mitchnick

AiGfs barely clips MD/DCA and south compared to Gfs. Hardly any qpf north of PA/MD border.

Extended 9z (C)RAP does bring light precip (.05" or less) through us, but it's rain. Lol

I know usefulness at this point may be questioned, but here's the 24hr snowfall off 6z runs of Eps and Gefs.

6z Eps 24hr snowfall at 144hrs. Eps thinks there's something to next week. Probably would have been more if run didn't stop at 144hrs.

As you would expect, Gefs snowfall came south.

Not quite my 100 miles, but getting there. Hopefully, not all the way to the EuroAI. Wait, who am I trying to kid here? Lol

Canadian an inch or 2. Meh

Central and northern PA at 2'+. Wonder if the Gfs is treating them like it treated us with its early runs for this past weekend. Love to see that come 100 miles south.

0z AIGFS a moderate hit, but total qpf for it hasn't updated yet. Part 2 is weaker and likely has temp issues.

0z says Gfs had it's 1 win for the year in our back yards, and this isn't going to be number 2.

Every other model is likewise except the AIGFS clips us vs the flush hit on the Gfs. But I'm thinking we may as well flush the Gfs forecast. Unless you want to bet on the Gfs vs the world.

That's threat #3

Still feasible at this range to get into the yellow 24"+.

Well, Canadian gives you twice mby, Euro gives me 3.3" and you 2.4". It's really the Gfs with the great disparity, and it's fair to say, that ain't holding for 7 days this winter. Could be congrats Chill ultimately.

Probably the best consensus at this range all season for at least a measurable event+.

After Sunday, I was ready for it with a disgusted attitude. But after seeing the Gfs and Canadian, I'd love to get 1 more, then let it cook. Sun and 70'ish sounds pretty good right now.

This why next week is likely the end of the line. Lol

Well, I should have mentioned that when I posted I had little doubt that it would get shoved south as we approached it.

Next week on the Gfs in mby is sufficient for me to forget 2 days ago and end the winter looking forward to next year's Niño.

I got so use to seeing Kuchera maps noticeably higher than 10:1 from all the cold, now they're back to reminding me where I live. Bleh

Gfs is decent. Meh, inch or 2. Looked better on surface map than snowfall map.

I said it after the first failed threat in December, we need all models on board if we expect to score. I should have stuck with that premise over the weekend but put my chips on the failed, overperformer modeling. Oh well, just another live and never learn in the wacky, weenie world of snowpium. As for next week, I haven't even looked at it, taking the one threat/failure at a time approach. One thing is for sure, not saying they will be right, but all modeling ends winter after next week. So if it's going to happen, next week is it.

Don't be so cocky!

Here's a link to the Cansips SSTA starting in November. Looks basinwide with a lean to the west. Not a classic Modoki imho unfortunately. But the key will be the PDO and blocking coupled with this forecast, right or wrong. Forecast will be updated this weekend. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2026020100&fh=9