mitchnick
-
Posts
28,060 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by mitchnick
-
If you blow JB's 95/96 analog, he'll never forgive you.
-
I have no idea how it ultimately turns out ONI-wise. Anything from a La Nada to barely moderate is still on the table imho, with weak Niña favored. Regardless of ONI, however, we're definitely stuck in a Niña background state which also leaves a wide variety of possibilities for the winter. If one is planning on issuing a winter forecast, I'd put off the issue date as long as possible. Lol
-
Along with the moderate/strong to strong.
-
Surface is more than a little bit different however. If Chuck's right, it won't matter much. In any event, considering Gawx's post on the SOI and persistent warmth in Enso 3.4 & 4, it's "likely" going to take a real turnaround to get an ONI colder than a weak Niña imho. But that could change, of course.
-
.35" today
-
Always a safe bet in the summer. P.s. They're open now.
-
Bad news @Bubbler86 No power at the Starlight...
-
Yikes! Just looked at my old back yard, BWI, and they got to 104 yesterday. Time to quit complaining. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html
-
Neighborhood behind me still without power. Man I hate being without power.
-
Poor folks in the neighborhood behind me haven't had power for the last 3 hours.
-
Ended with .7" with a ton of destructive winds. Lots of tree limbs down along the street in addition to the neighbor's entire tree.
-
I was ground desert last year.
-
Crushing it now.
-
And I'm right under it. Neighbor's tree of 15-18" base diameter down.
-
Jaded weenie memory?
-
I always think back to 01/02 when the sun had an unexpected rise in activity. My grass was greener than the average summer!
-
Better now than the winter.
-
Blue sky to the west visible but still crushing imby.
-
Getting crushed by an isolated t storm.
-
Here's the Cfs2 850 anomalies for the earlier 2m temps. Hard to not at least crack a smile with this map.
-
Cfs2 new extended forecast out today for Jan-Mar is looking a lot like the Cansips' July run.
-
I don't know if that's the only criteria they use. If you look at the graph at the top of the page, it includes sunspot numbers as well as solar flux and 3 other measures. I never looked into it nor really care for that matter. We're at or near the top now and should be headed down come winter is all I need to know.
-
Apparently the "expert" at that link says the peak was in May per the "Monthly solar cycle data."
-
Got around .15" yesterday.
-
Looks like we're at the top with a double peak per smoothed numbers near the bottom of the page. https://solen.info/solar/index.html
