IWXwx

In early May, NWS announced it was planning to release the latest version of its signature forecasting model, the FV3-based Global Forecast System(GFS), Version 15.1. Once the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) completes a 30-day technical test successfully, this version will be the new operational model. The targeted release date is on or about Wednesday, June 12, 2019. In February, NWS paused its implementation timeline to review user concerns about the excessive snow and a cold bias in the model and to explore other potential improvements. In the following months, NWS modified the model to alleviate excessive snow and cold bias in the model and made three key updates: -Changed the way snow amounts were calculated and communicated to the land surface model, basing it on the fraction of frozen precipitation falling on the ground rather than on the total precipitation in cold conditions -Refined the interaction of radiation with cloud particles, allowing for each type of hydrometeor (convective rain, stratiform rain, snow, graupel, and ice) to assume its own physical characteristics as calculated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory microphysics scheme (like particle radius) and interact accordingly with the radiation scheme -Updated the supersaturation parameter over ice in the data assimilation system. The results show an improvement over biases previously found in the model. Additionally major changes include: -Updating data assimilation to take in NPOESS Preparatory Project Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite ozone -Placing NOAA-19 Solar Back-scatter Ultraviolet Instrument/2 ozone in monitor -Assimilating Meteosat-11 Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager Channels 5 and 6 -Updating quality control for GOES Satellite AMVs in preparation for GOES-17. If GFSv15.1 is implemented in June, GFSv14 model output will remain available through September 30, 2019, on the NCEP Model Analyses and Guidance (MAG) Evaluation website and NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) Para-NOMADS Website.

Congrats to your daughter on her graduation. She is now a Wildcat alumnus. A least you won't have to visit the dump that is Marion, IN any more, although it is a very nice campus. It seems that the flooding rain path is slowly moving north with time. It slammed Southern IN and KY for a few weeks, we've had our turn, and today areas just north of here (and including portions of LOT's CWA) are getting hammered. Area farmers are singing the blues.

I found 33 mushrooms today. They are pretty small, but I had to pick them as they will be underwater in the next day or two as they were near a bank-full creek and the reservoir is in flood control mode so the water is backing up into the creek valley. Looks like we may get 2-3 more inches by Thursday so may see some significant flooding in the area.

I feel your pain

Yeah, it seems that the April and November tornadoes are more powerful on average here in the Midwest, while we get a lot of EF0's - EF1's in May-July. I'm too lazy and in a hurry to verify this. I'm sure Hoosier will chime in with proven stats.

I'm glad to see that he's alive and kickin'

Same thing here. I have also noticed that the crappiest weather has been on weekends more often than not. I keep waiting for the switch to get flipped so I can a backlog of outdoor work done.

I will be 66 and will hopefully be retired by then. I may have to drive 15 miles to my southeast to truly get the total eclipse but will probably just be watching from my back yard.

lol on many levels

No water shortage in the Midwest.

lol

Understandable, but personally, any number with a minus in front of it sucks. I'm not a heat miser, but am a not-freeze-my-arse-off-miser. I'd rather have 25° and a solid snow cover.

I got spoiled by 2013-14. All I had to do was fart and it would snow.

Solid

Jebman doesn't have anything on me. I saw that yesterday on the 384 hr GFS, a Christmas eve blizzard. I'm already stocking up on supplies.

Chris used to work at WPTA in Ft. Wayne before moving to Columbus. We are losing a good one.

What? None of the Ohio peeps biting on this?

It's too bad they can't issue polygon warnings like they do for severe weather. After all, why treat winter weather differently? It may not be needed for synoptic snows, but LES is often so geographically specific, it would be warranted. EDIT: I just saw OHweather recommend the same thing in his last sentence. It only makes sense.

A similar situation happened at Benton Harbor is SW MI. They stayed clear and hit -15°. That temp was verified by IWX. Surrounding stations didn't bottom out due to cloud cover.

We have an ordinance that all new mobile homes and modular (prebuilt) homes must have SAME radios installed. However, I suspect that a majority of people never turn them on or turn them off after the first time they hear the "annoying" warning tone.

In 2003, a funnel cloud was spotted north of Hartford City, IN. I was on the south side of town and headed north to try try to intercept the storm as a part of Skywarn/EMA. As I drove through town, not just a few, but dozens and dozens of people were standing outside along the street and on their porches trying to catch a glimpse of the the funnel as the sirens were blaring. The sirens are supposed to warn people to take cover. Instead, I felt like I was in a parade with all of people along the street. We work very hard to save lives and protect property, but sometimes it gets frustrating.

I am currently showing 27 tornado warnings on my GR. Wow.