mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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If you look at the progression of the Euro, it brings the northern stream trough down with a delay that allows the Baja low to fully ejected and the 2 combined/phased are what we get with that 5H anomaly map I posted.
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At 144hrs, the slp is sitting over Nags Head with the 50/50 feeding in cold air and the midwest trough pulling in the Gulf moisture while the slp is sorta stuck. Oh boy!
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And look where the main trough is! It's going to be snowing for a while after that and ratios will be 2/10/10-like potentially.
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Euro another small tick slower this run.
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If that northern stream trough on the Euro was to sharpen some, it could tug the coastal back, or hold it in place an additional 3-6 hours, then we're not in business but in trouble. Lol
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The snowfall pattern on the Euro last night tells me it'll come further north and even up thru NE should do well. They already did OK on 0z, but I'll bet it gets better for them...and probably us too.
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With that much qpf, who cares? Anyway, the weight of that much snow always compacts.
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Gfs zoomed out.
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Check out the date of Sunday....1/25!
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Seems a touch slower. That might be our key to a further north trajectory.
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At 78hrs, heights are noticeably higher on the east coast.
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At 108hrs it does look better than 18z.
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Maybe it'll turn out better, but I ain't seeing it yet
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Icon leaves the Baja trough dangling.
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Would love to see that vortex in Canada drift a bit to the north and west by 50+ miles.
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I just pulled it up???
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Idk if it was how I said it to get those reactions, but 18z qpf really went down from 12z on the EuroAI ensembles (EPS).
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On the darker side, EuroAI ensembles looked to have lowered 12z qpf at DCA and BWI by .3" and York, PA by .2". Hopefully a blip.
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I said it looks like a part 2 for us up north in light of that northern stream trough.
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Snowfall total on 18z EuroAI is incredible and there is a blizzard ongoing on the last frame sure to add more had the run been longer.
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Mitchland too!
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Just checked 12z and that trough over Iowa wasn't there, just a tail of the trough over eastern Canada. .
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Look what's coming in up top at 144hrs. That'll definitely enhance snowfall. I think with that High pressure puling off the NE coast driving in cold ocean air and that trough coming in, there will be a part 2 for us northern folks.
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Ai has a 2nd event centered again in s va and MD eastern shore.
