mitchnick

0z Nam's heights are higher this run thanks to further south confluence which h results in a flatter flow.

18z Euro does and it looks like it.

lol AI further east if that was possible. Looks a lot like 18z euro. Nothing of consequence in the metros.

Let me be honest. You don't have to spend the time finding any data because you're not going to change my mind. That's my opinion and I didn't post it in any effort to change anyone else's. Why? Because there are more cities to our south than DC. I have 14.5" and Sby has more than me to name just 1. Maybe it's different where you live and that's why you have a different opinion. That's fine, but I have no intent or desire to change your opinion on the winter. I've been wasting my time in life as a weenie since the winter of 72/73. As such, there comes a point in a disappointing winter as this one (<50% of average snowfall) when you say No Mas. I'm there. I'm numb. Great if it does snow and great if it doesn't.

I vividly remember that storm living in Glen Burnie waiting for my house in Linthicum to be built. Law school friend's wife was an airline attendant and she worked the Sby TO BWI to Raleigh circuit throughout the day on a Dash8. She said they were flying out of BWI heading east to Sby and as soon as they were over the Chesapeake Bay they hit snow. I drove down to Gibson Island on the Chesapeake Bay that day and couldn't see the eastern shore which is otherwise clearly visible. We had flurries in Glen Burnie and that was it. What a nutcracker that storm was and why I remember it so vividly. Of course, my same law school friend who lives in Sby texted me multiple times already today for updates from me because he's a weenie too. Lol

Too many threats and not enough scores. I feel like we've been in the red zone 8 or 9 times this winter with 1 TD and 2 FG's to show for it. Enough already. I can accept Spring and the normal sleep that comes with it. It really won't bother me if we're done for the year. And I'll reiterate what I said at the beginning of January...we really want to be in the bullseye with the first legit storm of the season because the seasonal trend often shows itself with that storm.

At least we don't have to wait to have our dreams smashed.

Funny you mention 12/20, because it was the Nam that was first to pull that system north putting the jackpot in north central PA from mby giving them 20"+ of snow and me 7" with sleet and some zr.

If everyone recalls, the January 20 event that screwed the metros were originally showing the storm to form on the first front and not the trailing Arctic front. JB insisted it would form on the Arctic front and it did, which caused it to be warm in areas to the Metros and burbs south and east. If this follows suit, we could have a winner with the Nams. In that case it was only the Canadians that showed it on the Arctic front for days before. They then started to give in but not to the extent of other modeling.

Still snowing too

Still snowing too

Last one

Higher heights at 55 and 57 hrs on east coast I ast.

Higher heights continue on Nam at 57hrs. I'll be surprised if this is bad.

Nam has higher heights onbthe east coast this run at 54hrs

Wildcard rain are nuts here.

JB update This is really pretty interesting. The better the upper air pattern goes with the negatives coming right through the slot, the further out the model pushes the storm. Well at the very least if it’s right I’ll get to see something that I can’t recall seeing. That kind of negative should produce an I 95 blizzard DC to Boston So the call from February 11 remains if I have to change it I’ll change it on Tuesday because until this feature comes out of the Rockies I’ve said too many of these flip flop around. If you’re standing on the ledge don’t jump off yet Last edited12:50 PM · Feb 16, 2025 from Pennsylvania, USA

Completely losing the ridging out front.

AI east again

In case you were wondering how different the Nam looked to the Euro at 84hrs.

Euro looks like the others and not the Nam.