TWCCraig
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Everything posted by TWCCraig
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If NYC doesn't get 8 more freezes by the end of the month, this winter (Dec-Feb) will have the fewest number of minimum temperatures below 32 degrees on record. NYC has 24 so far December through February Rank Season Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Missing Count 1 2022-2023 24 18 2 1997-1998 32 0 3 2011-2012 33 0 4 2016-2017 35 0 - 2001-2002 35 0 6 2015-2016 36 0 7 2019-2020 38 0 - 1931-1932 38 0 9 1998-1999 41 0 10 1982-1983 42 0 If we count the whole season from fall to spring, 2012 looks tough to beat but top 5 is very possible October 1st through May 10th Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Oct 1 to May 10 Missing Count 1 2023-05-10 27 89 2 2012-05-10 37 0 3 2002-05-10 47 0 4 2020-05-10 48 0 - 2016-05-10 48 0 6 2017-05-10 49 0 - 1998-05-10 49 0 8 1999-05-10 52 0 9 1983-05-10 53 0 10 1991-05-10 54 0
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60 and sunny Awesome day
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It wasn't the radiational cooling this time, it was cold air advection. The core of the cold was to our north & east, so places north & east saw colder temps than those further west.
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3.6 for the low here The maps from the Euro a few days ago showing well below 0 here didn't verify, but we ended up colder than models like the GFS/CMC. A blend of these models had the best forecast. I recently pointed out how the Euro was too cold, particularly over the ocean. Case in point, this morning 6z Euro initialized with -15 for Provincetown on Cape Cod. However, the coldest it got there was around -4. It's interesting that this model has some sort issue when extremely cold air masses move over water. It doesn't make sense for it to be -15 in Provincetown, but only -10 in Boston.
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Euro is still way too cold. Pretty amazing that 24 hours out it'll have a forecast for -17 in Provincetown, on Cape Cod, surrounded by water. In fact, the Euro has the entire Gulf of Maine below 0 all the way to the 40/70. It's not going to get that cold over 40+ degree ocean.
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We need the 31st to stay above freezing the entire day which may be tough. Otherwise it would be a tie
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Pretty cool sky for a winter day. Sunshine and dark ominous clouds to the north
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26 coldest temp so far this January. Absolutely unreal. Reminds me a bit of December 2015, even though that was warmer compared to normal.
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Finally getting some snow here
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Still no freezes yet in NYC this January. This could make a run for top 3. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Missing Count 1 2023 0 19 2 1932 4 0 3 2006 10 0 - 1990 10 0 5 2020 11 0 - 2002 11 0 - 1933 11 0 8 2017 12 0 - 1950 12 1 10 2012 13 0 - 1998 13 0 12 1880 14 0 13 1937 15 0 - 1906 15 0 15 2021 16 0
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This has been trending west for some time now
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NYC will definitely make a run for the fewest amount of minimum temperatures below 32 in January. Might not see a freeze until the end of the month. Insane to think about, what is usually the coldest month of the year that we can't even get a single freeze
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NYC tied the record at 66 with the latest hourly observation. 000SXUS71 KOKX 041746RERNYCRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY1246 PM EST WED JAN 4 2023...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT CENTRAL PARK NY...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 WAS TIED AT CENTRAL PARK NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1950.THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO RISE.ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).$$
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RGEM and GEM-LAM nailed today's temperatures. They were the only models showing 60+ temps for LI, until the HRRR did as well. They were the only models showing the possibility of 70+ degrees in NJ
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ISP already broke their record at 65 64 here and starting to fall slowly. Sea breeze might be kicking in now
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Temperatures could end up higher if there's less clouds tomorrow. HRRR would tie the record at NYC at 66 (1950). RGEM has 68 in the city. Newark and places S&W of the city could see 70s. NWS has 58 for me, I think we reach 60 here at least
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RGEM and the higher resolution HRDPS both have 70's for Wednesday
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No CAA. Strong winds like we had with the past cold snap help to even the surface temps out more. With strong winds, temps are more uniform. On days like today with no CAA, rural and suburban sites see radiational cooling, which doesn't happen in the city because of UHI. With an incoming warm air mass, the warm air is basically "overrunning" the cold air since warm air is less dense, meaning you have warming aloft but a lot of low level cold air still in place which can take longer to mix out. This time of year we can get some crazy inversions with warm air aloft and colder temps at the surface. Not the correct thread, but some places will see 60 today!
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With how close some observation sites came to reaching 50 degrees today, I think it's pretty likely that tomorrow will reach and/or exceed 50 degrees.
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2017 Though that was more/less a below average month in general with a few warmups here and there. Last week of Dec was very cold, over a week of sub-freezing highs
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A sad day for what is a great website for GOES satellite data. Doesn't affect our area but it was cool being able to see the entire western hemisphere (both north & south). Bandwidth issues... any other great satellite websites out there?
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Flakes flying in West Islip
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28.8 or 29 if you round, was the low here before clouds moved in
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34 already, should freeze easily tonight. Will be the first freeze of the season
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