Go Kart Mozart

Pretty much all models show the MJO ready to take a nice trip towards the left side. GFS has highest amplitude.

I have never been impressed by the BAM weather crew. Lot's of bold talk about how it's "meteorology not modelology" then they flop around like a freshly caught mackerel with each new run.

I am curious (not doubting the validity of the findings), but how did they determine the jet stream speeds from 100 years ago?

Are the flurries the cause?

I like this AI ensemble look that has been showing up. Lot's of disturbances coming out of the SW, with a strong thermal gradient just to our south?

No need for commiseration down here in the banana belt. We are at 14" on January 4rth...that's a strong start for us!

.8" here. Total surprise...I should have listened to DIT, he tried to tell us! Some years it just wants to snow.

He is dead nuts right. Can I suggest sunscreen and a big floppy hat?

Going by the AIs and AI ensembles, it looks like a simple matter of cracking a few eggs to make a nice omelet

Where is WinterWolf and what have you done with him?

The AI models are self-educating, so they should get even better with time even without tweaks to the programing. It gets interesting with models like GraphCast, which are apparently a hybrid of AI and fluid dynamics. I still like the physics models inside of four days, but beyond that time frame it seems that AI has taken the clear lead.

The Pivotal free site now has Euro Skynet ensembles with the continental view. BTW, after about the 11th or so...they look tasty.

By February 1st or so we should have a good handle on January.

1.75" in the heart of Trumbull.

My sister-in-law in Erie reported T-snow with the squall lime.