IWXwx

Another forgettable spring in an ongoing string of them

It's a lot different here in BFE, percentages are about 80-20 wearing masks in stores.

Micro climate lol

We're in the toasty sector here. Upper 70's all day with light rain showers and actually feeling humid

Our regular carrier wears shorts as long as it's in the upper 40's. I'm like, dude, really?

Hoosier and ChicagoWX's favorite met was quoted by an IND met on chat yesterday in an answer to a question about anomalous warm temps recorded at LAF yesterday: "Chad Evans tweeted this at 4:34 PM today: Just hit 87 w/ dew point of 51 here at the station! All the fields are planted @ once, so these darker, bare soils are really warm! Noticed warmest temps are over drier, black sandy-loam prairie soils today at 86-88. Wetter, brown soils 82-84. He followed up with: ...noticed Champaign, Covington to Morocco....all really warm. Heat rolling off 1000s acres of that bare, black ground!"

My wife had similar symptoms the day after her second shot of Moderna. The following day she felt perfectly fine.

It looks like the Crazy Uncle may finally get committed: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56840169?xtor=AL-72-[partner]-[bbc.news.twitter]-[headline]-[news]-[bizdev]-[isapi]&at_custom3=%40BBCWorld&at_custom1=[post+type]&at_medium=custom7&at_custom2=twitter&at_campaign=64&at_custom4

lol You posted that at the same time I was typing up a reply. Yours is much more succinct though. lol

Studies have shown that F2 and above tornadoes are 15 times more likely when the MJO is in phase 8, 1 and 2. As the MJO moves through 8 into 1, it usually correlates with a collapse of the Pacific jet and creating a semi stationary long wave trough near the four corners, which in turn allows short waves to eject into tornado alley. Dr. Gensini at NIU has written about it and I was able to attend a workshop where he used May 19-30, 2019 as a prime example (map below). He is researching it for use as a tool in sub seasonal forecasting. If it plays out like it did in '19, a lot of outlooks of an active mid- and late severe season will verify. The GEFS forecasts this scenario from days 9-14 before going zonal (day 10 below.)

I think you're right. That would explain the discrepancy. Any way you look at it, the trends in deaths are the best they've been since the onset.

https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm?fbclid=IwAR3CFm09EUk2AjKgLB0aSiJ1AQ65zVhb-lSFPjjhtdqCfhIna0ULNreHLAc

I noticed that for Indiana, the seven day moving average death rate dropped to 4 yesterday. That is the lowest moving average since 3/25/2020 when the pandemic really started to take off. Now cases have been creeping back up, but I really like that the death rate is at 4 a day and still dropping.

IND continues to set records: RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 721 AM EDT WED APR 21 2021 ...RECORD LOW AT INDIANAPOLIS THIS MORNING... A RECORD LOW OF 26 OCCURRED AT INDIANAPOLIS EARLY THIS MORNING... APRIL 21ST. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD LOW OF 28 DEGREES SET ON THIS DATE IN 1907.

Finished with 4.1" from 0.49" liquid. One of the IWX mets nailed it a few days when he said that it was shaping up to be a one in 50 or 100 year event.

Guys, save your breath. I already responded to him earlier and he blew me off. Might have something to do with relocating from the south to IND. The laughable thing to me is that sometime in the future, ALL advisories are going away.

FWA is obliterating their record snowfall for the date (0.2"-1953). 2.4" at 7:00 (Eastern) and still getting heavy snow.

Pound town. 3.6" and still falling. Top 3 event. Seriously.

Yes, but it certainly would be less deadly if a higher percentage of people just get the vaccine. I do understand and agree with what you are saying though.

With all of the talk of herd immunity, I don't think we'll ever get there, based on local vaccination numbers. Although I live in a rural county, I believe we are a microcosm of vast rural areas of the US as a whole. As of yesterday, 31% of our population age 18+ have been fully vaccinated. Our local shot clinic operated by the County health department can vaccinate ~400 individuals a day. This is in addition to three other pharmacies providing vaccinations. The good news is that 79% of those 65 and older have been vaccinated. However, starting this week, the reservation numbers have dropped dramatically, to the point of shutting down the clinic this Thursday due to lack of reservations (not completely, just for that day.) At this rate, I'm estimating that only a little over 50% of the 18+ age group will be vaccinated by July 1st. Without some emphasis being placed on reducing vaccine hesitancy, this may become the Vietnam of pandemic battles.

Expecting 3" here overnight. I'm sure that after my 7AM CoCoRaHS measurement, it will quickly disappear. However, I am looking forward to the possibility of getting some thunder graupel on Wednesday.

3"-5" is the official criteria for a snow advisory at IND. However, an advisory is something that is flexible, unlike a warning. It is more at the discretion of the forecaster based on impacts. For example, a 2" snow in November might warrant an advisory, based on being the first possibility of slick roads for the season. In this case, even if 3" falls, they may take into consideration warm pavement temps and not expecting hazardous road conditions to not issue an advisory.

I actually egged that on, as she is a friend of mine. She, like me, loves gardening and is a heat miser. The other day she posted on her FB page, "The forecast is officially disgusting the next week. That is all." I teased her by saying it would make a good Long Term AFD. So for the past two days since she has been working the forecast desk, she has been playing it up in her discussions. As far as the Gordon Lightfoot reference, she grew up in Michigan and is a big promoter of boating and rip current safety on Lake Michigan. I cheer the models on all winter hoping to bullseye, then when mid-April comes and I switch into mushroom hunting, fishing, and gardening mode, I cheer the models on for a miss to the north, so I agree with her not wanting snow at the end of April.