mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Almost, but not yet. But that will come if we fail with snow. Trust me.
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Got me pegged! Lol I'm just getting old and crusty.
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I'm just tired of getting psyched for something good, only to turn out bad when, in retrospect, I could have seen it coming with a deeper dive. This effin' Niña is killing snow chances. And even if it does snow, they're weak, dry sauce. And the worse part is, we're stuck with it this winter.
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You're missing my point. As we get closer to the week(s) after 1/12, can we expect them to get warmer too? And why shouldn't we since the models were too warm since 12/1, being wrong going the other way is a death blow to prime winter. Again, I can't say what will happen, but I can say model performance this year gives me no confidence in any forecast past 5-7 days.
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Just to put a point on what I'm saying, look at the last 3 days from the weeklies for temps during the week of 1/5-1/12. Sunday's is on top, then yesterday, and today. So we get warmer as we approach the forecast period? That's no way to run a winter if you want snow. Not saying it's over or it won't happen ultimately, but I am saying my confidence in the models is essentially gone.
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With every operational model run, I'm doubting more and more the great pattern. The trough always ends up across the Pac NW, leading to a ridge somewhere in the east. Getting close to pulling the plug. The models were way too warm in December. Now when they're cold we should believe them as being correct?
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I think you just wasted a perfectly good ALEET for nothing.
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Nah....alcohol
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Yikes at the cold at the end of the Gfs run.
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Oh yeah...great start too! https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512300000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601120000
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I doubt the cold pool is a problem. It's not not expansive and not very cold while surrounded by AN water temps. The -PNA otoh is. These runs make me think that SE ridge is real. Of course, it can change in 6 or 12 hours, which is a true testament of the accuracy of these so-called "predictive" models. Times like now when I wish we only had 936-1212! Lol
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It had a pressing cold that never made it south. In any event, Gfs and Gem runs are crap assuming Gfs snow around 190hrs is fantasy
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SE ridge. I was walking when I typed. Lol
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12z Gfs and Gem both like the SECfor day 10 threat. Lol Impressive threat afterwards on Gfs fwiw.
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Seems like a lot of mets feel that way, but down here anything short of near model and ensemble consensus ends up a fail or disappointment.
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Whether you like Bamwx or not, he has some great explanations for coming pattern, and should watch.
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BAM WX says walk away from the cliff.
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Speaking of changing ensembles, Gefs' 6z run just took a pretty big jump toward the Eps. End of 0z on top and 6z on bottom. Lol
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I should have added that with the SE ridge on the 6z Gfs, it offered a great overrunning threat at the end of the run. Too bad it won't be right.
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Gefs continue to give us a SE ridge after multiple runs. It is a Niña still, so so I don't think we'll can write it off completely or assume the Eps will prevail.
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Ensembles are supposed to trump operationals, but they can, and do, change just as fast as the operationals making them marginally more accurate than the operationals imho.
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Looks like around 16" imby. If that's not just average, it's only barely over imby. Lol
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Gefs definitely likes the period too.
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At 312hrs, Gfs puts a tpv over Hudson Bay. Won't be shocked if we see it try another one before the end of the run.
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This is about as close to the snowfall forecasts before 2/6/10 as you'll ever see.
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