mitchnick

No, but does mean that NA Snowcover will expand rapidly in October.

Time for this old man to do his daily 2.5 mile walk. If I never post again, you'll know why.

Fwiw, June's Euro monthly sea level pressure forecast thru October. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_mslp?area=GLOB&base_time=202406010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202407020000

Rapid cooling in the Pacific over the last 2 weeks. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

Personally, none of that bothers me about DT. Subtract from it a lot of it intended for the shock humor value, and there's little left imho. But I do think he relies on the Euro more than one should in light of the gains in other modeling. It just ain't what it used to be relative to other guidance, at least when it comes to winter forecasting in the MA imho. But it can still score a coup or 2 which forces you to give it more weight than you should, again imho.

Updated Euro plumes. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes?base_time=202406010000&nino_area=NINO3-4

1.12"

Heavy rains here for the past 2 hours with more to come it seems.

Drier out your way would probably suggest High Pressure overhead. Might result in more troughiness in the east...he says with gleam in his eyes. Or maybe that's just because I woke up at 4:30.

Nice site for solar activity. https://solen.info/solar/index.html

Lol. Petered out on my western doorstep to light showers. Not complaining.

1/4" from round 1 and getting ready for a drenching from that developing cluster along the MD/PA line. Bubbler should be getting rocked now.

Nasty cell entering Carroll County MD looks to miss me to the south...thankfully.

NC getting nasty. Warned storms under those clouds. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

Cooking now. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

<ducks> .4" from that line last night <ducks>

More bright orange aimed at me at 10:39pm. Hopefully it fall apart and drenches those who want/need it.

Ended up with a hair over .8" in 30 minutes.

Nah, I've mowed 6 or 7 times this year so far. Bad for me.

Looks to be a spin to the cell cluster in southern Frederick/Carroll Counties in MD. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

Of the 5 years I've been living here in Hanover, the rains has never been this loud on the roof. Can't imagine it possible in these parts to rain harder.

Came together at the last minute right over me. Getting crushed under orange returns. Exact opposite to last year's droight.

Line is taking its time heading east. Just had some thunder but nbd.

Question for me is whether the line can make it over Bubbler's Hill intact.

Hey, seasonal forecasts from most modeling was all in too with a decent east coast winter on balance, not to mention the Euro weeklies. Get the Indian Ocean to cool along with other global oceans along the lines of what most modeling is showing, and we'll have our chances this winter imho. But the modeling has got to be closer to right than wrong on the matter unlike their forecasts for last winter. Obviously, there's nothing pointing to a blockbuster winter in the east, but how often does that happen and be right? Some winters that looked cr@ppy on paper beforehand have managed to dump some decent snows imby when I lived near BWI, and they, plus a few more, did likewise in my current location.