mitchnick

6z Euro AI had the Sunday system that looks more like a colder version of last Tuesday, but a slightly different evolution. AI changes a lot, so we'll see what happens at 12z. Probably a SC/NC bullseye as it corrects to the seasonal trends.

It'll change at 12z, but putting the 5H anomalies in motion, the ridge to our east was building, so I would wag it comes through too warm.

Interesting look on Cfs2 lately for January and February. 500mb https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025120800&fh=1 Temps https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025120800&fh=1 Precip https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2025120800&fh=1 P.s. March may be acceptable too.

Don't know if it's lasts, but Cfs2 is liking the trough in SE/Southern Canada for January and February with BN temps in the NE both months and average precip in January and AN in February. 500mb https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025120800&fh=1 Temps https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025120800&fh=1 Precip https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

Wayyyyy too early to say that my friend. But I'll take a breakdown for a while as we desperately need a reshuffle.

6z Euro has it, but a bit weaker.

Odd. Oisst shows it predominantly below normal as of 12/6. Something isn't right, not that it matters.

Maybe the case, I haven't checked, but November and the beginning of December that year was a polar opposite temp-wise in the east to this year.

We had the SSW (barely) a few weeks ago which threw the models going warm for a loop. Now we have another Stratosphere warming, though not a technical SSW with negative winds, coming around the 15th per attachment. I think we'll need to wait until after the 20th-25th to see how that effects the AO/NAO.

And it was AN for November and December and we've seen how that's turned out. All those seasonal models, except the Cansips, are seemingly programmed for AN as the default.

Long range warm-ups have generally been muted or reversed this season. So anyone hoping for lower heating bills better be prepared for no end. The pattern has to break at some point, of course, with February being the likely time frame if January fails. The problem remains snowfall as usual.

Not so sure about the Christmas torch, at least according to yesterday's Euro weeklies. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512060000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202512150000

Miserable runs for many.

Pattern sets up and then you're fighting it all winter. I'm tired of doing it but it's been the case ever since I moved to here. It's either north, south, east, or west after a long string of years when I lived in MD and Hanover jackpoted. I am snakebit.

Gefs says yes, Eps has a ridge rolling in at 348hrs. Don't fall in love with either possibility, but Eps has been warm in the LR this fall/early winter fwiw.

I remember that vividly. Have a number of pics from that day in anticipation due to some funky clouds and during the event. I think Bob Chill was in his garage enjoy I ng it if memory serves.

Didn't see that, but the NWS forecast was cloudy.

Got a dusting and coming down pretty good. This wasn't in the forecast.

Here too to my surprise

Actually,it was intended to be a bit facetious, but accurate, joke. He actually pointed out good numbers on the SOI showing the Niña fading, but the SOI numbers themselves were "negative."

Do you always have to be so negative?

That makes 2 of us!

That post was based on the 12z runs. There have been 4 runs since and the AI has come up with 4 different forecasts. Apparently, it needs my time to learn.

Updated Euro seasonal out and it can't get out of its own way insisting on AN temps in the east. Don't buy it as mby has been BN for October and November contrary to the Eps seasonal. Heck, even September was only +.5F, also cooler than forecasted. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_l.html