IWXwx

I'm not being a smartass, so bear with me. Join CoCoRaHS and report your daily precip. I've done it since 2006, missing only four or five days. The more reports an area gets, the better the mesoscale/microscale accuracy is in a given location for the Drought Monitor. Here is an example of precip reports for June for Indiana with and without CoCoRaHS reports. I understand that it takes more than you reporting to make a significant difference, but every little bit helps. If all of the weenies here that closely monitor the weather would report, it would make a significant difference.

I heard two claps of thunder as it rolled through here. EDIT: Oh...and picked up a whopping 0.03"

For all of the Indiana posters who are watching the severe threat being pushed father north into Michigan with each model run, IND is throwing out a bone by tossing the CAM guidance. It will be interesting to see what SPC says in their Day 1 update. Potential for severe weather is increasing for Central Indiana for this evening and into tonight. Aloft, a shortwave trough, already evident on satellite imagery in Minnesota, dives southeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by tonight. At the surface, a quasistationary NW-SE oriented boundary extends from Southern Minnesota to Southern Indiana. RAP mesoanalysis data shows a sharp Theta-E and SBCAPE gradient along this boundary as well as a PWAT and low level moisture max along and southwest of this line. A southwesterly 20-35 kt low level jet is currently flowing perpendicular to this boundary, increasing lift right along it, and also increasing low level shear to values conducive for organized convective development. The presence of this sharp boundary and a related instability gradient, along with mean 850-300mb winds out of the NW, suggests southeastward storm propagation along this boundary and into the region. Moist air advection into Central Indiana today will be aided by both the persistent low level jet today and the rainfall from earlier this morning, likely keeping dew points and low level moisture values above what CAMs guidance has been showing for this afternoon and evening. Latest satellite imagery this morning also shows high clouds associated with thunderstorm blow off across much of Southern Illinois and Indiana. These clouds may further enhance the instability boundary during the day by setting up a differential heating boundary between the clearer skies further north and cloudier skies further south. With all this being said, confidence is increasing in deviating from short term guidance, which shows the current MCV in Minnesota pushing towards Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan today. Additional convective development expected along said MCV. Our current thinking is that this complex will follow the axis of higher dew points/moisture and ride along the instability/theta-E gradient with the mean 850-300mb flow southeastward toward Central Indiana. Potential is there for additional convective development along and south of the path of the MCV along the aforementioned boundary within Central Indiana. While this does deviate from what CAMs guidance is showing, CAMs did not pick up well on the early morning convection which will influence the evolution of storms later this afternoon. CAMs are also notorious for over-mixing the PBL and drying out the lower levels too much within this type of atmospheric set-up. We will have to keep a close eye on the track of the MCV to the north through the day, as its track will be pivotal in determining where the best severe threat is this afternoon through tonight.

He completely understands how probabilities work. He is just playing to his sheep. It is unfortunate that this misdirection is so rampant in the public realm today. Leaders used to work for the betterment of the whole, but no longer.

IWX is hedging their bets on the late week heat. Our point 89's us Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. lol

Golf balls are all that have been reported so far, but wouldn't doubt that there are some bigger stones EDIT: Just had a report of hen egg size (2") in Mishawaka

Dropping golf balls east of South Bend and through Mishawaka

It's not often that you see an MD for almost the whole mitt and the whole mitt only. EDIT: Jinx to @Powerball. You just beat me to it

TOL, DTW, and FWA area posters might consider making plans to keep their vehicles safely under cover later today (unless you already need some body work.)

Just the opposite up here. I'm wishing for some of that storm action, as they keep dodging Huntington. Yesterday, we had one go north, one go south, and one that was zeroing in on town and just disintegrated, leaving us with a DAB. Today, storms formed along the cool front just to our southwest, which is part of the line you are experiencing.

"Humidity 4%" wow lol

That sounds perfect to me. No risk of structural damage from a tornado to your property, but close enough to chase.

The details... ...Northern IL/southern WI east to northwest OH/southern lower MI... Current MCS continues a general weakening trend based on IR cloud tops, radar trends and recent reports. Air mass recovery in the wake of the morning convection currently appears plausible, aided by a modestly enhanced low-level jet later this afternoon and evening. Steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/pockets of strong MLCAPE this afternoon, and coupled with 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear would result in a favorable parameter space for supercell development by late afternoon/early evening with all severe hazards possible. Will introduce a small 5 percent tornado probability area across this region, where forecast sounding hodograph structure appears most favorable for low-level rotation/tornado potential east of a weak surface low.

Spinups for Chicagoland and points east? Might have to take a road trip.

Caught 1.07" over the past 24 hrs. My yard and garden are loving it. Last night's showers shut down the people blowing up their discretionary spending. Let's do it again this afternoon/evening!

Dang!! I'm glad that we went a couple of weeks ago. A big NO to sitting on the bridge like that.

I got the summertime equivalent of a DAB, the big T.

From the area forecast discussions, there is no consensus. What kind of boundaries/gradient is the current crapvection to the south going to lay out and where?

Dude, you are wasting a lot of time splitting hairs over the temperatures during the '88 heat wave/drought, as if 100° was some sort magical number. So what if the actual temps at first order stations were inflated by a degree or two? As you said yourself, it was the worst since '36. As an aside, I was 30 years old in '88 and drove from Indiana (with no a/c), spending some time in Philly and D. C. during the height of the heat wave. I saw several mercury thermometers that registered 100° or more in the shade during that trip. And it wasn't a one and done, it was days upon days of mid and upper 90's. It was most extreme heat and dryness I have ever experienced and is still one for the record books, whether the thermometer read 102° or 99°.

0.72" of much needed rain here this morning. Also, with a little instability, we got to enjoy some thunder, music to my ears. Now waiting on the big show.

I'm pretty excited. Initiation looks to occur just to my west/overhead. Since I retired from Emergency Management, I won't be tied down to our county, so I will be able to chase. However, it should practically be a back yard chase.