IWXwx

Yeah, in mid-winter, a 2" snow would not warrant an Advisory. However, our NWS office has made it clear that they will always issue a WWA with the first snow that sticks to roads every due to the amnesia that drivers seem to experience every year.

I wouldn't be too concerned temp-wise. FWA went from 40° to 30° like it saw a state trooper this morning.

My daughter is supposed to drive from FWA to SBN tomorrow for business. After seeing the HRRR I told her proclaim trip cancel.

That clipper keeps showing up. Nothing scientific, but I'm smelling over-performer just for the fluff factor if nothing else.

Bone chilling, record-breaking cold in early November with bare ground. It's gonna be a long winter....

I did something similar, but used Nov. 15th as the cutoff. After I did that, I thought to myself that the end of November would have been a better cutoff.

You keep repeating yourself. Keep it up for about 4 more months.

Forecasters are biting on the serious cold early next week. The point-n-clicks around here are already bumping up against some long-standing min. maxes and low records. They could also being fudging toward climo at this range, so going even lower is possible. We're talking temps that are colder than the lowest averages in January. We better get some snow out of this or I'll personally be lighting up the complaint thread.

First hard freeze here last night, bottoming out 24°. Growing season is done.

Even though it is going to be a swing and a miss out this way, I feel your pain brother. The first snow of the year is always brutal on the roads and especially with what the models are spitting out.

I wouldn't mind saving a little daylight for ohhh....let's see...early-mid December when it gets dark at 5:00 EST in Eastern Indiana?! But that's an argument for another thread.

Nice catch. Probably the real difference is ground temps.

Your comment prodded me to search for that answer. I used ORD from 1958-2018 since it is the hub of the subforum. I used the criteria of more than 1" of snow at ORD through Nov. 15th and the resulting winter totals. It looks to me like there is little correlation, but judge for yourself from these numbers. 1967 - 6.7" - 28.4" 1989 - 6.6" - 33.8" 1959 - 6.3" - 50.9" 2018 - 2.1" - 49.5" 1995 - 1.9" - 23.9" 1976 - 1.8" - 24.7" 2014 - 1.5" - 50.7" 1971 - 1.1" - 36.9" However, if the cutoff is Nov. 5th, then there are only three years with more than an inch of snow: 1967, 1989, and 1976. A small sample size, but those years were less than stellar.

IWX - 646 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2019 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... LOCATION SPEED TIME/DATE PROVIDER FORT WAYNE INTERNATIONAL AP 56 MPH 0101 AM 10/27 ASOS GOSHEN 55 MPH 0605 AM 10/27 ASOS DEFIANCE 54 MPH 0405 AM 10/27 ASOS ROANN 52 MPH 0245 AM 10/27 CWOP SOUTH BEND INTERNATIONAL AP 51 MPH 0536 AM 10/27 ASOS GRANT COUNTY MUNICIPAL APT 49 MPH 0215 AM 10/27 AWOS GRISSOM AFB PERU 48 MPH 0248 AM 10/27 AWOS 3.3 E OTTAWA (NWS/FAA) 48 MPH 0515 AM 10/27 MESOWEST SOMERSET 47 MPH 0225 AM 10/27 CWOP HUNTINGTON 46 MPH 0455 AM 10/27 AWOS LOGANSPORT 46 MPH 0255 AM 10/27 AWOS PORTLAND 45 MPH 0415 AM 10/27 AWOS SCOTT 45 MPH 0207 AM 10/27 CWOP

It's really hauling the mail (with apologies to Chicagowx).

I hope ensemble member No 5 of the GEFS is not a precursor to winter in Indiana this year

Hoosier, you nailed it. The ILX AFD isn't out yet. IWX- LOOKING FURTHER AT THE GUST POTENTIAL, ENDED UP RAISING GUSTS SAT NIGHT/SUN AM WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET MOVING THROUGH AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATING BETTER WINDS AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION ON SOUNDINGS LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN ORIGINALLY PROGGED. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT THE LAKE, BUT IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG/EAST OF I-69. LOT- ASIDE FROM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM THIS STORM, WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, DUE TO THE ONSHORE COMPONENT. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW COULD DEEP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 990S MB SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST- NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS UP AROUND 30 KT LATER IN THE DAY, WE COULD HAVE WAVES ON THE LAKE INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 6' FOR A PERIOD, WHICH COULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SOME MINOR LAKE SHORE FLOODING OVER THE IL SHORES. IND- IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, WINDS WILL GUST TO 30-40 MPH WITH GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. IF WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN A FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY.

We haven't had an extended period of 20's out here yet. I still have romaine and green peppers growing in my garden. I may have to pick them early next week though as we might see a freeze later in the week.

Thanks for posting that. I just looked at the surface winds on the model. (I was looking at Tropical Tidbits, which doesn't offer the 925 mb map). It does depict a pocket of stronger surface winds just south/south east of the low, especially as it bottoms out, but the 10 meter map doesn't show those winds mixing as readily to the surface (only 25-30 mph) as it moves into northern IN/IL and pressures begin to rise.

I also have that reputation. I know just enough about the weather to be dangerous. There is not much seriousness in my DNA. I really am sorry to call you out on something that in fact had a different meaning. What is really a coincidence is that I used to call my oldest daughter (she's an adult now) piglet, because she loves pigs.

Hey, no problem. I just happened to be doing some research on Greek language and that popped up. I had been reading and posting here earlier, so I already had your screen name in my head. I'm the one who should be apologizing. I had no idea that it also is a Hungarian word. I hope you will forgive me. I just assumed that it was an inside joke.

I didn't check the uncle, but you have a good point. I'd put the lawn chairs and trash cans away just to be safe.

The RGEM is on its own. The other guidance doesn't drop it below around 995. Either way, copious moisture will accompany it. Downstate IL is a lock for widespread 2+" with the NAM (of course) bringing those amounts up into ORD land.

I'm liking this early potential. It's usually a month from now before I get excited about tracking a storm. It also brings all of the knowledgeable posters out of the woodwork.

Definitely not a slam dunk, but it could add some juice