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Go Kart Mozart

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Everything posted by Go Kart Mozart

  1. Go Kart Mozart
    Could the 144 hour GFS and Euro be any more diametrically different?
  2. Go Kart Mozart
    Um, what?
  3. Go Kart Mozart
    Seasonal forecasting is tarot cards and chicken bones...I would think AI will lead to huge improvements in this area.
  4. Go Kart Mozart
    They will see snow within that circle. I guaranty it. They just have to look down at the ground.
  5. Go Kart Mozart
    Look at the NAM 500mb starting at 60 hours (ugh, I know). It is trying to create a second UL over eastern WV up into PA. Absolutely not modelled anywhere until now...
  6. Go Kart Mozart
    1/22/05, is that the storm JMA nailed all by itself? 25+ for NYC?
  7. Go Kart Mozart
    Frankly I don't have enough knowledge with respect to this. I am just babbling stuff I half-understand, lol.
  8. Go Kart Mozart
    Both AIs show a possible nor'easter later next week, but look really good for an SWFE pattern after that. A repeat of 1/25...even at 2/3scale that would be nice. Perhaps the transition away from PNAP is the moment for a good coastal?
  9. Go Kart Mozart
    Id' be curious to see how these got there...did they arc in from SE to NW?
  10. Go Kart Mozart
    Not great. I was hoping for at least a cluster further west. The Cape is in the game, the rest of us are struggling.
  11. Go Kart Mozart
    Does anyone have 06z ensemble clusters?
  12. Go Kart Mozart
    ICON keeps the 500 closed low north of the Tidewater, rather than over Savannah. A rather radical change, I would think. Edit: Not a huge change over itself, but far from the look of every other model.
  13. Go Kart Mozart
    I looked at it and your Albany musing came to mind.
  14. Go Kart Mozart
    There are clear differences at 48h....so there's that anyway. But yes, I give it about 2% weighting right now.
  15. Go Kart Mozart
    Let's analyze the living crap out of the 0z NAM! It will kill the time until the globals come out.
  16. Go Kart Mozart
    Purple haze?
  17. Go Kart Mozart
    Really, that is your concern?
  18. Go Kart Mozart
    Goofus razor close.
  19. Go Kart Mozart
    Either OTS or up the Delaware, lol. Actually, that's pretty effing encouraging. May I have the 79 just east of Cape May?
  20. Go Kart Mozart
    Ha, snowing again. Some years it just wants to snow!
  21. Go Kart Mozart
    Plenty of time for little tics like this:
  22. Go Kart Mozart
    Dig more west, or not so deep? I think we want closure closer to Norfolk rather than Myrtle Beach. Maybe digging west accomplishes the same thing?
  23. Go Kart Mozart
    There you have it. Total whiff.
  24. Go Kart Mozart
    I question the euro bowling ball off Myrtle Beach. Let's get it to Chincoteague.
  25. Go Kart Mozart
    They can be squirrelly bastards. Often a very narrow zone of heavy snow, precip-tpye issues, overall very sensitive to small modelling changes.. OTOH, they tend to give SWCT our best chances for huge totals.
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