mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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I love how the Euro completely pulled the threat it was advertising at 150hrs at 12z and 144hrs at 18z on last night's 0z run (it's not there on 6z either.) So I feel even more confident than yesterday in saying the Euro fooked us again. Lol
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The Euro was never so gung ho. It's right when it says no, and rarely right these days when it says yes.
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Same here. Trying to figure out what's going on short of just an old fashion screwgy.
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With all the operational runs showing a miss to the south, ensembles have yet to support them no matter which model is showing it.
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Lol. No sooner, and steady flakes have started.
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It metered out here. There's got to be a dry layer eating it. Once it moistens, it'll come down pretty good considering radar returns.
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And that fast, first flakes.
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Radar just filled in over mby in a matter of 15 minutes. Should start to see some flakes here and to my west very soon. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad
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Everything on Rap from this morning thru Monday.
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Best ensemble snowfall and agreement of the year, if not century if you consider there'sno one identifiable, imminent threat..literally! 0z Eps, Geps, and Gefs in that order.
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3k not as far west, but west of 18z.
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I'm not disagreeing per se, there were some other comments and I just wanted to explain my brief post. To jump 10 degrees from 12z was enough to fook us was my only point. But, it'll be different come 0z, so fook it again!
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3k Nam also with 2.5"
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0z Rap likes us too!
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Yeah, look how the 0z Hrrr loves Hanover with those 2.5" dabs.
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It's very warmish. 18z had us in the mid and Upper 40's and 12z had us in the mid to upper 30's. I couldn't explain my post because I was walking into a meeting. 12z had a 1-2" event for many, but with temps 10 degrees warmer, hence my comment that it fooked us.
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18z euro fooks us at the end of the run.
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AiGfs looks juicy. I think it's mostly snow away from the beach?
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Flurries imby fwiw
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Look at radar. Snow aloft. Looks and feels like it too. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad
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I'm trying to get myself from looking beyond 24 hours before this "hobby" kills me! Lol
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Rap looks nice for many.
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
mitchnick replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Maybe if the Gfs could pump out multiple runs in a row showing similar results, it could be believed. The run-to-run inconsistencies are abhorrent. And in case you're wondering where I got that word, my wife has been using it a lot lately. -
Nam replacement
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3k Nam closer to reality probably.
