mitchnick
-
Posts
27,347 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by mitchnick
-
A lingering memory of Dt's typing skills when he posted on Eastern.
-
The Canadian comes close to a miracle with the Sunday/Monday storm. It does get some snow into the state but no big deal. Gfs and Icon are carp with it.
-
Welp, I decided not to get a new heating system because I took care of insulating the attic and ducts as well as sealing air leakage. I'm sticking with oil, like it or not, until my a/c goes up and I'll get a heat pump at that point if still living. In the meantime, the pending warmth will result in a decent savings on $ after all the insulation and sealing. That's what I'm telling myself at least.
-
Sums up this "winter." Lol
-
I was surprised to see that this morning with the Euro after all ensemble members on the 18z had the slp to our south similar to runs prior to 12z. But, that's what models do.
-
If you roll this link forward, Cfs weeklies on board too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg®ion=us&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2024012212&fh=168
-
The good news, the only good news in fact, is that both the Gefs and Geps weakened the ridge in Canada and were in the process of placing a trough across the south similar to weeklies.
-
Yeah, that 12z run was over amped liked I thought. Nothing else had the slp going to our west. Still time to pull this one out of the jaws of defeat.
-
Has the ridging in Canada and troughing along the south similar to weeklies. It's bringing it forward, if true.
-
Oh yeah. Way inland...as in Ohio. Lol Looks more like one of those early season storms. Probably overamped Euro again.
-
Much stronger closed 5h this run. Inland maybe? We'll see shortly.
-
Heights along the east coast are higher this run than 0z a couple days before the weekend threat. Don't know if they will recover.
-
What do you do if you don't mind me asking?
-
Classis mod to strong Niño snowstorm at the end of the 12z Gfs. Beautiful fantasy.
-
Gfs a hit for many except far southern tier.
-
Actually, I screwed up. That's the Euro MJO forecast. Gfs kills the MJO and puts it in the COD, which could also explain it.
-
So why is the Gfs operational looking so much colder with the 0z and 6z runs? Could be its MJO prediction that now gets us into Phase 7, which puts troughiness in the east. By the way, here's a link to MJO phases during El Niños. https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html
-
Ultimately, Dca/Bwi will be the jackpot. Lol
-
Euro next weekend. 10:1 & Kuchera, the lesser of the 2 in light of marginal temps.
-
Definitely a longshot, but it's the only thing in the foreseeable future.
-
That would have added 2 days above 2 and 2 days to the period. Either way, it would be the weakest of all Supers, but I think we all knew that. Lol
-
Need it to slow a bit and deepen to generate some colder air. This is weak and flying along.
-
12z Ukie looks like it might bring the storm far enough north to hit us, but temps are an issue, of course. Ukie only goes out 144hrs, so I can't say for sure. But it's a decent 5h look which I've linked. I also link a loop of the 6hr precip maps. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=500h_anom&rh=2024012112&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_006h-imp&rh=2024012112&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
-
Reviewing the Oisst graph, the first day Enso 3.4 was at or greater than +2.0 was on November 20 and the last day was January 5. During that 47 day period, it was at or above +2.0 only 32 days, with highest reading of approximately +2.17 on November 25. Of the 32 days above +2.0, only 11 were at or above +2.10. I don't know if it makes it to the Super category, but if it does, it's the bastard child of the bunch.
-
Upper level trough
