mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Seems to me we probably have just 1 shot at a big storm before the cold dump. Gunna' stink if we fail with it.
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Just lt snow now. There's a heavy band incoming but it'll just clip me or miss altogether. Again, to my east will get hit. I suspect Mappy should get another 2"+ out of this.
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I'm right on the western edge of better stuff. Mappy will do much better. The Nam replacement was showing this best if I rrcall.
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Woke up 20 minutes ago and the sky is filled with fatties quickly accumulating.
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Rap and Hrrr are around 1-1.5" at best for those with a shot.
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Latest Srefs
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Sorry, but I'd take that in a heartbeat. I don't care what prior runs showed.
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Pivotal shows 3-4", with a bullseye of 6" on the Cape.
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Ninja'd!
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That's one hell of a big molar in nw Virginia. Quite the dental office there, I'm sure.
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Crazy how Gefs and EuroAI snowfall is very similar thru 300hrs. Similar, but not good. Clearly, modeling is favoring as of now suppression and is unimpressed with anything else for us. The straw we can grasp for now is it's too far to be confident of anything.
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Gotta' give it credit. It learns fast. Lol
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I think we can laugh in 6 hours for this one.
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Hey...a usual suspect!
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That's close enough for 180hrs away. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026011718&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Euro wasn't into this morning either and it overperformed the Euro forecast x5 in some places like Mappyland and other northern MD locations and x2 imby. The most/more conservative runs of the mesos prevailed over the globals this morning imho. I'll roll with the same winners tomorrow since it's a similar looking system in some ways.
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That's not far off the deck at all. Higher elevations in Howard, Carroll and Baltimore counties should be able to overcome it...hopefully.
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@TSSN+ We're officially hugging the 3k Nam.
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Eps likes late next weekend and not suppression.
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So there's nothing else on the Euro that's threat worthy?
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I think he prefers to sip it.
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Euro AI thru 288hrs lol
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I cannot recall any winter when central and Southern VA scored first they didn't have a better winter to us relative to average. If anyone can remember one, shout it out.
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Fwiw, Icon had potential at the end of its 12z run.
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Canadian cold has won out this year. I think suppression is a bigger concern.
