mitchnick

Honestly, I've posted more about temps in this forum in the past 2 or 3 pages than I have in this or any forum. Lol In the end, there's nothing I can do about it in the large scale, so I don't care or focus on them. I hope it's cold enough to snow as often as possible over 2-3 months out of the year. If not, oh well. There's always whining to ease the pain.

Well, once the savior of the world gig predictably fails, she can get a job working for Dutch Boy paints.

Is there a map? Can you post it? Tia

Enso anomalies reluctant to make any major moves in latest readings. The -.4 is 3.4. 27AUG2025 20.5-0.3 24.3-0.6 26.3-0.4 28.5-0.2

Some yellows se of Baltimore today. Probably drought related as much as cool temps.

First, I know they try, but since there are so many stations that haven't existed since 1901, they are obviously filling in blanks. Where they received that info and how it's calculated makes or breaks it's accuracy. The fact is, Capital City airport in the northern tip of York County was +2.2 and +2.5 for June/July going back to 1939 and York Airport since the start of recording back to 1998, at the southern end of York County, was +2.1 and 2.9. They have York County at +4.1. That map has the the entire County in +3-5. So we're relying on exactly what to piece temps? As for the recent heat, it means nothing to me. I'm not scared.

Doubt it in reality, but with the website you're using it may be the case

According to Harrisburg Capital Airport, that's been open in the same location and collecting data since 1939, this summer was -.7F.

That map, though maybe close and maybe not, is not completely accurate per the map creator. https://prism.oregonstate.edu/historical/ They even state: Values prior to 1981 are based on less extensive observations.

Your summer 2025 was only for June and July. Adding August will make a noticeable difference methinks.

My guess would be location of thermometer to surface material grass vs. concrete (light colored hard surface) or asphalt (dark colored hard surface), sunlight, buildings, and river, or a combination of 2 or more, which results in warmer readings relative to other locations that have properly placed thermometers. "Properly placed" as in not effected by known microclimate features or natural microclimate features like direct sunlight or the Susquehanna river.

Both Harrisburg airports have remained at the same location since they started reporting weather obs. MDT records go back to 1992 while Harrisburg Capital Airport go all the way back to 1939. If you had any doubts that MDT records are questionable, as many have mentioned/joked since I purchased a home in 2019 and followed the forum, this summer's records are all the evidence you need. MDT monthly temp anomalies respectively: +1.3, +2.5, -2.6 = monthly average of +.4 (normal is ofter defined as +/- .5) Capital Airport monthly temp anomalies respectively: +.7, +1.2, -4.0 = monthly average of -.7

@snowman19 I think you'll like this. Great solar presentation.

Unfortunately, that private company, despite their name, has got to find something on every model run to pimp their pov. Temp difference in the east between the 2 runs is negligible without a mention of it in their post.

I think if you liked last year, you'll like this year and vice-versa. Fwiw, Enso will not be quite as cool as last year, but subsurface probably close.

Last year's 9/1 forecast for 12/24-2/25 very similar.

In contrast, this was the Cansips forecast from 9/24 for 12/24-2/25. Pretty similar all things considered.

3 month temp average off the latest Cansips. Fwiw, Cansips has a Niño developing by next summer, but it's record with long term Enso forecasts ain't so hot.

New Cansips is out. Looks like it's August forecast with D-F temps at or ever so slightly AN. It may be a hair warmer than last month the further south you go. Does look dry as it did last month. Until we shake the Niña, or Niña like features equatorially, we stay on the dry side. Fwiw, it does have a Niño developing next summer.

Being on the eastern flank of the BN temps with the Atlantic to our east looks pretty palatable to these weenie eyes.

MDT was -10.4 for 8/30 and Capital City Airport was -13.4. Interesting considering Capital City records go back to 1939 and MDT only 1992.

Stop reading the CC forum or you'll go blind! Seriously, Euro weeklies have winds at 10mb dying down if that forecast can be trusted.

I haven't followed JB at all for 10 years or so. Almost don't have to since enough people do and post his musings.

I noticed over in the MA Medium Range thread that the Euro weeklies have been getting progressively cooler as the forecast periods approach. Interestingly, while searching for any tidbits for early winter thoughts on YouTube, I found a September forecast from Bam Weather. It looks like I'm not the only one who noticed the changes on the weeklies. According to Bam, both the regular Eps products and Gefs have been too warm lately. Otoh, the EPS AI has been much better. I put the link to the video below and it's got some decent info in addition to the comments on the EPS AI. Take a look if you get a chance. More importantly, the performance of the EPS AI should probably be followed through the Fall to see if it holds any edge come winter.

As you may have noticed over in the Medium Range thread, the Euro weeklies have been getting progressively cooler as the forecast periods approach. Interestingly, while searching for any tidbits for early winter thoughts on YouTube, I found a September forecast from Bam Weather. It looks like I'm not the only one who noticed the changes on the weeklies. According to Bam, both the regular Eps products and Gefs have been too warm lately. Otoh, the EPS AI has been much better. I put the link to the video below and it's got some decent info in addition to the comments on the EPS AI. Take a look if you get a chance. More importantly, the performance of the EPS AI should probably be followed through the Fall to see if it holds any edge come winter.