mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Get used to it. This is going to be an inland winter thru mid to late January imho. The best part is we're far enough inland to get in on some of the goods, also mho. Wet snows are very common to strong or super (+2C) Niños as we are in now. Gotta wait until February, maybe late January if we're lucky, before we can expect a "cold" storm. Also imho.
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You mean like the 210 hr bomb out your way on the 18z Gfs?
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Incredible how Nam and Euro are best. Shame DT's old E-E rule hasn't survived over the years with all those crummy updates. For those who may not know, E-E was when the Euro and Nam, formerly the ETA, were lock step, it was guaranteed per DT.
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Better than 12z, but not as much as I was anticipating. But it's a positive trend nonetheless.
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Rgem will show snow at 18z. First run it has....hmmmm.
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18z Nam....youzers. here's 3k. Snow tital at 60 hrs and 60 hr map showing snow still falling for many.
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Eps and Gefs. Geps is paultry and not worth posting.
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Sorry. I should be posting the PA maps.
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Euro maps
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Yep. And the area the board covers is large. First time I wondered in was for the 12/20 storm. I was happy with my 6" before the sleet hit, but those to the west and north did soooo much better. Anyway, 12z 3k Nam shows slp in central VA when it stops at 60 hrs.
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That's what happens when you don't look at the snow maps. No way it verifies, but pretty to look at. Sorta odd that it kills the snow out west, as that's the only model doing that. But it doesn't develop the slp until coastal NJ, so the cold isn't drawn in and the precip cuts off.
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Don't listen to this guy. He's an idiot.
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Shocking! Nam does best picking up on mid and low level warming. Meaning, it never seems to go the right way and hold. Lol
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Talking simply trends, 9z Sref had more snowfall than 3z and it's not because of the extra 6 hrs since there's more out west of us too where it clearly ended. That said, I'm not a big fan of the Srefs, but I am of trends.
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Some/Most won't believe contrary views unless someone of like thinking says/agrees with it. Happens in more than just weather, which goes without saying.
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48-72 hrs prior is when you want the positive trends to start, and it looks like that what we have. The key word is "trend" because it's still too early to buy into any model output verbatim.
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But per the link below, a large portion of 30C area west of the dateline has cooled to almost normal based on 1991-2000 sea surface temps. So how much effect is it going to really have? I dunno, but it doesn't strike me as enough to overwhelm everything. The dateline east (ENSO 4) has cooled to just 28.54C per Oisst. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html
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I believe that something is wrong at MDT. Last month MDT was -.1 while Capital City airport was -.9. What's up with that?
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They don't exactly line up.
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18z Rgem has possibilities when the front moves east
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12z Eps. Pretty consistent. All we can ask.
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Yeah, this is the type of event where the hills around you score bigtime. Should more than make up for you coming up short yesterday and today.
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Makes sense. That was the tail end of a warm front that came thru with the snow this am.
