mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Nams definitely getting colder too. When the mod to heavy snow is falling on both Nams imby, temp drops from 33 to 32. At night, regardless of what the high is tomorrow, that snow falling at night at those temps will accumulate at close to typical ratios.
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Pivotal not as generous with Kuchera totals as WB. Big hit for LSV regardless.
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3k isn't finished, but it's a crushing for many AND I95. Wowzers.
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And then there's the Nam. Me and my bleeding heart. Lol
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This is the type of event that crushed my weenie heart back in MD. Not that the HRRR snowfall map is perfect imby with this, because it isn't, but I guarantee you it's right for BWI with literally no accumulations while 10 minutes west on the Baltimore beltway it drops 3". Ughh, I feel for my old neighbor who was a snow weenie like the rest of us.
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Yep. HRRR basically maintained the -2 mb throughout the run vs 18z resulting in a uptick in snowfall. Nothing crazy more, but more than 18z in general.
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HRRR is 2 mb deeper with the slp at 27 hrs vs the 18z run. Expect a bigger bomb this run methinks.
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Ughh...the dreaded warm tongue. Only time you want to see that is in certain kinds of movies.
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That's crazy. We had a lot of fog and clouds with a few hours at most of sun. We maxed in the upper 40's per nearby Wunderground sites.
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Wonder how that post would look spoken in sign language.
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Gfs operational went meh. We'll see what the Gefs do. Typically, especially at this range, they follow the operational.
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We'll have to try it. But I'm addicted to the Starlight. Apparently, it was run by other people and got a not so great rep., but improved with current owners. It has been pretty decent since we got here 4 years ago.
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This Eps product is pretty decent. You can read the full explanation at the link, but the colored dots represent each member of the Eps at 1 day for red, 5 days for pink, etc. Gives a much better idea of whether the mean is because of a consensus or an average of a huge spread with little confidence in the forecast. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202312080000
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Nice! You should do well. If I fail imby, I'm on the north side of town and only 7 minutes from the Laurel Hills subdivision atop Pigeon Hills. I know they'll jackpot, so I can't lose. That said, gun to head this very second, it looks like an inch or 2 event here with a lot of white rain. That can change between now and tomorrow night....it's an eternity when talking snow.
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I'm on my phone and just saw you're in Dillsburg. Are you in the lowlands like me or up on one of the hills to the west?
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I honestly haven't been in the NY forum for any reason since they split the site into subforums. NE, otoh, has some great posters, plus it's entertaining.
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Nam siblings are back in. Whewww...
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Agree. Let it be an early evening Christmas Day start time.
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Got the same feeling. Once we're into January, assuming all guidance with the trough in the east holds, we'll stop high 5'ing each other because of raw hands.
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Obviously not to be taken for face value, but the Gefs snowfall mean really jumped indicating that the Gefs suite is all in for snowfall unlike yesterday and before. But snowfall does not guarantee accumulating snow is the problem.
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Gem similar to Gfs on day 8. The way I figure it, both models need to average 15 miles east with each day's runs and we're gold.
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Staying a wee but too far inland. Only 32 more runs to adjust east.
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Gfs loading up at day 7+. I think this run is another biggy and likely better than 18z imho. But that's a hunch based on 5h
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Umm....Nams?
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Yeah. Nam actually has me at snow starting at 37 and then drops me to 33. I did fine with similar temps back in a March 22 event...4" But like Bubbler, would prefer colder. But you know what they say about beggars...don't waste your time looking for a handout from Mitchnick? NO! Can't be choosers!
