mitchnick

6z Euro went way warm for everybody. Don't trust it yet, but trend hasn't been great since Wednesday's jackpot runs of Gfs and Euro.

Looks like Euro weekly control caved for December.

From MA forum link https://x.com/webberweather/status/1859834206731514183?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1859834206731514183|twgr^11980a2b1ad670b9969d1980f82fb5188548f3a7|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fwebberweather%2Fstatus%2F1859834206731514183

How did we get that? Stronger 50/50 and slightly weaker wave out west.

For next week, we just need minor trends run to run to cash in. We got one of those with the 18z Eps vs 12z Eps. 850 temps pressing further south.

I was just going to post how incredibly stable the cold pattern is. Absolute opposite of every winter since 13/14, though 14/15 was chilly.

It's good for us.

Nothing...a friend covers your azz. It's politics.

18z Nam twins absolutely love Bubbler. Congrats

Gem ain't bad with 1st wave, but we're on the far southern end. Sorta like Gfs.

Fyi, Rgem has never been on board with much accumulations outside of the Poconos and Somerset County/north and 12z is no better. At least we'll get to see if any particular model(s) have a hot or cold hand to start the season.

Those comparisons are from 1 point in time, 120 hours out. A lot can go wrong with a forecast 5 days out with any or all of them. I "think" I recall seeing a comparison less than 120 hours out and there was a marked unification of all the model forecasts as would be expected. Personally, with all the things that can and do go wrong with forecasts, I think this is one of those things (best model) that rests with anecdotal evidence as flawed as that may often be. I mean we all can probably agree that the Euro used to be the best model based on our experience, but can likewise all agree now that it is not as good as it was based on experience. Jmho

Interesting. Maybe the next question, assuming we see the same look in early December, is whether we should bother caring what the seasonal models say. Idk. Both the Euro and Cfs2 weeklies just caught on to the cold pattern yesterday.

6z Gfs crapped the bed on all the threats by pushing them north. That's closer to climo so it has some merit, but everything remains on the table this far out.

Pouring, windy, and thunder.

Anybody know where the ACE ended, or soon to end? Seems like it made a last ditch save into something respectable. Thanks.

Turn off TWC before you go blind. Lol

That forecast came out on the 15th. Gefs and Geps were showing persistent cold pattern on the 12z runs of the 15th. Eps were showing average temps. Guess they didn't buy the Gefs and Geps. Eps late to the party again. They wrecked that model.

Just tell her you love her and everything will be fine.

18z Gfs has another big snow, this run starting on Thanksgiving Day. Incredible cold to follow it. Thus is crazy.... crazy good that is.

I would guess they want a redo in that map. P.s. I know it's for a longer period, but they clearly were not thinking temps shown on the new map for that period.

Ooops...that's 12z. 18z better.

Icon a @Bubbler86 special.

I've been harping on that Japan trough for a while as I believe it's key to maintaining the trough in the east. Modeling seems bent on holding it in. Otoh, I couldn't care less if it disintegrated so long as it stays cold!

95/96 had plenty of warm-ups, so I expect it.