mitchnick

We need consistent support for snowfall on the ensembles or we're just getting our chains jerked by the operationals imho. Ensembles have all had a run here and there that looked promising, then lost it. Just too early for anything legit unfortunately.

87-88 was a 2nd year Niño that likely just ran out of gas. Plus, it acted like a Nina back in BWI land if memory serves. The early November storm was the highlight of the winter as it turned out.

18z Gfs has the Euro signal fwiw.

Sleet in Novie is a win in these parts. I just hope the Euro and Canadian aren't jerkong our chains for the week after Thanksgiving.

EPS mean has 2"+ snow falling after 240 hrs., so it's seeing something.

So we're talking apples to apples, daily or weekly +2.3 is certainly possible. But what most here, as I understand it, are referring to are trimonthly numbers. I don't see a trimonthly or a monthly at +2.3. 2009 had 2 consecutive weeklies at +1.9 but only maxed at +1.6 with 1 trimonthly. Plus you now have a time issue since Niños traditionally peak the end of December, though some modelling suggest a January peak is possible this time. In any event, it seems to me you'll need at least one month at +2.3 to have any shot at a trimonthly at +2 or more.

They're just hyping it and keeping their fingers crossed they can get 1 month above +2C and claim victory since 1 trimonthly is nearly a mathematical impossibility at this point.

And the response in 3.4 from 10/16 to 11/16 has been to rise only .1C. So now what? He doesn't say.

Worlds apart? From what I've seen it's between strong between +1.6-1.9 vs. 2-2.3.

The boy who cried wolf is seriously on the doorsteps now. Seems like the last shot looking at projected trades.

Don't know, but it does say below the SSTA map: "These graphics are made with data from the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) & Coral Reef Watch datasets." https://cyclonicwx.com/sst.php

Every area is under +2C and dropping per link below, except for 4 which is rising slightly. Good place to be at this point imho. https://cyclonicwx.com/sst.php

And that's why it is warm with its forecast and will, therefore, be wrong with its eastern US forecast.

If it means anything, the JMA MJO forecasts since the summer have been very good, one of the best in fact from what I have seen. Hopefully, this Niño is in its wheelhouse.

Gefs likes it too.

Stupid lawyers. Once management realizes they don't need them thanks to AI, it's a Dios.

I'll take this as a legit pattern change to Niño on the Euro 12z. Qpf total thru 216 hrs.

Oz Gefs lost the storm potential, but 6z brought it back fwiw.

Maybe, but you have to admit this Niño has not progressed as so many expected.

Cold front came thru and mixed down the inversion. Tonight is cold again...mid 20's.

Nice shift west of anomalies underway.

GEFS seeing the potential now too.

Cfs has done pretty well with Enso ssta, but it's on its own with its D-F forecast on average. I say on average because it has had occasional runs looking more like the E/C/J forecast average. However, running 4x/day it comes up with all kinds of forecasts! Lol

Who said I take them seriously, and how do you define "seriously?" I said the JMA is similar to the Euro and Cansips, which it is. I just don't believe using a model's blown seasonal forecast from 5 years ago is a scientifically valid basis to throw out a current seasonal forecast. Moreover, all 3 seasonals mentioned are not far from a canonical moderate/strong Niño, so I don't believe it unreasonableto have a bit less skepticism about them this year. Otoh, if you think seasonal forecasts are useless, that's fine. They're certainly a cr@p shoot, but when there's a consensus among tte seasonal forecasts, they have my attention.