mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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6hrs snowfall off latest Sref. Pretty far north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_006h-mean-imp&rh=2026012015&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Now aren't you just better than everyone else.
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That 2nd part from the u/l low is where you'll potentially see the 20:1 stuff.
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This is 6z same time. That trough in Canada is further south this run and looks a bit stronger. That could be messing up the full phase for now.
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Close enough at this range though.
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Part 2 will have terrific ratios.
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We haven't had the MJO shift to Niño phases until now.
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The sole purpose of the Gfs is to torment JI.
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Tough crowd lol
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Doesn't stop until Monday morning or Noon.
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And we love you too GGEM.
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Looks to be long duration too
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Icon trough not as strong or neutral as 6z Euro, so it doesn't prolong precip like Euro would...give it time and it will change.
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Icon looking like 0z GGEM
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At 81hrs, Nam incredibly similar to 6z Euro
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Note the trajectory is more sw/ne. That's great to see.
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Eps Snowfall. North creep continues. 0z on bottom for comparison.
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Euro 144hrs 700mb RH map. Southwesterly winds pumping in Gulf moisture all the way back to central Missouri. Yeah...it's gunna' keep snowing for a while after the 144hr panel.
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If you look at the progression of the Euro, it brings the northern stream trough down with a delay that allows the Baja low to fully ejected and the 2 combined/phased are what we get with that 5H anomaly map I posted.
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At 144hrs, the slp is sitting over Nags Head with the 50/50 feeding in cold air and the midwest trough pulling in the Gulf moisture while the slp is sorta stuck. Oh boy!
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And look where the main trough is! It's going to be snowing for a while after that and ratios will be 2/10/10-like potentially.
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Euro another small tick slower this run.
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If that northern stream trough on the Euro was to sharpen some, it could tug the coastal back, or hold it in place an additional 3-6 hours, then we're not in business but in trouble. Lol
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The snowfall pattern on the Euro last night tells me it'll come further north and even up thru NE should do well. They already did OK on 0z, but I'll bet it gets better for them...and probably us too.
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With that much qpf, who cares? Anyway, the weight of that much snow always compacts.
