mitchnick

PDI was great at BWI too. Woke up at 3am to 2-3"/hr. Ended with 18-19".

As you should know, the cause for the warming has been the current MJO wave. It's been on the models for at least 8 days as evidenced by the attached Eps 850 wind anomaly forecast from 1/25. It's been on the models longer than that, but I don't have anything else handy to attach. And considering the Eps have been showing the upcoming pattern change since before 1/25, I think it's fair to say the models have figured it into their forecasts. So to quote a well-respected wx enthusiast, "no changes." Moreover, it's the strong MJO wave that's prompting the threat of a SSW. After this equatorial warming event, the Niño is toast.

Once cold is established by the Eps, these are the next 3 weeks' precip anomalies starting with week ending 2/26 off yesterday's run.

Thanks for the reminder. I remember the day when old people were a protected class...sonny.

Can't believe they filmed me without my consent.

Is it just as green on your side of the fence?

My concern is precip. All long range guidance I've seen shows a great trough in the east, +PNA, -NAO and dry. I believe it gets cold, but does it precipitate? I don't think we can just assume the stj continues to aim precip at us since the whole pattern will be changed from what we've had and looks stable thru early March. I'm not forecasting it will be dry, but nothing I've seen has AN precip for us and some guidance is well BN precip. Always something.

Screw em?....a tiny moth? You been talking to my wife?

Moths need a home too ya' know.

The fact that there are 3, if not more, sources for ssta numbers is absurd imho.

There is support!

Only if you promise to never post climo data. Lol

The sacred "pattern" advertised by long range modeling for weeks has medium range modeling advertising the "fruits" of the pattern now within the medium range.

Crushes it instead of phasing. Carry on...nothing to see here. Lol

Fwiw, Canadian looks a bit more interesting with the 5th early on with the northern stream headed SE. How much it can pull the southern stream north tbd.

They got one a couple weeks before PDII.

Doubt it's right, but 0z Icon is entertaining if nothing else.

Nice to see the Gfs has our first Mecs/Hecs at the end of the 18z run.

Saw from NE thread they would probably be upgrading the resolution, but poster wasn't certain.

Anybody hear about this? It's a notice posted on Stormvista re the Euro.

And 3 days later, 850's are normal and surface temps down considerably following 850's back towards normal....all consistent with extended ensembles fwiw.

Probably is time to finally party with the Gefs. The good news is that 850 temps are normal and surface only a hair over on their way down. Time to buckle up and see what comes of it.

Gefs creeping precip/snow north as of 168hrs fwiw.

Explanation of why mid-late February-March has a shot. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59779-winter-202324-mediumlong-range-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=7185737