mitchnick

Crazy ending to my walk just now. Came to an intersection a few blocks from my house and it's all residential. There are 7 deer. 3 split off of the group and head right toward me at about 50', so got behind a tree, and then they cut right. The other group were just watching around 100 feet away. Then 2 of the 3 that cut right came back from in between the houses in my general direction, but I had already walked away from the tree. Fortunately, they wanted no parts of me and went down the road and through an intersection. Fortunately, no cars. So I'm heading back around a block from there and 3 from the other group are no tearing down the center of my road as I was about to turn onto it and they went straight into a back yard to God knows where. I'm too damn old for this nature crap. I didn't move to Hanover to experience wildlife in the wilds of my neighborhood streets!

One thing I've noticed looking at this SSTA map is the recent cooling in the warm pool. Now, idk if this is more accurate than Oisst or Coral Reefs, but all 3 show cooling. Certainly, the map at my link seems more aggressive with temps getting a whole lot closer to normal. Anyway, it's just another piece that makes wonder if that cooling is weakening the extent of the Phases 4-5-6 effects on the Conus. Idk, just wondering. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Edit: Forgot to mention cooling IO too.

There's that gratuitous beachfront Niña storm/bliz. You knew it would show up eventually.

Snowman, I'm not disagreeing that right now looks like a Niña, but the majority of Niñas peak by the end of December and we haven't had one month of a -.5C in Enso 3.4 So unless you have a really odd Niña push, you're going to lose the Niña background before winter's end; and with a weak state, how much of a lag will hold over, idk. Plus, I can't help but believe that the cold is not at least, in part, due to a La Nada atmosphere.

To answer your question, yes, it was this year...or so it seemed! My point was more that this year "seemed" to have all the canonical earmarks of a warm Niña, considering recent history and seasonal model agreement. It may still end up that way, but considering how it has started and what MR guidance is showing, it's going to be awful ballzy to stick with an AN Conus for the rest of the winter imho.

Except for Raindance when he was hinting at the possibility before he exited, no forecaster or model suggested we'd see anything other than a torch this month. It may end AN imby and it may not. But I'm with Terpeast that there are more surprises ahead, and imho we may just want to throw out some of the old ways of thinking this winter because it's clear that nobody really knows how it's going to turn out. The only thing positive is that if anyone is worrying about a busted forecast, you'll likely have plenty of company. That said, I really only care about getting snow imby so despite a cold or warm winter, if it's another BN snowfall, it'll just go down as 1 more fail.

In fact, the way things are looking now, the greatest anomalous warmth in the next 2 weeks, and likely this month, will occur this week.

Looks like this guy agrees with me. And he posted after me so no games. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1865760465533722677

Gefs really are not a torch for us if you animate this. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfct_anom-p105090-imp&rh=2024120806&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

That's fair. But are there any other ways you'd prefer we insult you? I'd hate for you to take the insults personally.

Only with snow cover would those numbers, or anything reasonably close to them, be possible imho. That GEM is a real gem with overnight lows.

Maybe on the end of the run idea. Looks like a gradient setup and based on 850's, north of a horizontal line thru NYC would be the place to be. But it's all speculation that will be moot in 6 hrs.

6z Gfs operational is a surprisingly cold run vs recent ones....fwiw?

Problem with the Gefs map I posted and the maps you posted are the 10:1 ratios. We won't see that. A lot of white rain for the umpteenth time over the last few years.

The cold this week is going to outperform the cold last week. Believe me. Models have been going colder and colder.

6z Gefs seems to like snow chances more than operational 6z

Not that I disagree with the 2 week warm period, but this trough/cold later this week is trending noticeably colder than just 2 days ago. Imby, it's looking colder than the cold this past week. But that will just be glossed over by most. P.s. That's a cold run on the 6z Gfs fwiw

Wait till' you get old.

Having the cold drapped across southern Canada is reassuring we have a close source of cold to tap unlike many previous years. L

Today’s weeklies run look as good or better than yesterday with again, only 1 warmish week across entire central and eastern US.

Snowman may have a thought or 2 why the WB maps are colder. Might want to ask him...and then duck!

Larry, Tip posted this yesterday in the NE forum, which "may" be related to it, idk as I really didn't bother to look into it. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61325-december-2024-best-look-to-an-early-december-pattern-in-many-a-year/?do=findComment&comment=7489944

What I wasn't prepared for when we went out was it was not smooth. It was a bunch of slippery, sharp-edged chunks in varying sizes. I almost fell a couple of times and still remember thinking how lucky I was I didn't because I know I'd have been real sorry if I had. Lol

In January 77', couple of friends and I went to Sandy Point State Park on the west side of the Chesapeake Bay bridge and walked out on the frozen Chesapeake Bay around 200'. Once in a lifetime chance at doing that. Otoh, BWI had around 12" for that winter, so the winter itself sorta sucked in my feeble weenie mind.

Per Joe D’Aleo at WB: “Strat warm favored in west QBO near solar max” https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60046-2024-2025-la-nina/?do=findComment&comment=7489229