mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Thing is, I hear a lot of people saying the Euro has superior thermals due to higher resolution. Idk, I firmly believe they tweaked the Euro to its death as we all knew it.
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ne.weather is still available to seach, but it looks like posting ends next month. It became a real terlet of humanity. Lol https://groups.google.com/g/ne.weather?pli=1
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Yes, I was tracking it on ne.weather with Stormtracker. You were there too at that time too if I recall. My recollection is that all modeling was keying on a different vort max that was to come 2 days later. But the problem with that storm was missing data along the SE coast. When they got that ingested into the 0z 1/25/00 runs, everything caved to what me, Stormtracker, and every other weenie believed earlier in the day...it was coming north for a hit.
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I witcha'. I don't care what 500mb statistics show, the Euro pre-2018 update was a superior model than what we have now of all modeling.
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I said to my wife earlier that had the extended period of sleet been snow (recall you posted that you were surprised by the sleet), and then we turned to rain as progged, the models would have been very good. All of them but the Nams missed an apparent thin layer of warming that caused the sleet.
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Ok, let's use the Euro operational. 3-3.5"
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Fyi, I love the 18z Eps. It had already turned to sleet imby BEFORE 1PM, yet the Eps 10:1 said I should expect almost 4" to fall after 1pm. Can't make this up. Eps are probably the most respected guidance, which is even more troubling. I'm sure it did ok for some, but it never seems to treat me right.
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I think the lesson I took away was the when the Nam twins are the snowiest model, they have a 98% chance of being wrong. When they are the warmest (in the winter with snowstorm threats), they are likely correct. Jmho
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I saw in the MA forum DT thinks the 18z Gfs is wrong next weekend and blocking will push the system further south threatening us. Then again, DT is in love with the Euro, sooooo.
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Ot. Pivotal added Icon and Euro Weeklies
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Snow mixing back in as Cor/Coefficient radar shows sleet sinking back south some. Temporary most likely.
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12z Nams did best here because they had the least snowfall. That said, yesterday the Gfs started showing the bubble of warmth heading north too, so it wasn't so bad either.
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All zr here. If it warms a little bit, I won't have to wait until Tuesday for it to be all washed away lol
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There's hope. Euro 156hrs
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Of course it is...I wrote it.
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Euro 12z cut my total almost in half from 6z and is pretty good with 2". Looks like imby the Nam twins were right.
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Maybe we change back with heavy returns...nahhh.
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Yep. Blew right threw the border. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad
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I can barely see the top of some of my grass, so I will call it a win.
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Warm air pushing north apparently rose high enough over the cold layer to gove me enough room for precip to refreeze before landing. Next step is rain, of course. I suspected this would happen since Westminster was a bust and the rain ob out of Waynesboro.
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Heaviest stuff has stopped. Cor/Coefficient radar shows sleet has breached the PA line. Starting to "hear" the snow on my windows.. .you know what that means! The heavy stuff eas from a warm air surge that has obviously warmed me. We'll see how long until I switch to non-accumulating mix. Should be soon unfortunately.
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It's starting to cut totals down south because of what has already fallen.
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Yes! And I experienced 3+"/hr during the Megalopolis blizzard of 2/83.
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Honestly, some of the heaviest snow I've seen. You guys up north buckle up.
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Under that northern tip of the yellow band due north of DC. Heavy https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad
