mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Compared to the runs of the last 5 days+ of the Gefs, there's finally some life in the 18z snowfall total. I didn't go into how or when. I'm looking for totals >1"!
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I thought he was dead!
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Gotta' look for hope somewhere and the Gem did look best among the 12z bunch that ran through 2 weeks+. So what the heck.
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I haven't gone into details on how and when it falls, but suffice to say the Geps has the best snowfall for the 12z run. I put the link to Pivotal if you want to delve into it further. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cmceens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2026010712&fh=6&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Is that for Niñas in particular or for all Enso states?
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It's just overrunning that unusually further south.
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There was a small uptick over 0z in ensemble snowfall, albeit meager. It's better than going the other way.
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That NW flow is killin' us.
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Euro Ai looks like garbage
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Just gunna post. Nice step toward something bigger and better.
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You can get a good idea on the short term at this link with the warming temps under the equatorial Pac and Cfs2 wind anomalies. I doubt we see much help this year with a westerly wind burst progged around the 1st of February. Probably too little, too late for this year, but positive for next (famous last words!) https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html
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I think everyone (ok, many) would take this!
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Sad that it's come down to making appointments for secs 2 weeks in advance.
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With all the cold air we've had and is progged to return, it would be the statistical anomaly of the last 100 years if the MA and ENE would continue near snowless for the rest of the winter. Otoh, it wouldn't shock me if we did, but central/southern VA and parts of NC cash in. That's textbook Niña of late and consistent with the "what happens in December the winter will remember" saying.
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What's amazing to me is how ENE was getting several inches on ensemble snowfall maps, but they are even cut back to barely an inch or 2. Crazy.
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We sure can use it. If there's anything we need, it's morals.
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I'd love to hear you get out of this one....
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Bam's Michael Clark looking a bit exasperated it would seem. https://youtube.com/shorts/hr8jn5FdW9w?si=2uUi4VUJhE5GN8w-
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How? It's a passage of a cold front after a period of decently AN temps that are slow to leave. Very little precip falls per the run before and after that 216hrs panel.
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One other thing. This look of the Eps with the ridge to our south guarantees imho the closing off of Gulf moisture. Cold and dry. Meh
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Nobody said that. The fact remains that we can't get anything to work without perfection, and there's no such thing as perfection in MA snowstorms outside of 1 every 12-15 years. I contend the general NW-->SE flow is the reason for storms failing to develop vs prior years and weak qpf output. If this doesn't change at some point, get used to ensemble progs the rest of the "cold enough to snow" season being right.
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It's been uncanny how several threats that look so promising while looking at 500mb end up just like that. Gfs had one last night.
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The differences between the end of the Gfs and AIGfs runs are beyond laughable.
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Let's see if the Euro's rain predictions at this range are as overblown as it's snow predictions at this range. My guess is Yes!
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Great...any snow?
