IWXwx

3"-5" is the official criteria for a snow advisory at IND. However, an advisory is something that is flexible, unlike a warning. It is more at the discretion of the forecaster based on impacts. For example, a 2" snow in November might warrant an advisory, based on being the first possibility of slick roads for the season. In this case, even if 3" falls, they may take into consideration warm pavement temps and not expecting hazardous road conditions to not issue an advisory.

I actually egged that on, as she is a friend of mine. She, like me, loves gardening and is a heat miser. The other day she posted on her FB page, "The forecast is officially disgusting the next week. That is all." I teased her by saying it would make a good Long Term AFD. So for the past two days since she has been working the forecast desk, she has been playing it up in her discussions. As far as the Gordon Lightfoot reference, she grew up in Michigan and is a big promoter of boating and rip current safety on Lake Michigan. I cheer the models on all winter hoping to bullseye, then when mid-April comes and I switch into mushroom hunting, fishing, and gardening mode, I cheer the models on for a miss to the north, so I agree with her not wanting snow at the end of April.

IWX is indeed all in: SPC UPPER AIR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, CIPS ANALOGS AND GEFS M-CLIMATE RETURN INTERVAL ALL SUPPORT AN EVENT THAT MAY POSSIBLY BE CLASSIFIED AS A 50 YEAR OR 100 YEAR EVENT. A VERY STRONG ANOMALOUS SIGNAL WILL SET UP TUESDAY. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MODEL BLEND GUIDANCE GIVEN DIABATIC PROCESSES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. THE ECMWF WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN MOST OTHERS, REALLY BURIES NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 6" TO 10" OF SNOW. THE 2-DAY RECORD SNOWFALL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF APRIL IS 9.9" IN 1961. CURRENT THINKING IS 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NW INDIANA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST.

Figures it's gonna happen on 4/20. Will freak the stoners out.

I'm glad the ensembles have been showing this, because the GFS operational had previously been depicting below normal temps right on through the end of its run.

Those numbers will most likely be a little different when the 1990-2020 numbers are officially released. Ricky might be able to be more specific, but they do some blending and modifying for the final output. I got my hands on a PowerPoint with the technical explanation on arriving at the new normals, but I don't have access to it right now. I'll throw up a link when I get into the office on Tuesday in case anyone is interested.

Made me look

If you live in Carmel, I can only imagine what housing prices are in that area, being by far the wealthiest community in Indiana. Even out here in the sticks, houses are selling like hotcakes at prices exceeding the asking.

From the multiple studies I've read, the gym is not a high risk location for spread IF they strictly adhere to distancing and masks mandates. Otherwise, it's a free-for-all.

Sad. SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 2319Z FRI APR 09 2021 ...NWSCHAT OUTAGE / USAGE OF CHAT DURING CRITICAL WEATHER DAY... NCO IS CURRENTLY CONFIRMING THE HEALTH OF NWSCHAT SERVICES AFTER A RECENT OUTAGE. AS A REMINDER, IF USERS ARE NOT SEEING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PLEASE LIMIT NWSCHAT LOGINS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. IF IT IS A QUIET WEATHER DAY..ONLY ONE PERSON FROM THE OFFICE LOGGED IN TO RESPOND TO PARTNER REQUESTS. ALSO WE WOULD REQUEST THAT PARTNERS DO THE SAME. WITH YOUR HELP WE CAN KEEP NWSCHAT STABLE THROUGHOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THANK YOU FOR YOUR COOPERATION.

I cut the grass for the first time on Sunday. It already needs it again. Welcome to spring.

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 500 PM EST WED APR 07 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT FORT WAYNE... THROUGH 500 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT FORT WAYNE IS 81 DEGREES. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 81 SET IN 1929 AND 1954.

LOL at this morning's IND discussion: THE LAST PIECE OF THE PUZZLE IS ON HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BECOME. DRY PARCELS TEND TO GET MORE EXCITED AND RAPIDLY WARM TEMPS LIKE BEING OVERCAFFEINATED, THAT'S NOT GOING TO BE THE CASE TODAY. WITH MOISTENING PARCELS THEY TEND TO BE LESS EXCITED ABOUT WARMING, AND NEEDING MORE COFFEE TO GET MOTIVATED IN REALIZING THEIR POTENTIAL. EDIT: ....And IWX: AFTER RAIN ENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IS BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN A VERY DISCOMBOBULATED UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH THE GFS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ECMWF. I love these technical explanations

I want to take a minute and thank Hoosier for allowing this thread to keep going. He has caught a lot of flack, even though he has done an admirable job of trying to keep everyone in check (including me.) I have not only learned a ton of information about COVID and viruses in general, but the many different viewpoints concerning all aspects of the pandemic. There is an undercurrent of politics involved being masked as scientific data. Thanks to everyone for offering their viewpoints and information, even amongst the flame throwing.

I feel like the "vaccine passport" would be a waste of time. I remember getting a fake ID 45 years ago so I could go into a bar. Any anti-vaxer that wants to travel could easily do the same thing.

My county achieved 25% of our population 18 and over and 75% of our population 65 and over fully vaccinated as of yesterday. Of course, we only have 38,000, but it's still an impressive percentage. We are vaccinating around 350 people a day (5 days a week), so by Memorial Day, we should have everyone vaccinated that wants to be (~67%).

Getting lake effect snow here. I'm sure Wrigley will also be a treat today too.

The whole NWS network is down, websites, NWSChat etc. How does the whole network crash?

James Spann's house was hit by a tornado today while he was on the air. Another met took over while he checked on his wife, who is okay, but their home suffered significant damage. He then came back on air and told his audience about it. https://tuscaloosathread.com/james-spanns-house-damaged-by-tornado-while-live-on-air/

I really like that smell. It is the smell of rain hitting dry soil. It's called petrichor.

Wind Advisory in effect from 8 AM-11 PM Eastern for Northern Indiana. Pretty long advisory. Gonna be great, gusts to 50, upper 30's, and driving rain. yee haw

I am the opposite of you. I've had a flu shot every year for the past 20+ years, and haven't had the flu since then. I had no problem whatsoever saying yes to the vaccine, but I'm much older than you and a former smoker. It was a no-brainer for me. Additionally, I feel much more comfortable going out in public now, although I still always wear a mask when I'm around others.

I look for Indiana to do it soon. Once you get down to 40-45, you begin running into the age of people who won't get the vaccine. Here is a graph showing the average percentages of the population who received a flu shot in the US between 2010 and 2020. I'm not saying that the numbers won't be different for the Covid vaccine, but I'm pretty sure that the younger age groups percentages will mimic the flu shot numbers, although they may be slightly higher due to the publicity. When the State sees the number of appointments begin to drop by age group, they will quickly take the step of opening it up, especially now that the supply chain has stabilized.

Not in our subforum, but it could get very interesting in the South and especially Mississippi later today. I will be virtual chasing.

Indiana dropped the minimum age to 45 yesterday. Vaccinations numbers are really ramping up locally.