mitchnick

37.2 for a low coming after sunrise like Bubbler

Great post with 1 correction. BWI had around 39" of snow in 13/14. I assume you were referring to it when you said "little or snow across the area..."

If I recall correctly, Stormchaser Chuck's research showed we don't want a -NAO in October if we want one for the winter. It's not absolute, but odds favor a +NAO over D-F with a -NAO in October. @Stormchaserchuck1 Please correct me if I am wrong.

I haven't seen it posted before, so sorry if everyone has the link, but I've been using this Mesonet site for a while. When you zoom, it populates the map with more locations. It's centered in western PA, but once it stops loading you can move it around with 1 finger. I "X" out of the overlays, but that's up to you. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&center=39.4473115,-79.941553&density=1&zoom=7&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false&obs_popup=true

Be sure to post pics everyone!

Indian summer.

Winds shifted to the north here.

You can dream longer by not looking at any of the new runs.

18z Gfs. 66hrs temp anomaly on top and 72 hrs on the bottom. Sweet!

Webcam

Skyline Drive looks to be at peak color. Time sensative pic attached along with link for future viewing. https://www.nps.gov/shen/learn/photosmultimedia/view_webcam.htm

Looks to me like N Hemisphere snow and ice have recovered to at least average, maybe above, if this graph is correct.

Even their maps look like they're in Japanese

I never have a problem with the supply lines, especially using sharkbites. But those drain lines, that aren't even under pressure, haunt me.

I've been out of action lately because I'm redoing my 2nd floor hall bath. I hired a guy to do a couple things I've never done before like ripping out a fiberglass tub and shower unit and setting a new tub. But I'm doing the rest like demo-ing the floors and walls, installing new ceramic floors and tub walls, painting, installing the new vanity with new fixtures and drains. That said, there's nothing I hate more than simple plumbing, as in installing new drains pipes from a new sink. I'll be d@mned if I can get that d@mn drain line connected to the bottom of the sink without that sob leaking ever so slightly. But I refuse to call my plumbing contractor back until I run out of 4 letter words. The only thing that has saved me is that one of the 2 sinks went in fine with no leaks while the other one is on the 3rd try. I have my fingers crossed that there's no water in the bucket tomorrow morning. Can't wait to refocus my life on more important things like model runs and high/low temperatures.

Are you still predicting a tri-monthly will reach +2 or are you saying that there will be a daily/weekly/monthly reading of +2?

Temps started rising before sunrise. Methinks southerly winds just above the deck have kicked in.

36 point something here with tons of frost. Still time to make it to 35. THV at 33 for the last 2 hours.

Fyi, that 850 anomaly map is dated 10/15. That burst has come and gone and we see what happened to 3.4.

Just wait until you get old. Lol

Probably because the ridge in SE Canada started hooking up with the SE Ridge only to spawn the bastard child known as the winter of 22/23.

Those Meteo France maps you post look so different than those I posted off the Euro site. The Euro site look much better. Lol I'll go with them!

Agreed that yhey are likely using the Euro, but I don't think the Euro Seasonal is quite as bad as you state. It looks like the 3 month mean is skewed due to December. If you look at the monthlies of D-F you can see how the Euro weakens the trough and moves it east and builds a EPP/PNA ridge.

MEI is .60. Don't know if that was a typo or incorrect info.