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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    20.1
  2. mitchnick
    That's not new. Both of us have posts referencing it and yesterday I posted how the Cfs had weakened it over the past 3 days.
  3. mitchnick
    Whooops....missed that.
  4. mitchnick
    Another tick lower last night.
  5. mitchnick
    Cfs has weakened the next WWB over the last 3 days fwiw.
  6. mitchnick
    There's nothing definite in weather. Essentially everyone was calling for a warm December, including the showman Webb. Now look at his about face. Lack humility in weather forecasting, be ready to be humiliated.
  7. mitchnick
    If the weak PV forecasts are correct, the "classic" Niño response you are referring to will have its hands tied around its back. And with the Eps, Gefs, Geps, and Cfs all supporting the weak PV, it looks unlikely imho.
  8. mitchnick
    Now I'm not sure if it's an apples to apples Cfs comparison to the weathermodels site posted by stadiumwave, but to my eyes the latest Cfs runs off the Tropical Tidbits site are showing January and February 10mb maps with a weaker PV than December. All 3 months are below.
  9. mitchnick
    It is the Cfs, but still...
  10. mitchnick
    As someone (Ga or Griteater I believe) posted earlier about another westerly burst in December, Cfs and Gfs are both showing a relaxation of westerlies until mid December. Cfs is really gung-ho with the December burst as of now.
  11. mitchnick
    Yes. It would be even nicer to get 1 SSTA number as well. Not until this year did I even pay attention to all of them. lol
  12. mitchnick
    2.2" on the dot. Highest qpf event since summer 2021 when an afternoon of thunderstorms dropped 5".
  13. mitchnick
    Pouring harder than at any time today. No idea how much has fallen because it's raining outside. I wouldn't want to get wet.
  14. mitchnick
    Gut says that volcano may have something to do with it and the models are finally seeing it...whatever "it" is.
  15. mitchnick
    So you trust a 282 hr forecast off the Geps but not its MJO forecast? Honestly, it looks like you're trying to find any excuse for a lousy winter.
  16. mitchnick
  17. mitchnick
    So you're predicting another 76/77. Got it.
  18. mitchnick
    Rain has started with an occasional sleet pellet. Nbd
  19. mitchnick
    Despite the recent warming, the Cfs fails to get the monthly or trimonthly to +2C. It's actually done pretty well since August, which was when it last had a forecast of +2C or more by now while Euro and other dynamic models were. Nothing says it can't fail now, but I would think it'll need to change direction real soon if it's going back to +2C or more.
  20. mitchnick
    Lotsa virga out there.
  21. mitchnick
    Although I generally agree, the problem we've been having is that all the ensembles are showing 1" of snow or less over their entire 360 or 384 hr runs. As long as that's the case, I just disregard operational snowfall as flukes with no "real chance" of happening. I guess that was my point with a weenie defeatist attitude. Lol
  22. mitchnick
    Why would Webb post a Euro monthly forecast when you have the weeklies that now cover the period? Don't answer, because it's rhetorical since I know the real answer.
  23. mitchnick
    If you run through the 0z EPS through the end of the run, the SE Ridge is essentially nonexistent, which is why I posted earlier that things would change this week. The other ensembles are that different. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023112000&fh=0
  24. mitchnick
    You can get a SE ridge in a Niño as well as back and forth, especially in Nov and Dec. So I don't think it's necessarily a Nina holdover.
  25. mitchnick
    I do think that's going to change starting this week.
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