me at picking games? Not by one iota. It goes to show ya. Predictions are hard....especially about the future.

Do you use a different source? According to this map there is nothing unusual in the Gulf of Maine.