mitchnick

Avalon Pier NC stealing our storm. https://avalonpier.com/piercam/

It does drop in a big chunk of cold air into the conus at the end. I think you're better off getting the Vitamin D supplements for now.

12z AI warm/wet, cold/dry.

FYI, upgraded Euro AI starts Tuesday next week in case you or anyone else missed it.

Snow just starting in VA Beach. Lot of NC beach cams at this link too if interested. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/virginia-beach-web-cam/

Another Williamsburg snow https://www.colonialwilliamsburg.org/webcams/

Can't make it up. Lol

AI way warm as storm heads to our west then veers right over us. AI throws a bone at the end of the run with a rain to snow for 3/4-5. Lol

I don't know what we want on models anymore, except for consistency and accuracy, and that ain't happening any time soon. Honestly, I'm done with winter. If it snows it snows, if it doesn't it doesn't. I'm tired of wasting money to heat my house. Bring on the warmth.

That storm on day 9/10 goes mainly to our west this run and gives us some snow on the back side....yeah right.

I very rarely take 95 and have gone 50 to 13 to 64 over the BBT 4 or 5 times. We usually go down Rt. 3 to a left on Rt. 5 at Waldorf, do an end around the rest of Waldorf, make a right on Rt. 418, I think, that takes you to the last traffic light in La Plata, make a left on Rt. 3 and then Rt. 17 to 64 just west of Newport News. It's not the fastest route, but once you get to the last light in La Plata, it's an easy trip until you approach 64 and then once on 64, it's a crap shoot what traffic will be like. Plus, there are plenty of places to stop. When we worked and lived in MD, our weekend getaway trips were usually to Williamsburg, so after going every which way for years, I came up that Rt. 3 to 5 to 17.

I said earlier the 28th thru 3/10 figuring some weekend luck. But it won't happen, so...

Nam want to drop 1-1.5" on me with the ull. Lol

My wag is 2/28-3/10. Nothing before of consequence and nothing after, if at all, with south and east of us favored.

We would need a fluke in every sense of the word. No one can say for certain, but I just don't see US getting a fluke snow. If any place it would be DC, BWI, SBY, or RIC in all likelihood based on the pattern.

Nice choice. I made my OBX vacation today so I have summer on my mind. I'm really, really ready to move on from consecutive winter failure number 4.

Today’s weeklies are not screaming cold if they are correct and suggest that the cold on the Eps will be short lived. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202502180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202503030000

I'm pretty ticked how cold Eps and Gefs are in the LR. Nothing will change snow-wise. I feel pretty sure about it. Just another cold Nina spring with nothing to show for it.

You're just going to have to trust me on it.

I can.

End of run. Always the most accurate.

Idk how well the AI does with identifying threats in the Long range compared to the ensembles, but once a threat is within 7 days, the AI can't be ignored regardless of operationals and ensembles to the contrary imho.

You mean VA/NC Blizzard. At least amounts qualify for one.

Correct

Anybody look at the long range Gfs? Another NC/VA Blizzard. Lol