mitchnick

Fair enough. I shouldn't think so selfishly.

I was going to post something about the 6z run, but it gets tiresome being in the bullseye at 318 hrs all the time.

One can predict future cooling and warming using the same model guidance used by everyone, you included. See attached. Trades are occurring right now. I haven't predicted any huge or minimal cooling. I'm just pointing out what is actually occurring and what is being predicted in the near future (next 10 days, give or take.) I have a different perspective on this than you. This was supposed to have been +2C or more months ago, so I don't buy all those predictions from failed models and twitter forecasters. Even you admitted the other day it has failed to warm as fast as you predicted. Now, it's finally warmed to what it was supposed to have been months ago, but the problem is one of time as to whether there's enough of it to allow it to reach at least a +2C trimonthly. Maybe it will and maybe it won’t. Either way, it'll be close but won't make a difference weatherwise at this point. So like I said, it's all sport now. But because of the delay in reaching +2C, temps can't afford setbacks, even short term ones, like what the attached show. That's why I post them. If you want to take my posts for anything more than that, that's your decision.

You have been on a mission to prove that this is not going to be a super event for months. Like it’s some boogey man that you’re terrified to see. I don’t think the paranoia lies with me lol You really do take this seriously. That's crazy. But you haven't addressed my point over trades cooling before the next burst. Those are the facts.

Between now and the next burst, you have trades with cooling taking place per attached map. I'm not worried. There's no difference in weather +/- .25C imho and there's nothing we can do about it if there was. I'm just here for the sport of it. Why are you so paranoid about those who disagree with you?

It better for your prog to have any chance because it pales in comparison to the last one as of today.

I wonder if it's all downhill from here.

Porsche looked.

Just don't look at the Gfs. Don't do it.

I don't see how you can reach any such conclusions without looking at the entire Northern Hemisphere, if not the entire globe. Even then, your 2nd point is just your opinion/speculation.

Ssta and "and the associated background thermodynamic conditions." Do you know exactly what they are this year and exactly how they compare to 15/16 because it doesn't state the relative level of impact of Ssta and those "...associated background thermodynamic conditions?"

-.1°

Ensembles all look like dog doo, so it's hard to get excited until that changes.

Odd, because Coral Reefs went the other way a bit.

Icon and Gfs say we got a chance next week at 1st measurable snow. Edit: Missed Jns2183 post re Gfs.

Yep. Cfs OLR prog lock step with MJO prog. Best part for Mid Atlantic and further south I believe, it ends up just east of the dateline. May be good for NE, but not certain about that.

25

Surprising to see 3 drop so much in the last week.

Not that I feel at all comfortable defending the Cfs, but once it lost the +2 handle back in late August or early September, unlike all other guidance, it's done best. Can it cr@p the bed now? Sure, but the next warming isn't like the last one.

Fyi, current take by the Eps.

Agree with the bump, but not enough to push the mean over +2 for a month or more.

Yeah, Cfs is still unimpressed. I mention it because it is updated daily unlike the rest of the guidance.

Courtesy Eskimo Joe

Ashame that model he posted to forecast the month only goes out to the 12th and changes every day along with every other MJO prog.