mitchnick

Let's hope he's right this time!

It's in Europe. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512200000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000 Coincidentally, Europe was really cold before we had our cold starting mid-late November, so maybe we live through AN in January while we wait for another chance late Januaryinto February. Just a thought...or prayer.

It's been the same Niña base state, despite Niño in 23/24, so I'd believe it.

What a fantasy ending on the 0z Gfs

Heavy snow shower here. Some yellow on radar, but very brief.

No, that's called a euphuked.

Line came through here with some wind and heavy rain. Not bad. Probably because it came through so fast.

Surprisingly, Euro weeklies are not quite as warm as yesterday fwiw. It keeps us near or just south of the normal line unlike yesterday which had us AN until the end of January. But it's not a pattern conducive to snowfall. Looks more like our chances would be along the lines of threats advertised on the 6z Gfs, if anything. Here's a link. You can adjust the date of the runs to see what the previous 3+ weeks of runs looked like too. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202512290000 Edit: all weekly products can be found here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Sub-seasonal"]}

You mentioned that previously, but the Cfs has it getting stronger in its last few forecasts. Here's the latest. When I say strongest, I mean more members are calling for a temp drop.

Imho, what has thrown a monkey wrench into the mix is the Niña has unexpectedly come back to life. A few weeks ago, it was supposed to have been dead with a solid neutral by now. Instead, those effin' trade winds are back with a vengeance and look to be sticking around into late January. This 850 wind anomaly prog only goes through mid January, but the longer one has it going through most of January, then neutral.

I have always likened it to discussing how a sports team may perform if they can trade for this guy or that guy. It's harmless speculation on a subject we enjoy that costs nothing. And nobody's hurt by it because nothing can get through the scars we all have suffered from countless busts! Lol

You can say it....we're due!

At least we have a home address.

Block was lousy throughout the run really resulting in few cold intrusions.

That surface high at 288hrs looks too far east vs 6z.

Not over and threats are later.

Time to watch is the rising back up after 12/28.

Last night's Euro had a very similar scenario, but a few days later and kept the bulk of the system to our south. Close enough, however, to qualify as a match in my weenie manual! Lol

Fwiw, 6z AIGFS has essentially the same threat as the Gfs, just a bit more "realistic"?

6z Gfs at 318hrs is best case scenario with this pattern.

Just gunna' post that the 6z Gfs has a couple of threats and the run hasn't ended. I think as the operational models detect that block, we'll start to see threats showing up along the cold air boundary.

0z AIGFS has 2 snow threats. One starting at 210hrs: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025121800&fh=210 The other threat starting at 288hrs: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025121800&fh=288 Unfortunately, neither Tropical Tidbits nor Pivotal have pretty surface maps showing snow, only precip. But if you use those TT links and look at Pivotal 850, 925 and surface temps, it's snow, or rain to snow depending on exact location.

In a word...blocking. See JI's post above.