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TWCCraig

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Everything posted by TWCCraig

  1. I'm not saying that asking for average temps is a stretch but everyday isn't average, especially with how springs (particularly April) are around here it's tough to expect sustained nice weather. I'm just saying if it was a week of 75+, not many would complain.
  2. I hope so. If it's 65 and sunny I'll gladly take that, but there's always the possibility of backdoor fronts, clouds, and wind
  3. Don't know how much stock to put into it, but the weeklies are below average for most of May, and they were below average for most of April too
  4. It's a problem when a 75+ degree day in March is talked about like it's "just a nice spring day", but 40 and rain in April is "well below average". I think some have an unrealistic expectation that the weather should be 60+ daily in the spring and that just isn't the case in the northeast. People do want warmer weather which is part of the reason why many move south. I always look at the record lows and see how much colder it could be, that should be put into perspective when people want to talk about how cold it is. It's been said before, people are getting used to the warmer weather. The general public wouldn't bat an eye if April was +3, but they would if it was -3, that's for sure.
  5. 67 here, 53 two miles to my east, the real BDCF. First front that came through was more like a sea breeze, from the north shore...
  6. 30° difference between north and south shores
  7. Up to 79 with west wind, front should be here very soon Absolutely wild how much warmer it is right now on the south shore than the north shore
  8. The HRRR had this well modeled as well, only difference was the NAM never showed 80+ degrees, classic lol Interesting enough, the sea breeze actually got pushed back, my winds are now due west
  9. 77 50 in Kings Park, meanwhile it still in the 70's out to Shirley
  10. 77 with SW winds. The front is coming through faster over the water than it is on land, as modeled. Should have another hour or so of warmth
  11. Briefly peaked at 82, sea breeze just came through but we still have SW flow so temps aren't falling dramatically
  12. 66 so far, clouds beginning to clear so temps should sky rocket. Westhampton already at 70. Winds are coming from the W to WSW so that's good for us on LI, should be warm until at least 5 or 6pm
  13. Weatherbell has been using the same color scale for years on their maps in fahrenheit. The maps in Celsius are different and have red starting around 35C
  14. People forget it snowed in May 2020, so getting cold late into spring isn't unheard of. Fwiw, most of the water near the coast is running slightly above normal from the Gulf of Maine down to the Delmarva. We had the same phantom "cold pool" last year to our northeast and it was gone by summer
  15. I think those anomalies are indicative of a shifting Gulf stream and not long term shifts or trends. But I'm no expert or anything when it comes to this. This was March 2024, last year, similar cold blobs and warm blobs. By June the cold blobs were mostly gone as the Gulf stream shifted north and warmer weather came:
  16. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe those cold anomalies have more to do with where the Gulf stream is at the moment. The Gulf stream isn't stationary and moves over time, sometimes it's further north or south than normal and those anomalies are indicating just that. The Gulf stream is further south than it usually is right now, which is why you have large positive anomalies just south of the cold anomalies. The shelf water near the coast is actually above normal. Looking at SST maps, the same thing was happening this time last year, by June the cold anomalies were gone
  17. You're right, averages don't paint the whole picture, but I was bringing them up to make a point that it's typically a lot cooler when you're right near the water in the spring. In April 2020, the warmest day was only 64 at ISP, so it has happened before if you get a below average April. Even when we do hit 70+ in April, it usually doesn't last long before a sea breeze comes through unless you have solid offshore flow. As for the ocean making weather boring, I hear ya, but it can make weather interesting in some respects imo. I love extremes too. We've missed out on 100 degrees temps in the summer because of ocean influence.
  18. I think if you polled the general public they would probably say that temps have been near "normal" for March. However, today's average high for ISP is only 48, and were going near 60 today. So 50's and 60's is above average for LI in March. The average high for Islip does not reach 60 degrees until April 19th; 70 degrees until May 22nd. If you lived right on the water, it would never seem warm unless you have a good offshore wind. For example, there could be a day where it gets pretty warm briefly in the morning (I.E. 65°), but by the afternoon the sea breeze comes through making it much colder. The official high would be 65, even though the temp at 3pm would be closer to 55, closer to "normal". In other words, the ocean is great at modulating
  19. Speaking of dust storms, there's one ongoing right now you can see on the visible satellite
  20. Agree, there's no need for the sun to be up at 4am in the summer and twilight would begin around 3am. That gets lost a lot in these conversations about permanent standard time. Personally, I'd much rather have that light in the evening when the vast majority of people are awake. I don't mind an 8am sunrise in the winter, we're already waking up and going to work in the dark. I'd much rather have the daylight when I get home. It would help if you're doing anything outside. Everyone has their preferences, there's nothing wrong with what anyone prefers. This debate will resurface again come November lol I digress, it's 45 and partly cloudy, another windy day on tap
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