mitchnick

We'll get the Euro monthly tomorrow if I'm not mistaken. I think it comes out on the 4th of the month these days??? So we'll have 1 more piece of guidance to fight over! Lol

Here's even a better example. 2 weeks ago, 11/18 forecast, for the week of 122-12/9 on top. Yesterday's forecast for the same week that's upon us so there's no question how close the prediction will be.

And from the same runs looking 2 weeks later, the weeklies did this. It happens all the time. Models are crap shoots. Lots of variations based on projected timing.

Orthopedic surgeons will have a banner 2025.

Or flatten the Appalachians.

Every location is different and I don't claim to know the various climos around PA, only mine. If I had to guess right now, I would say plus or minus 1-2 degrees from normal Dec-Feb average. So close enough to normal that most normal people won't notice. But considering how warm winters have been of late, my guess is the average person will feel it cold even if not technically BN. Snow is the bigger issue for most of us and, so far at least, I'm not getting a great feeling about that imby due to dryness and the insufferable warm/wet-dry/cold tendencies of a Niña or cold neutral. Maybe different away from me, idk. P.s. Of course, this could change, but I'm basing it on what I've seen so far. Feb or March could be our wild cards for the better.

Although signs point to a cooler/colder January, models are indicating a little BN precip. That could change, but that change could mean drier too. What a hobby.

And so are us snow weenies.

GEFS having a hard time making up it's mind in the long range between runs. End of the 12z run 850 anomalies on top and end of the 18z on the bottom. 500mb maps with similar looks.

Interesting how the Euro weeklies keep delaying the warmup in the east. Yesterday's run keeps the east BN or within the normal scale thru 1/6. The only AN is the week of 1/6-1/13, and only gets it into the lowest AN scale of +.5-1C. The good news being, if correct, that won't prohibited snow chances completely being so close to the climo minimum.

This Pic of 11/25 SSTA forecast from updated Cansips is for Larry.

Here you go Jerry. Updated maps on TT. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024120100&fh=0

100% on that. The ground was snow covered almost all of January. Then, February flipped warm mid month and March was around +5 at BWI. Maybe because I was younger in 76/77, but I found 93/94 to be even more brutal, though not as unrelenting as 76/77.

Not interested. I think BWI (mby at the time) had a lousy 12" or so that winter.

Coldest winter on record in the east will get you those numbers, but that was far from the norm. I walked 200' out onto the frozen Chesapeake Bay that winter in January, 1977 at Sandy Point State Park. The Chesapeake Bay never froze like that again.

Helluva way to run a warmup on the Geps at the end of its run.

Looks like there must be a few members on the Gefs bringing the storm up the coast. Va/NC hit off the table this run...thank you Gypsy Helen for that reading today. You were right! Lol

Time to bring out the trusty "cold/dry, wet/warm" montra.

For me...yes. Clearfield, probably snow, at least in part.

12z Gem is going to look a lot like the Euro rainstorm I believe.

Needless to say, another Gfs mirage disappears.

Cuts off sw trough like Euro and n stream vort is indistinguishable

12z Gfs looks way different than 0z and 06 thru 144hrs.

Icon definitely not the Euro, but slower evolution than Gfs thru 180hrs.

Fwiw, Icon looks like Gfs'ish thru 174hrs.