mitchnick

Cfs2 has been cooling the last week, but I assume it's too cool. If the trend continues, an updated forecast....err, guess may be needed. Lol

Roof frost all over and a low of 32 at York Airport.

Yeah, barely touched my oil tank level so far and received only a $90 electric bill yesterday.

Fwiw, Cfs2 and and bias corrected Bomm get it thru 3.

Went over this before, but it's worth repeating. The Cfs2, as all other seasonal modeling, has December as a dumpster fire, which all have acknowledged. The question is what about January and February, as the Dec-Feb average is and has been skewed by December's warmth. This can be seen on the monthly temps link below. I am going verbatim just as your post, and clearly January and February are not as bad is December, and never have been for that matter for the last month. Whether the Cfs2 and other modeling is accurate is whole different discussion. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

We just need to find something we all agree on to unify us......

Don't really disagree. I just favor official sites except, like I said, when I'm waiting for the cold for a reason.

I was looking at a 90 with 2 of the closest stations 82 and another at 84. I think it comes down to micro climates and equipment. Jmho

That's why I never bother to look at Wunderground station temps unless I'm waiting for cold air to arrive waiting for a changeover from rain to snow. You just don't know where the station is situated and how accurate that particular station is. There shouldn't be that much of a difference over such short distances without micro climates and/or faulty wx instruments. I see the inexplicable variations within a mile of my house at locations with only a few feet asl' apart.

With all those 82's close by, I think some of those higher numbers may have the sun shining on the wx stations.

I believe it was @brooklynwx99 that posted WB is the Control run of the Cfs2. I believe what you posted is the Control run because it has the "(C)" after the words "CFS Monthly" top, left. I could be wrong, of course. Lol

Never?

Cfs2 is always a moving target. It was actually a touch warmer than Don's map a few days ago when it had the +1C just north of mby instead of just south. Once updated November forecasts come in over the next couple of weeks, it'll be time to shift to the weekly guidance where there's "a little" more accuracy.

I posted weeks ago I thought the best chances for the Mid Atlantic for anything decent was between 1/15-2/25. Still believe that's the case, but should have added nuisance potential thru the winter (1" or less.) I doubt a big year, but 20/21 sucked down there while I had over 30". I don't believe I'll ever see that this year short of a fluke event.

Not a long list, but at least indicative of a winter favoring neutral. Again, that supports the idea of an up and down winter being favored. I do believe you can scratch 89/90 off the list as November is not looking anonymously cold like 11/89 (assuming that you are using the month of December to identify the winter.) Unfortunately, very few winters on that list I'd be interested in reliving! Lol

Strengthening MJO wave on weeklies. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202410190000 Pretty decent agreement with other modeling too. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Which direction in the sky is that?

67 here

Post pandemic, prices are crazy. I replaced windows in 3 house over the years myself with average price of $250/window. They're fine and the few issues I had were quickly resolved by manufacturer. I did put some more expensive ones in my sunroom, but that's because I went overkill with triple panes. Nowadays, middle of the road windows installed are often close to $1000 a window. They're nuts.

The windows are definitely a contributor, but don't waste the money on new ones. You'll never get a return on them no matter what any window salesman tells you. Trust me on this one.

Twitter?

When I bought this house, I checked out the attic more closely than the 2-bit inspector we hired. Even though we had aluminum ventilated soffit, they never cut holes in the plywood soffit underneath. I realized that when I didn't see any sunlight coming in around the front and rear of the house; in fact, they didn't do it for any other soffits around the house. It made a noticeable difference once I got things opened up. That's the only reason why I mentioned it. You forgot to mention what the cheapskates would do.

If you need ac in November, you may want to check to see your attic ventilation is adequate. Whether 1 or 2 story, with the sun pretty weak in November, an adequately ventilated attic along with proper insulation (which I know you have), should stay cool enough unless you prefer a morgue climate.

My brother-in-law's wife is from Western PA and she does not allow heat before Thanksgiving. He must really love her after over 30 years of that.

BWI is -2.4 for the month. Yesterday's low of 32 is in the books. Sorry TCC. Interestingly, Mt. Mansfield in Vermont tied its 2010 record of earliest 1 foot snowfall yesterday. I wonder if TCC is headed up there to confirm the measurement?