mitchnick

That's certainly my fear at this point. But it goes back to December when I said I was concerned with central and southern VA being the jackpot because I couldn't recall a decent winter up here when then we're bullseyed first and that you want to be in the bullseye with the first storm because that's often an indicator of the season. There's still time, but the block really suggests at this point storms will continue to gravitate to our south.

I realized that it had a bit of a longer event so attached is the 48hrs precip maps which show additional qpf up north and west.

AI GFS is, for the 2nd run in a row (maybe me but I didn't check), is a much bigger event as in most, if not all, from DCA north is snow. Pivotal doesn't offer snowfall maps for AI GFS, so here's precip. Basically, makes it a decent coastal that passes to our south.

Euro AI next week 10:1

There's a whole lot of blocking to the north thanks to the -AO. I wouldn't count on much, if any. It could even be pushed south because of it....too far south that is.

The Euro AI has had it for multiple runs. That's all that matters right now.

You'll do anything to push it south.

Yeah. I deleted my post as it popped up as soon as I made it.

Boy, do I miss driving on Ritchie Highway.....NOT!

For those wishing to enjoy the weekend snows at OBX, might I offer these links: https://www.outerbanksvoice.com/live-traffic-cams/ http://monumentcam.kdhnc.com/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=1957 The bottom site, Wright Brothers monument cam, doesn't have some certification, but I've checked it out many times instead last 10+ years without a problem.

Has some upside potential to that. 6z AI was 3"+.

Strange...I've never known you to be like this Randy.

It's overdone, but it's the Srefs. What do you expect?

Another slight improvement, this time the Ukie ensembles, but far from a hit near either metro area.

18z GEM. Top link to 500mb at 84hrs and bottom is precip same time. Slight improvement but hard to say where it would go from there. Other parameters are found in the drop down to the right of rhe word MAP. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=084 https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&stn=PT&hh=084&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

Well, it's working.

We oughta' give up more often.

No, to the Icon, Ukie, and Canadian (for its last 2 or 3 runs.)

Last 4 gfs runs. Keep an eye on the system north of the Dakotas and how the closer it gets, the further east our storm goes

Gotta get home! They don't plow snow down there very well. Lol

This place is nice and a shorter trip by an hour +. It's got a decent restaurant for hotel food, including a great breakfast buffet, and close (within walking distance) to other restaurants too. https://hiltongardeninn.bookonline.com/hotel/hilton-garden-inn-outer-banks-kitty-hawk?id2=127615453378&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=14388994732&gbraid=0AAAAABov2PZhb7oN0KEuhIv9VsotO2Q5Q&gclid=Cj0KCQiAhOfLBhCCARIsAJPiopPfC_Fxoni12uQ9_oO7O_MVFtOK11mhIAuqbrNFfuKtEo8LUyZhQ48aAmUpEALw_wcB

Way ots

And I would venture to say that it's because of the historic cold pressing that it is south. There are a few of our major snowstorms that were proceeded by historic cold, but 90%+ were not as overwhelming as this air mass.

Helluva block