mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Today’s weeklies have come in colder. Even has a large area of BN temps in the east the week of 1/6-1/13.
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Huh...average a fading Niño with a weak Niña, and what do you get? La Nada...what else! Lol 20NOV2024 22.7 0.8 25.2 0.1 26.7-0.1 28.8 0.1 27NOV2024 22.5 0.3 24.9-0.2 26.4-0.3 28.5-0.1 04DEC2024 22.5 0.1 24.8-0.4 26.3-0.3 28.3-0.2
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Don't look at the 3k.
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There's no doubt, my southern location is a problem. But getting back to my original post, I just don't think the 10:1 accumulation maps are going to be as accurate as the Kuchera. That's really all I'm saying.
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There was a big difference in a number of years from the 90's to before I moved up here. And I did do substantially better than BWI in 20/21 and better last year. But not so in the other 3 years.
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My forecast has rain and snow starting at 1PM. I'm sure I'll have snow TV, but it's the accumulations I doubt.
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True. But it's a retreating arctic High with SE winds and there's not the kind of model consensus you'd expect for a decent accumulation event. Don't get me wrong. Higher elevations will likely do as advertised, but imho anything to the south and east of the mts under 2" on the 10:1 maps will likely be 1/2" or less.
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You'll have a much better shot at accumulations with your elevation. I'll need to drive 6 minutes up to the peak of Pigeon Hills. Either way, everyone melts and/or gets washed away. Honestly, this move up here hoping for more snow has been disappointing to say the least. Snow nirvana it ain't! Lol
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I love ya' Bliz, but those 10:1 accumulation maps will never verify with these marginal events. Kuchera are far from perfect, but will end up being much more accurate with their reduced totals.
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We have a lot of clouds here, so that will limit us with a decent low if they persist.
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Idk. So different.
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18z Euro and Eps are on a different planet from the Gfs on the 21st.
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Painful...very, very painful.
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Gfs is very January 1996'ish with a Blizzard followed by a pattern change warmup. OK by me.
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Yeah...right. What else could you say.
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You're re-posting Cohen when he posts a 384 hr Gfs operational map because it supports your warmanista agenda? Oye
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Been a while since I've seen this ensemble prediction in a December with Enso 3.4 hovering at -.5C.
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I'm just too far south at this point. The 10:1 maps won't verify either.
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I am soooo tired of being on the edge of accumulating snow. Ughh Need more trending.
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Whatever happens before Christmas thru the NY, weeklies are and have been (as Larry posted earlier), adamant with parking a trough over or near the GL insuring at least average temps for the bulk of January in the central and eastern Conus. And that WILL feel cold after the past few years.
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Warmth is on the weeklies with the week starting 12/23, so there seems to be a bit of a conflict with the Eps.
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The way winters have hone recently, you just may be rushing the warmth. It's been hard to fight it.
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One caveat on above is we don't want northern stream to drop too far south out to our west or it's a GL special.
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I like Euro shift from 0z to 6z. Colder as a result too.
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Squall coming thru now. Looks like a tropical storm with strong winds and rain.
