mitchnick

Lol. The problem you seem to have is not everyone who may disagree with your interpretation is Joe Bastardi. I've never said anything about a cold and snowy winter. I am saying that I don't believe this winter will behave like your stereotypical strong or super Niño. I have not said, however, how it will behave because a) it's too early to say, and b) it's likely to be unique and anyone who gets it close to right will need more luck than knowledge.

No strong Niño had an MEI as low as this one. Not even close at this stage of the game in fact. I think tempering one's expectations that this Niño will behave similarly to previous Niños based solely/heavily on the ONI is prudent.

At least you got as much as you could out of them.

I want to get a price for one of those Mitsubishi cold climate heat pumps. They don't have an electric strip backup like regulare heat punps as they funtion even down to -25F. That's not us, but heat pumps are efficient until around 40 degrees, then the backup electric heating strip kicks in. Only questions I have are price and a/c as I read they don't do well in hit summer climates. Gotta find out if they mean us or Arizona type hot.

Actually, I'm seriously considering getting rid of my oil forced air/central a/c system. Before we bought it, the a/c unit was replaced in 2017 with a 13 SEER unit that's really not bad, while the oil furnace was replaced in 2018 with supposed 95% efficiency system. I say "supposed" because unlike gas systems, a lot of heat still escapes through the chimney evidenced by the very hit flu vs gas systems that use pvc pipes that expel a little warm steam. Problem is, with the tax credit, the contractors up their prices by the amount of the tax credit so that benefit is nonexistent. I got prices last year and didn't pull the trigger. I'm going to go back and get some more and likely do it. I've got a full oil tank and that should get me to January, early or late, depending on temps. Probably will get a heat pump and deal with the electric bill vs the cost of diesel, which is what they use for home heating oil. Also, the cost of cleaning the oil furnace ($250/yr) will be eliminated.

I was trying to think of something positive to say but all I can come with is Ughhhh...

A neighbor got a new roof in the last 6 months. Wow, prices are crazy. Another neighbor just got a metal roof. Wonder how much they run.

51 for a low imby but 47 at the York Airport. Sunday still looking encouraging but hard to get too excited this year 48 hours out.

As good as that looks, la-la land day 10 looks real nice too. EDIT: on the Gem....sorry

Agree. Cansips doesn't have eastern US above normal precip kicking in until December. Nina background state is hard to shake free from after 1 year of La Nada followed by 3 years of Nina.

Yeah, Cansips September forecast is far from Niño-like.

It's probably fair to say that most of us want the Cansips winter forecast to be accurate. I don't know if anyone looked, but according to the Cansips, we're going to have to get through more dry weather for the next 3 months with September the worst before we reach the promised land. I mention this only in anticipation of prophetic cries of a failed oncoming winter.

This is a pic of Codorus this afternoon from the sw side on Black Rock road. The green area up to the distant shoreline is normally under several feet of water. P.s. I don't know why it won't let you see the pic without downloading. 20230913_133849 (1).heic

A hair over .3" last night thanks to 1 thunderstorm cell.

"...except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms."

If the MJO can't make it much out of the COD with the development of the Niño, it's hard for me to believe it is going to stray very far from it once the Niño peaks come November/December.

We got about 2/3" over the weekend, so things are probably marginally ok. But Codorus is incredibly low. I've only been in the area for 4 years but I can't help but think we're getting near record low levels.

If we miss again tonight, our next shot isn't until Monday at the earliest.

That's certainly what the Euro Seasonal, Cansip, NMME (minus the Cfs), and JMA Seasonal (to a lesser extent than the others) are saying.

In other news, life's not fair! j/k Actually, I'm on the far western edge of that flood watch...I call bs imby. 12z run on the 3K NAM, which has done well lately as the stingyest model on qpf, gave me literally nothing. 18z puts me under a stripe of .75"+. It'll never happen. And if it did, I'll dump out most of the water in my gauge before measuring. I can't miss with this forecast.

Regarding the bolded portion of your post, until you can prove to a reasonable degree of scientic certainty, I don't think "probably" in an atmosphere as chaotic as Earth's is sufficient. Obviously, I don't expect you to do that here, but it would be necessary before your conclusion is proven correct.

September's updated JMA seasonal forecast, despite a slightly warmer ENSO, has come in cooler in the Southeast & Mid-Atlantic than the August forecast. Also, AN precip has expanded further north up the east coast. August forecast is on top and September's below August's.

That's the GFS. CFS says it's still coming fwiw.