IWXwx

Ouch!

It looks like we will finally be getting in on some of that action down this way. Even though it has rained for the past three days, the grand total was only 0.82". Model consensus is around 2" between tonight and Monday for Northeast IN.

It is now getting to the time of the year that below climo is not a bad thing, as long as it's not 25° below climo!

I'm not sure how they picked the areas from which they randomly picked the test subjects, but they did take some demographics into account: " In the first phase, more than 3,600 people were randomly selected and an additional 900 volunteers were recruited through outreach to the African American and Hispanic communities to more accurately represent state demographics."

I was going to post the results of that Fairbanks study this morning, but have been busy dealing with it at work today. The study involved picking over 4,500 people around the state at random for testing. Of the 2.8%, 1.7% tested positive and 1.1% were positive for antibodies. Based on the study results of 45% being asymptomatic, there could have been up to 83,700 people in Indiana shedding at any one point. That doesn't sound too bad until you factor in people who refuse to wear masks, say it's not their problem, etc. As you said though, the major goal is getting the high risk people protected.

FWA set a record low this morning of 29°, beating 1946's 31°. We have one more chance of frost tonight before I can put the garden sheets away.

Can you still buy those?

That's what I was thinking. I actually had a mullet once, in 1989. I don't know what got into me.

It seemed weird to me too. I have a spotter who lives about 8 miles due east of the airport (in extreme northeastern Huntington County) who reported that winds there were no stronger than 40 mph, which was about the strongest we had here in Huntington. I saw some scattered damage reports ENE of the airport, but nothing that would suggest 75mph + gusts.

Another example of the wildly variable weather is my p-n-c for tomorrow night: Sunday Night Rain showers likely, possibly mixing with snow after 2am, then gradually ending. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with as gusts as high as 35 mph.

FWA really tanked last night, bottoming out at 23°. That crushed both the record low for 5/9 (1947) and the all-time May record low of 27°. It actually fell to 29° by midnight, which tied the record low for 5/8. I think I saved everything in my garden except my cucumber plants. I ran out of stuff to cover them. We could see some frost Tuesday morning, so we're not out of the woods yet. May is properly named, as it may be 23° (like this morning), it may be 75° (like the end of this week), there may be severe weather (like tomorrow for eastern IN/western OH), there may be strong winds ( like every other day this spring, it seems).

I have been beating this drum ad nauseam, but it seems that a large sector of the US public is blind to the ultimate goal of "nothing happens."

Even though the elderly and/or immune-suppressed are the most prevalent victims, I will reiterate my earlier post. I personally know two middle-aged, previously perfectly healthy victims who are probably going to recover, but have gone through hell on earth. One was in the hospital for three and a half weeks and she is still recovering at home two weeks later. The other is on his fifth week in the hospital, not yet close to getting out, and spent a long time on a ventilator. Argue all you want about the economic impacts, the impact on business and industry, politicize it all you want, but it's not the common flu boys and girls. There is no vaccine or antidote.

Personally speaking, it wasn't overhyped. I've had one friend die from it, although he had other high-risk health issues. I also have two other friends who have it. One was in the hospital for two weeks and the other is still in the hospital and has been there for four weeks. Both of these individuals were healthy and are middle-aged. There were times when the prognosis was grim for both and I thought I was going to lose three friends from it. I completely agree with the State of Indiana's response. I work in Emergency Management and we (along with the Health Dept.) head up the local response and PPE acquisitions. I continue to tell people that proclaim it is an overreaction because the numbers haven't hit computer model projections, "You're welcome." Because if nothing had been done, it would have been ugly, especially for the high-risk groups.

Part of IND's discussion. Appropriate for today. THESE ARE NOT THE TEMPERATURES WE ARE LOOKING FOR... MODELS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY BE A NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO GET DOWN INTO THE 30S THIS WEEKEND, WITH FRIDAY LIKELY THE COLDEST WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY THE WARMTH BE WITH YOU.

A forecaster at IWX mentioned today that he had to pull rain/snow from the grids. Yes, we've seen snow in May, but it is unusual and unwanted. I'm going to have to rent a tent to cover all of the flowers and vegetables in my back yard. When I saw what the models were pumping out a few days ago, I blew it off, figuring they would come to their senses, so I worked my butt off getting everything in the ground. It now looks like that may have been a mistake.

Yeah, it ended up farther north, but I was shocked to see it get close on the temps and qpf.

Mother Nature's way of keeping us staying at home.

Even April 2012 was only slightly above normal, but felt brutal compared to Morch.

However, I will agree that Aprils have been loaded with suckage here in the past few years. Two thirds of the way through April, 2020 shows FWA sitting at a -2.6° departure. Four out of the past five years had temperature near or below normal: 2019 +0.5° 2018 -5.9° 2017 +5.2° 2016 -0.7° 2015 +0.5° It would be nice to have some more nice Aprils after having to endure yet another crappy winter.

Catastrophize much?

The same across Northern IN. IWX kept pumping out widespread 4-6" maps between US 24 and US 6, while their SitRep kept saying that the heavy band would not be that wide. It was obvious that there would be no more than narrow band of 4-6". This band occurred, but not in the area depicted, but north of US 6. 1.6" of stat-padding here with forecasts of 2-5".

You sound like Harry Caray calling a home run.

Half way there. After the winter we've had, I'm surprised to see a stripe of heavy snows near the 40th parallel in Missouri/Iowa in mid April, although I guess I shouldn't. I want pics of snow-caked limbs.

My only response is Wow! No matter how hard man tries to control his environment, Mother Nature occasionally lets you know who's boss.