mitchnick

I don't care about why it's been warm. Lol The internet is filled with "me firsts" trying to come up with new theories/explanations on warming so they can join the 10,000 jumping off the GW Brooklyn Bridge. Whether they are right or wrong, the past is dead. I'm looking forward to this winter and trying to identify opportunities in the east in accordance with the thread title "2024-2025 La Nina."

Imho, last night's run of the Eps for the east/south look more Niño than flaming Niña depicted on monthly modeling. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=sfct_anom-p105090-imp&rh=2024111200&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

That post from sad-faced Makiko is over a month old. Looks to me like the sun will peak this month. https://solen.info/solar/index.html

I should have added, both GEFS & GEPS are showing a trough over Japan. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024111206&fh=384 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024111200&fh=384

Don't know if anyone noticed, but Euro Weeklies forecast has been hitting hard on weakening then removing the ridge over Japan starting early December. Should help some with PDO and ridge placement over Alaska. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202411110000&projection=opencharts_eastern_asia&valid_time=202411180000

Oisst is even better. Coral Reefs has been notoriously a tick or 2 warmer over the years.

I'm not Gawx, but ahem...

.4" last night fwiw

You didn't get the memo Larry? South of NE, we only post positive winter signs! Lol

There may be some future rising of the PDO if these SSTA maps are reasonably accurate. Top map is current SSTA and bottom map is changes of SSTA the last 7 days that's showing a decent hit to Pacific warm pool.

First time PDO has been <2 in a while.

1am reading down to 28 at York AP before temps started rising thanks to clouds.

I posted a month or so ago (too lazy to find it) that December would torch and I felt mby wouldn't get legit snow chances until the 1/15-2/25 period. I'll stick with that for now with the only caveat that 6-week period may need future adjustment in the future back a week or 2 to start in early January, but only if N America is able to cool fast enough from December.

It's been out for 2 days on TT. Seems like, at least at this point, all seasonal forecasts show the Dec-Feb period average in the +1-2C range for the east. The question now is whether that's underdone or overdone. Let me get back to you on that one!

Looks like you'll need to microwave the rats instead.

Lol. I was still celebrating yesterday and wasn't looking at models.

Little early in the season for a run like this on the 12z Gfs. Lol

Yeah, but you get the chick!

Is that for Millersville area or S. PA?

Only if it keeps getting warmer!

I think WeatherBell offers daily runs, but that may be on the Control run. Not sure as I haven't had a WB account in years.

In case anyone cares, I think I've found the reason for the differences between the Cfs2 site and the Cfs2 shown on TT. Cfs2 site is an average of runs for the last 9 days and TT is an average of the last 12 runs, or 3 days. Since today's TT Cfs2 maps are much warmer than what's reflected on the Cfs2 site as of today, I would expect the Cfs2 site to show some noticeable warming over the next week unless TT maps reverse their recent warming. I guess we'll see if I'm right. Cfs2 site if you don'thave it handy: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html TT Cfs2: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024102706&fh=1

When a team can look so good one week and so bad the next, it's got to be 80-90% coaching imho.

I know. I was being a desperate weenie.

In retrospect or when looking ahead? Lol