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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Cfs2 and Euro are starting to look verrrrry similar. Still have the NMME, Jamstec and JMA fwiw. In the end, the +precip looks to be a lock, so it'll be up to whether we can squeeze just enough cold air from the north. I could see a train of disturbances coming along with the first being rain, but pulling down enough cold in its wake to setup snow in the follow-up system; or even rain to snow or snow to rain prevailing throughout the season. I think we should have a hint of our chances by Thanksgiving since the 5H looks pretty uniform thru the winter months.
  2. mitchnick
    Yep. It's gorgeous outside. Anyway, the only thing that matters now is to maintain the +NAO thru October and hope that turns into a - NAO for winter. And fwiw, 12z runs of both the Gefs and Geps do just that solidly +NAO today thru the end of their runs (ending 10/21.)
  3. mitchnick
    I'll try this again. Lol I like how the Euro has 850 temp anomalies for most of the forum under 1C for the DJF period. The SLP for the periid is tasty too. Sorry about the 850 map, but that's all money can buy you on the free site. Bncho?
  4. mitchnick
    Monthly temp and precip care of bncho in MA forum.
  5. mitchnick
    I believe @Weather Will and @CAPE would have monthly Euro seasonal maps. Hint, hint...!
  6. mitchnick
    Updated October Euro seasonal out. Temos around the same as September.'s. But a little wetter than September. These maps are for DJF combined fyi. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000 https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000
  7. mitchnick
    Euro a little wetter this run vs September for the DJF period. Probably noise. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000
  8. mitchnick
    Euro monthly October out Here's temps. Similar to September. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000 Here's all other product link: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
  9. mitchnick
    But a beautiful +NAO. lol
  10. mitchnick
    Today’s aren't out yet.
  11. mitchnick
    Ensembles continue with the +NAO too.
  12. mitchnick
    Well considering of all the people in the world that die from temperature extremes, cold causes outnumber warm by a ratio of 9-to-1, I must be doing the right thing for humanity.
  13. mitchnick
    That's crazy. Beautiful blue skies with just some high clouds in Hanover. .3" yesterday
  14. mitchnick
    Speaking of the Nam, I just saw in the NE forum the NWS has extended its life until 11/3.
  15. mitchnick
    With all my weather links, this showed up in my YouTube feed.
  16. mitchnick
    I agree. But most modeling was going in a different direction and some were questioning whether this Niño was coupling.
  17. mitchnick
    It all waxes and wanes. Nothing new in the earth's history will come of it. But I can see how using RONI could "upset" some who think (or make a living from) the end of the world is coming.
  18. mitchnick
    So anything that dares to minimize CC can't be better. Typical coming from the paid CC spokesman, Ben Knoll.
  19. mitchnick
    They were pretty good last winter with maintaining the cold. I haven't followed them since March.
  20. mitchnick
    Euro weeklies say "not so fast." https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202610020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202610120000
  21. mitchnick
    Euro weeklies say "what a way to run an historic warm Niño. " @GaWx https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202610020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202610120000
  22. mitchnick
    Don't know if anyone noticed, but many of the MR models are showing a big hit of BN over the Conus east of the Mississippi at the end of their runs for the past few days. 18z EuroAi and Gfs are pretty impressive with 12z support on the Gefs and Geps. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026100218&fh=360 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026100218&fh=384 Edit: Euro weeklies are on board too as the first 3 weeks (surprisingly) are BN in much of the east. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202610020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202610120000
  23. mitchnick
    But cool air is on the way and not far away for that matter. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/hazards?obs=true&wfo=ctp&hazard=true&hazard_type=all&hazard_opacity=80&tab=legend
  24. mitchnick
    The October "mother of all WWB" has been on the Cfs2 for close to 2 months. Hard to believe with that model, but true nonetheless.
  25. mitchnick
    On the + side, it likely means it's a stronger push of colder air. I'll take that as a "not so negative" considering temp will likely be our biggest problem come December.
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