mitchnick

But it is very similar to Euro and Cansips, so it is at least confirmation of the others. Plus, that was 5 years ago. How long do you hold a bad forecast against any model? And have there been updates/improvements to the JMA over the past 5 years? I think you're being a bit picky if not just negative.

25.2 as my low with a current reading of 25.7. THV had a low of 21.

Best seasonal yet!

Odd. When I translated it, the phrase you have "in the latest ENFEN Report" came out as the "...EFEN Report."

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-quicklook

It would be nice to know what model Roundy is posting for the 850 wind anomalies since it does matter. It looks like he's using the CFS comparing it to the CFS 850 wind anomalies (in color) at the link below, but that's a guess. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

I made no forecast. It was an observation. Obviously, you missed the words "SO FAR."

Not only no effect, but it's going the wrong way so far. I still think the problem is the failure of strong westerlies to bust through east of the dateline.

Before you posted this, in light of the "passion " exhibited by some on X, I started wondering (as crazy as it may sound) if people are gambling on the Niño numbers and trying to move the betting lines.

Terrible drought conditions in S Central PA. Not that bad too far to my north, but we missed a lot of the summer storms. The lake in Codorus State Park has a shoreline more than 200' from its normal location.

But they were the Cfs forecasts and yours were yours, so...

First, you really should lose the hate. It's just the weather which none of us can control and many can't forecast accurately despite what they and their followers may think. But to answer your wx question, this attachment shows why I'm not yet impressed. 850 anomalies have already been strong from the west but ssta have still cooled. When and if that response materializes, then I will believe it. I should add, the westerly wind anomalies continue to be west of the dateline. I think that's the problem.

Like the weatherman who forecasts without looking outside, he needs to check actual ssta's.

Bastardi fwiw. Mentions a lot of the same factors discussed here. https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast

Admittedly, I do feel honored to make Snowman's hate list.

Tell that to my wife.

Although the latest MEI number hasn't updated, it looks to me like this Graph has been for September/October. Assuming I'm right, the MEI has DROPPED for S/O.

But it's the internet. Jumping to conclusions and off bridges is just what people like to do.

Though I agree with you, I wouldn't expect the Nina base-state to get erased fast enough to produce numbers like 09/10*. For those of us lucky enough to be in the right spot for snow event(s), be prepared for a lot of wet snow with powder a fond memory. *Speaking from a MA perspective.

Despite the location of the surface anomalies, the upper 300 meters have been shifting westward.

Unless I hear it from Eric Webb, I won't get excited.

So in other words, if your hopes for a winter ruining super Niño don't materialize this year, you have renewed hope that next winter will be ruined by a Niña. Something is wrong with you.

As a paranoid Mid-Atlanticer, I'm hoping to get rid of the La Niño in favor of an El Niño by 12/1. I'm in no mood to roll the dice on snowfall with a "unique" look.

37 at 5am. Don't know what has happened since. THV sitting at 30...what's new.