mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Thanks Larry. I don't doubt there are readings below -1C in 3.4, but I would be shocked if we get a trimonthly of -1C or lower.
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Randon flakes falling in Hanover, but the bulk of precip line apparently dried up. Oh well, Merry Christmas Eve to all!
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Yes! Oops
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Umm, that's the 0z run and not the 12z which we were discussing.
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It's going to keep rising imho. Look at the surface temp forecasts for the Pacific, specifically the cooling waters around Japan and warming in Gulf of Alaska over the next few weeks, especially so when comparing week 1 to 6. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-t?base_time=202412230000&projection=opencharts_pacific&valid_time=202412300000
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Man, did the Eps weeklies just get colder. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202412230000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202412300000
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Good news is the the Euro operational/Eps/Geps all agree on a continued decent look. Ultimately, Gefs ending is not so bad, but delays in decent storms or patterns rarely work out well.
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Geps ends well too.
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Geps gives the nodd to the Eps unsurprisingly.
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Shame they retired the Dgex. They could use another acronym in the weather field with some flair.
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Or the Gefs is slower...or the Eps too fast!
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@GaWx
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Well, we've had cold and some snow this year, which is different from last. But the feeling in the pit of my stomach seeing the new Gefs is the same as last year. Lol
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That's what I was talking about with a delay. I'm sure it's tied to their differing MJO forecasts.
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Gefs 12z is starting the delay dance a bit to my eyes.
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Don't look now, but at 270 hrs the effin' 12z Gefs are holding onto the se Canada ridge down the east coast longer along with a trough out west. That combo holds onto AN temps thru at least 1/3. It'll go on longer, but that's as far as the run goes right now. This is NOT what we want to see. Is it just the Gfs suite, idk? But hopefully it doesn't start showing up on the Eps or Geps. I am sooooo pissed right now.
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If we get that type of "pattern change," it's often preceeded by a decent sized storm. Plus, if that Hudson Bay blocking fails to completely decay, a -PNA won't be the death knell for east coasts snow threats.
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That market really is nothing short of gambling. It has nothing to do with predicting weather and more about predicting models. What a way to pay your bills.
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Of course. I have no life.
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Doesn't take long for modeling to go from fantasyland to blah. Lol
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Usetobe, a retired NWS Met out of LWX (DC) who now only posts when storms are imminent, did a study some years ago and found a -AO was a far more reliable predictor of mod and major snowstorms at DCA/BWI/Mid-Atlantic than a -NAO. So that's music to my ears Larry. Thank you!
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Eps snow mean jumped by almost 4" vs 0z run. Lol
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Wow!
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It wasn't out yet on Pivotal.
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Euro AI has been hitting it hard in that time frame for multiple runs now.
