mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Updated Euro seasonal out and it can't get out of its own way insisting on AN temps in the east. Don't buy it as mby has been BN for October and November contrary to the Eps seasonal. Heck, even September was only +.5F, also cooler than forecasted. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
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https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_l.html
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Hrrr support from the Srefs
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18z Rgem came north fwiw.
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No! We've seen failures in shorter times. Lol
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18z Nam's a wreck. I think we're better off if the 12/5 threat fizzled and left some energy behind for our next long shot.
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In a word....Ughhh
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Watch the follow-up on the Gfs. Might be something, might not.
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The question is whether the 6z Euro being its over-amped self. Idk
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Fwiw, 12z Rgem went a bit south of 6z. Not worth posting.
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Fine. I'm starting a thread for each separate model run beginning with 12z today in an effort to confuse it.
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For once, the trend is our friend. But when you think about it, it's looking like a typical north trend. Hopefully, 48hrs isn't enough time for too much. Of course, now that I said that, it'll shift south at 12z!
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You're too quick. I deleted after I saw that. Lol
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6z Eps
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You people are weirdos.
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6z Euro
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6z Rgem came north and brings 1" up to DCA & BWI. Nothing yet for me (wipe that smile off your face!)
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Nah. Gem completely crushes round 2. That trough in Canada is a monster as modeled. Unless things change, fugetaboutit.
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Gem might have a better shot at round 2.
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It's the Gfs. It'll be different in 6 hrs
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The trough in se Canada looks crushing
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I feel like we've gotten the band back together.
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That's likely why our storm gets pushed east unfortunately.
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Solid run? Maybe some chunks, but solid?
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Gfs isn't interested in anything over the next week+ unfortunately except for a fast, compressed flow.
