mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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That's thru Sunday 6pm only
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That shouldn't be the case based on those maps.
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We should, except for maybe 2-3 hours of mix worst case. Being conservative obviously.
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That's pretty good.
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Accurate enough for us not to want them to have posted it.
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Are you posting from Reston, VA or a rest home in Virginia?
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Comparing 15z Srefs 78hr snowfall total to 9z Srefs 84hr snowfall total. 15Z IS BETTER!!!
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Eps fwiw at this point. Pretty consistent if nothing else.
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Go to any 7-11 and make yourself a large cup of crushed ice.
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It'll crush Altoona once inside 48 hours. Lol
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Not out yet, but maybe be getting past usefulness at this range.
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Once Pivotal catches up, they have sounding plots by clicking on the location. That may be pay only, but they are only $99/year or $10-$12/month.
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Looooooooong duration. Now that that is locked in, we work on thermals.
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That's not bad based on heights.
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Which probably allows the confluence to leave.
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That's cold smoke right there.
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Maybe if I say it enough times. Lol Seriously, the warm layer on the Rgem is shallow and just above freezing, so "maybe" was my thinking/hope.
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Rgem 84hrs, surface low off the coast with plenty precip to the w sw. If it changes back, that's a nice backside of fluff.
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Last comment on 12z Nam, if you look at the 84hrs Conus surface map, there was a lot of precip to go. It was definitely heading toward the long long duration scenario of one form of precip or another.
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That was the first huge sign to me the upgraded Euro stunk because the night before (0z) it dropped 20"+ imby, then the next run was 12"+, and I ended up with 3"+.
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Yes, and remember a couple days ago the Nam went hard on an appetizer (1-3") just to the south of the Metros at the end of its run for Friday, and that's Poof!
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Can't expect the Nam to get all thermals correct at the far reaches of its forecast period. And it's the far reaches where thermals become an important factor in final snow totals.
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In the overall pattern, they have been in the long range. But I don't know if that applies in the short range....probably not, since each storm is different with its unique conditions.
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Probably not wet due to low temps from 850mb down. More likely rimed or mini snowballs until the warm layer is deep enough to completely melt the flakes and then fall as sleet imho.
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Looking at the 6z Ukie, it's a little cooler at 66hrs than 0z at 72hrs thanks to some better confluence. May be a tad slower. Cooler is probably likely since ensembles responded.
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