mitchnick

Incredible how we could go into what was thought to be a slam, dunk furnace only to be quite the opposite. This is how wx weenies are made/proliferate. Lol

Did he bother to say how much snow? I honestly haven't read him for at least 10 years and I recall he loved to claim victory when it was a vague forecast of snow and not much ever felling he insinuated much more. He did have some great calls years ago, but haven't heard anyone touting anything great in a long time.

I don't know why Dave went into meteorology when it's obvious from his tender, caring writing skills, a job in palliative care or hospice would have been where could have shined as a soul mate to the dying. I can just hear him now... -Come on and die mf'er, you can't live forever -Hurry up, already, discounted funerals are always available mid-week, not that anyone will show up to see your shriveled old azz

The problem with early season cold waves is the lack of cold at the surface. Compare 850 anomalies to surface anomalies.

Euro puts many in central and southern PA out of our misery early. Lol Wonder if it's stopped trending nw?

Ukie another suppressed and strung out solution.

Yeah, for central and north, but trend going the wrong way still. Just not enough cold air injected after the front comes thru. More climo than pattern is the problem.

It was really a neat storm with probably one of the sharpest elevation cutoffs you're going to see.

All modeling really starting to kill the MJO wave vs prior forecasting. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

6z Eps got a touch warmer and snowfall line shifted north again. Trend needs to stop and start turning the other way.

Yep...and that's what worries me.

You can already see the ridge wanting to drift east at the end of the ensembles. Time will tell if and when it does because I would say it's inevitable any pattern breaks down. For that matter, both Euro and Cfs2 weeklies have the ridge moving east by the 15th. The only caveat is that the weeklies and seasonal models completely missed this cold period, so it's not out of question they screw it up again.

Sorta losing hope down here. 13/14 winter was the only winter I can remember going back through my mental records starting the winter of 72/73, that storms progged to hit, then modeled to come north, ended up coming back south. Iow, they almost always trend north and this one is no different so far. So unless we can pull a 13/14 winter miracle, it's looking like mainly a cold rain or yesterday redux imby. Obviously, weenie hope springs eternal, so I'll keep following it until the hopefully not bitter end, but odds ain't good right now imho.

18z Euro still has next week similar to 12z.

Gfs goes Blizzard at 294 hrs, but favoring eastern locations.

Funny thing is, although the Gem looked pretty good at 12z, as recently as the 0z Thursday run it showed a squashed whiff like the Ukie, Gfs and likely 18z Icon would show. Should have stayed the course instead of going dark.

Cmc as recently as Thursday's 0z showed nothing for Thanksgiving. May have been the first to be right only to go dark before maybe correcting again. Hope not.

12z Ukie had it squashed in a fast W'ly flow too and now the 18z Gfs and Icon (probably, looking at its 120 hr run) as well. Next up, 18z Euro.

Just a few "minor" adjustments to the Gfs over the last 3 runs. Lol

We can't shake the dry pattern.

Lol 18z Gfs joins the too cold squashed club. Ughh

Just checked Icon at 120 hrs and it's colder, but stops early this run. Maybe a nod to Ukie and AIEuro, idk. That 50/50 Low is growing into a monster, so maybe it is a crusher. We'll see.

There's an inch over central and southern PA at 42 hrs on the mean and 2" at 198 hrs. So a mean of 1" for next weekend potential is not great. But I did just check for the first time this winter the AIEuro and it misses is pretty far south, further than the Ukie. So it's just wait and see until Monday when we have a little better consensus.

Climo is getting colder, so we're still good in absolute terms 15 days out.

Better put your car in the garage or put the top down.