IWXwx
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Everything posted by IWXwx
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Not in our subforum, but the tornado death toll is up to 22 in Tennessee. I love being a weather hobbyist, spotter, and chaser, but in my profession, that's my worst nightmare.
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I know that it is met Spring, but at my latitude, I use the vernal equinox as a delineation to Spring, as there really aren't enough pleasant days in March to consider it Spring. I actually consider both March and November throw-away months, or no-man's land, if you will. Neither month has enough snowy weather to be considered winter nor do they have enough nice pleasant days to enjoy as "Spring." (The once-in-a-lifetime Morch as the exception).
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In the immortal words of Harry Caray, "The cleanup hitter, the Euro, is up to bat. Here's the pitch, a swwwiinnggg and a miss. Holy Cow! That ball was so far outside, it was an Apps runner! How about an ice cold Budweiser?"
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The ensembles do have a coolish look from about next Thursday right on through the end of their runs. But checking forecast temps a month out?
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MIke Ryan at IND is singing a happy tune in his long range discussion this afternoon, beginning with the already infamous Feb. 27th rainer. I'm in the camp of I'll believe it when I see it. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY AND INTO EARLY MARCH WITH CONTINUED HINTS IN THE 7-14 DAY PERIOD OF ONE OR TWO HIGHER IMPACT SYSTEMS POISED TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
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March is gonna rock
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We actually had sun for a good part of the morning. Clouds filling back in now.
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Jack calls that a "reach around"
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Cue Josh optimistically stating that March is going to rock. EDIT: They also forgot that this is a leap year. February 29th is going to rock. Either that, or it will be an extra day of a miserable winter.
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"But I nailed it at 500"
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It's still showing up, eh? I continue to think that somehow, the Midwest will reel this in.
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That's the GHD III noreaster it was spitting out yesterday, just faster and more inland. Looking at this winter's pattern, congrats WI and Alek's DAB+
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GFS is trolling the East Coast with a 954mb bomb
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Rainer. I learn from the best.
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I've seen one post from him this winter, so he does still occasionally check in.
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I was considering posting something about this after perusing the Euro, but didn't want to get flack from the optimists. Although we are approaching a "pattern change", the sensible weather past day 6 doesn't look that much different.
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I'll ride it hard and put it away wet based on that map. lol (That's an equestrian term, just in case you were going there). Seriously, as Hoosier alluded to, that's the first run that's depicted that scenario. I'm more interested in around day 7, where it's been hinting at something for a couple of runs.
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Lake Michigan will be lapping at your door
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The 12z Euro caved to the GFS, which literally takes the low right along the coast from Georgia to Maine, and also depicts a weak northern stream wave following it up through the Midwest.
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Mike at IND agrees with your thinking on a pattern change: "WHILE THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A TRANSIENT SHOT OF COLD AIR...IT LIKELY WILL SIGNAL THE FIRST STEP IN AN OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT THAT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE AND COLDER CONDITIONS GOING FORWARDS TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH."
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The Let's Talk Winter thread should have something to say about the weekend system.
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Yeah, in mid-winter, a 2" snow would not warrant an Advisory. However, our NWS office has made it clear that they will always issue a WWA with the first snow that sticks to roads every due to the amnesia that drivers seem to experience every year.
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I wouldn't be too concerned temp-wise. FWA went from 40° to 30° like it saw a state trooper this morning.
