mitchnick

Not over and threats are later.

Time to watch is the rising back up after 12/28.

Last night's Euro had a very similar scenario, but a few days later and kept the bulk of the system to our south. Close enough, however, to qualify as a match in my weenie manual! Lol

Fwiw, 6z AIGFS has essentially the same threat as the Gfs, just a bit more "realistic"?

6z Gfs at 318hrs is best case scenario with this pattern.

Just gunna' post that the 6z Gfs has a couple of threats and the run hasn't ended. I think as the operational models detect that block, we'll start to see threats showing up along the cold air boundary.

0z AIGFS has 2 snow threats. One starting at 210hrs: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025121800&fh=210 The other threat starting at 288hrs: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025121800&fh=288 Unfortunately, neither Tropical Tidbits nor Pivotal have pretty surface maps showing snow, only precip. But if you use those TT links and look at Pivotal 850, 925 and surface temps, it's snow, or rain to snow depending on exact location.

In a word...blocking. See JI's post above.

We just need to steal a small and medium event before a decent pattern returns.

Thanks. How about the Gefs and Eps if you have them handy?

Congrats. Have you retired yet?

6z Gfs wants to ruin Christmas with zr/ip. It'll probably keep pushing cold south until Chill wins again. Lol

Gfs is one constipated mess right after Christmas.

Ggem says mix for us.

Saw that. We need that trough NW of Oregon to get pinched off and shoved to the west allowing the ridges in western Alaska and the American SW to link.

6z Gfs keeps it seasonal our side of the mountains.

Moderate snow in Hanover. No big deal. Euro's had it for days. 12z had a coating into MD and 1/2" up here.

It has been on the Euro for days actually, but nothing of consequence on other modeling. Just a front.

Euro had 1/2-3/4" on 12z run

Snowing moderately in Hanover

Bamwx's video out today supports that and the return to winter. Coincidentally, the video shows exactly what I posted yesterday to Larry that this Friday's cold front wasn't on modeling several days ago.

Bam wx update. I'm in!

Can't argue that they are a long shot or anything else you said, which explains my weenie interest in hoping for something sooner than later! Lol Idk about anyone else, but after it snows, a lot or a little, my need for the next fix is higher than when there's been nothing for an extended period.

I saw the 6z Gfs operational was showing some back end snow. The cold front is nearly neutral. Get it to go a little more negative and we have a shot.