mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Short of a turnaround never seen, Gfs beats the Euro too.
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Gfs and Canadian are next to nothing literally.
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I said after next week because all the ensembles have Pacific warm moving eastward across the country by 3/1 and it's warm. That leaves less than a week between the end of next week and 3/1. But I did keep the door open for a fluke.
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With the Euro, it's just too amped. Been like that ever since that failed upgrade in 2018 imho.
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Operationals are just heading toward their ensemble means.
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Gun to head, after next week I think my snow threats are toast. Nothing short of a fluke that's not on any model is all there is imby.
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The truly wild swings is what is so laughable.
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Lost the Icon. Little or no snow in PA.
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I remember it because my car got stuck 2 blocks from my house and these 3 guys came out of nowhere and pushed me out of the 10-12" of snow in the road between the storm a few days before and that storm.
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Another miss on the AI. Here's how it does it. Basically the tpv becomes a wrecking ball and just drops in too fast and is big. Scroll forward from this spot. It's the only 500mb map worth anything from the AI. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202502151800&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502191800
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World peace? You saw too many reruns of Groundhog Day, Groundhog Day, Gro...
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I think we need the bleeding to stop by getting 2 or 3 runs to hold steady, then hope the north trend begins to put the forum back where we were yesterday and Thursday with the primo runs.
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As the Euro comes out, all I'll be looking at is the tpv. Does it stay intact well and does it lag behind vs 12z are going to predict the outcome vs 12z imho.
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The models are simply unable to produce an accurate forecast 5 days or more in advance, and that's being kind.
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That would also explain why the Ukie ensembles didn't do better because despite the greater amplification, it didn't produce because the tpv was further west.
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There is some precip north, but not much vs VA was my point.
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Actually, it's south with the precip. VA does best. Different from last 2 runs.
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Yeah, you can see how paltry the precip is this run because the N stream isn't sucking it north.
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That's what was going to say. We're relying in the southern stream and that's getting pushed east. Idk, just a thought.
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24hr precip
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Slp member 6z vs 12z
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We get just about nothing and the metros get shaved too. Speaking generally for the forum.
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Helped some with snowfall, but still centered SE unfortunately.
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120hrs. When do I stop? Lol
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Bigger difference at 114. More amped and further west. None of that wimpy azz crap like the Euro.
