IWXwx

I was considering posting something about this after perusing the Euro, but didn't want to get flack from the optimists. Although we are approaching a "pattern change", the sensible weather past day 6 doesn't look that much different.

A little off-topic, but while the ORD/Southern MI crew sorts out the thermodynamics for "Winter Storm Jacob" (lol), it's almost a lock that from Friday afternoon through daybreak on Saturday an area through STL, HUF, IND, FWA, and TOL will see the proverbial kitchen sink of precipitation before turning to all rain. However, on the map shown below from TT, their algorithm shows an unbelievable amount of snow in the highlighted area. I realize that it includes sleet and it is caused by taint. I wish Tropical Tidbits would change this. My problem is the social media cowboys who will post this map as a forecast for pure sensationalism. Then it's up to someone in my position to talk to the public and government officials off of the ledge. On a side note, it looks like for the FWA area, it will start as snow shortly after dark (when else?), and we may be able get a quick inch or two before the kitchen sink sets in until daylight.

We are finally going to get some typical January weather. A huge high pressure that just meanders through the subforum for several days delivering bone-chilling cold over a bare ground.

The 06z GFS was showing something similar, but I don't have a clue. EDIT: My bad, that's the 12z

It sucks anyway just due to banking on a barely grass-covering snow that's just gonna get washed away by a cold rain.

Storm Recap/After Action Report

Northeast Indiana checking in. Typical winter weather system for this part of the sub: Sitting at ~2.5 inches of liquid. Waiting with bated breath for my DAB bringing up the rear.

Nailed it. Easy call.

I'm with you there. It might cost someone a few inches of snow, but I don't want to see the 4-6" of rain that some of the models have been puking out. I don't enjoy a quagmire.

Getting some lightning, eh? That line is sliding just southeast of me. I wasn't really expecting any thunder this far north, but am thinking SE IN/SW OH may get some wind out of a T-storm

The NAM is a real treat for our SE MI peeps

Waiting on the NAM's range to see if the ol' EE rule will be in effect. Yes, that was dragged out of the archives. I think that is what Hoosier was alluding to above.

With the amount of moisture to work with and models QPF for central/southern IN, there will be some significant flooding. Cue JanetJanet

It's a Hoosier/sbnwx85/Hillsdale/Michsnowfreak special. I want pics.

Eh, hard to pick, as they are all high impact, but I personally would have had Morch at least second and bumped the two PVs down one notch.

I'll ride it hard and put it away wet based on that map. lol (That's an equestrian term, just in case you were going there). Seriously, as Hoosier alluded to, that's the first run that's depicted that scenario. I'm more interested in around day 7, where it's been hinting at something for a couple of runs.

Textbook

Maybe I should start a "Millennia Banter and Complaint" thread.

I was going to post that I'm looking forward to the last boomer of the year Sunday morning, but that secondary that the NAM is showing might well give up another clap of thunder Sunday night/early Monday morning.

If the current temp forecast is correct (62°), FWA will break its old record of 60° set in 2016. The three highest temps ever recorded on 12/26 have occurred in the past five years: 2019, 2016, and 2015 (54°). Speaking of 12/26, Happy Boxing Day.

Definitely overachieving out this way. We are forecast to hit 55°. Already 56° with full sun. This ties for second on Christmas day which will easily be broken as we might touch 60°. No way of getting the all-time record, as it stands at 64° in 1982.

Merry Christmas to you. We do have some travel woes in this area as dense fog has hung out since early this morning and doesn't look to break until late tomorrow morning.

The models when there's an impending pattern change