mitchnick

6z Gfs operational DOES split the pv after a wave 2 hit.

Seems like the best the models can do +7 days is see a potential storm and use a dartboard to place it, so anything is possible on them. Between 3-7 days, where we are now, they start honing in. <3 days is the fine tuning when we all hold our breaths, assuming we're still in the game. As for your location, as is typical with these juicy, Niño systems, the closer to I81 one is, the better. Unless, of course, you get a killer block or 50/50.

I'm a fan of putting much stock into seasonal trends. Our problem is that it is rare for models to sniff out the correct solution 6 or 7 days out, so when you're in the bullseye this far out....uh boy. Most know this I'm sure. But the seasonal trend this year so far isn't comforting to me because this is arguably the first threat after the pattern change and, up to now, so many of the slp's have been inland runners. So in my mind, that 50/50 to develop from 1/4 system holds our future as to whether everything from here is downhill. All of which means, as good as it looks now, don't fall in love with it because it will likely be Wednesday before some reasonable confidence can be had that we will be able to buck the seasonal trend. Just mho.

Needs to stop creeping north...NOWWWW!!!

https://ulmerlaw.com/blog/2022/08/how-to-get-a-cheap-divorce-in-pennsylvania/

Eps looks similar to Geps for the 7th. Still more snow would fall beyond the last panel of the run per qpf maps.

Missed that. Good catch. Maybe it can trend east.

Geps likes the 6/7th too. It should be understood to anyone thinking, what's the big deal about an 1.5"? At this range for an ensemble, that's a strong signal.

It shows 2 shots before a relax/reload. Psuhoffman has a good post how after the reload things will likely get even more interesting.

Gfs goes goofy due to a huge area of cold in Canada pressing south.

Light snow for 1/7. Looks like Gfs wants to send energy out in poeces because there's already another vort gaining steam by the 8th headed east.

1/6-1/7 threat has makings of a monster if it can come together right.

One down, another looks to be out west.

Gfs has 1st January threat approaching on 1/4. Buckle up!

Close miss onnthe Canadian, but in the ballpark at this range. Nice 5H look.

Canadian looking interesting at days 8-10.

Not last night's runs. All looked very good and all had some appreciable snowfall post NYD. Impressive for such long range forecasts of ensemble products.

Downstate PA not good enough for you, ehh?

Not saying it's right, but it is impressive if nothing else.

Don't look now, but 2/10 just walked in the door. Sharp north cut-off included.

If accurate, it could just be a natural response to cool global oceans.

It's the DC culture.

In weenie world, the best of times have the ensembles supporting the operational runs. But we're too far out for that. Be that as it may, I personally believe we have our first legit threat at a legit snowstorm to track fwiw.

No way slp would head for the GL with the ensemble mean 500mb and 250mb wind flow.

Should have said, it's the same system reflected at the end of the Gfs essentially. And you know what they say...the big ones are sniffed out far in advance...sometimes.