mitchnick

1. I’m willing to bet that a typical +2+ ONI peak of past El Nino events would have had at least a small area of +3+ nearer to the equator. Even a high +1+ ONI could possibly support a narrow +3+ area there since the center portion is always significantly warmer than the ONI level. Could be, idk. My opinion is more based on the peak it's showing as well as the longevity i.e. 3 month average. 2. Do you know what climo base is used for the 2m temp anomalies by JAMSTEC? Yes, 91-20 per the site. 3. Hopefully this run isn’t too cold in the SE as it has been significantly too cold before. I’d sure love a 1-2 F BN DJF, the coldest on the entire map! I've always felt it can never be too cold if you're south of NE, but that's from a lifetime of living on the coastal plain just north or south of BWI.

I should have added, there are apparently 3 models that make of the average shown. The F2 model is the warm one while the F2-3Var is much cooler. Unfortunately, the 3rd model Fsii isn't available on the site. The point is, I believe the mean is skewed by F2.

For a 3 month period, I still say it's absurd. 1 month maybe, but time will tell.

Some frost on the roofs here. Down to 39 imby and atleast 37 at THV. NWS forecast had a predicted low of 43.

Jamstec updated October forecast out. Snowman19, you'll need some time alone in a locked room with its absurd SSTA forecast. Here are the DJF maps for SSTA, surface temps and precip. Link to all info here: https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

My problem is grubs. I had the same problem at my Maryland house, all 32 years I lived there. Must be the clay soil there and here too.

I was going to mow tomorrow and then fertilize. Looks like I need a bag of Sevin instead of Weed and Feed. Thanks! Too bad I still plan on cutting it at 1" once we get a forecast for accumulating snow.

With the atmosphere always trying to balance things out, and conventional wisdom being temps are going to be BN (PV temps) thanks to water vapor, why wouldn't that balancing process include warming eposodes (blocking) or SSW events? Just a thought.

First of all, they don't state how much above normal. Second, take out 82, 97, & 15 since we're getting that high this year, and possibly 72. I'm sure that makes a difference, if not in percentages as shown, definitely in the degree of AN.

Idk if I'd call Nino 1+2 +2.3C well over 2C, but I do know that there's a very clear trend on this graph.

This SSTA animation shows it nicely as well. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

@GaWx This JMA site hasn't updated yet, but it should any day. It has temp and precip anomalies. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

Note as well all the ensemble members that fall off a cliff later in the period on the weeklies. A surprising number of the litetally off the chart weak while there are no members off the chart strong like those weak.

1.1" looking in my cheap rain gauge. Models did pretty well until the last minute coming in around .75". Thursday and Friday they were in the 1-1.25" range.

Should have come. One more deviant won't hurt.

Nice line pressing east and it doesn't seem to be weakening coming over the mountains.

Cfs finally sniffing out a jump in 3 and 3.4. I use the seasonal prog instead of monthly because it's far less jumpy.

Bubbler, you got your 70's at MDT yesterday. Mby yard max was 66.6 and THV was 69. Air was dry and that, along with few clouds, allowed temps to jump.

It's in a little low spot right on rt. 30. The aircraft fly right over 30 and low. Helicopters take off a couple hundred feet from the road. It's always been a cold spot. I remember when I lived 2 miles north of BWI how incredibly colder it was than BWI on clear, cold nights. I'm now only about 12 or 13 miles away from it as the crow flies and have only been lower a handfull of times in the last 4 years.

From his postings attached in this forum, I doubt he would say that this Nino has progressed as he thought it would 2 months ago.

9/23 update had months 11/23-3/24 anomalies at 2.4, 2.7, 2.9, 2.7, 2.3. 2 weeks later with today's update those numbers are 2.0, 2.2, 2.5, 2.5, 2.2.

You need to learn how to read spouses. Just replace "they" with "you."

@GaWx Cfs updated October. Slight change from 20 days ago. Had the right area for the coolest temps I suppose.

Cfs updated 850 October forecast. Better late than never.

More Ukmet seasonal forecast. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob-skill