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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    How dare they ruin the reputation of LinkedIn with 1 random post.
  2. mitchnick
    Yep. And if you scroll thru the slp maps for each month, you can easily imagine at least one good hit down your way. January, and especially February, even show cold air/ridging pressing south along the Appalachians starting in Virginia. Here's a link to December: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026060406&fh=6
  3. mitchnick
    Lower pressures =lower temps with lowest temps reflected near/under lowest pressures...meteorology. Why soooooo serious anyway? I said for entertainment purposes.
  4. mitchnick
    Like I said, December ain't so bad. Here are temps. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026060400&fh=6 February and definitely March look better taking into consideration seasonal temps for the period. But as I said, entertainment purposes at this point. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026060400&fh=8 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026060400&fh=9
  5. mitchnick
    Fwliw, Cfs2 is entertaining for February and March. December on the last run verbatim ain't so bad either for the Mid Atlantic, but dry up near you. The beauty of the Cfs2 is that it changes 4x/day, so everybody has a good run at some point of the day. Lol Starting in December. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026060400&fh=6
  6. mitchnick
    Cansips was the only seasonal model showing any BN temps in the GL/east/NE. In that respect, it was, as you stated, the best in at least those areas. It was similar in 24/25 with a cooler forecast than other models. The Cfs2 and Euro have been boiler plate AN across the country the last 2 years. Speaking for myself, I don't care about the rest of the country or any other part of the world, fry or freeze.
  7. mitchnick
    Who cares
  8. mitchnick
    It didn't cave last year or the year before either fwiw, and did pretty well with the BN temps forecasts.
  9. mitchnick
    It hasn't happened yet! It's a forecast. Eps were too warm with the end of May forecast, soooo....
  10. mitchnick
    I sorta thought the whole discussion regarding Enso was how it effects weather. I don't think anybody really would care otherwise about equatorial Pacific temperatures outside of Pacific fishermen/shipping interests.
  11. mitchnick
    Looked good to me!
  12. mitchnick
    Looks like the Euro failed on this warm forecast.
  13. mitchnick
    @Stormchaserchuck1 How's the May NAO index off Newoundland looking so far if you don't mind me asking?
  14. mitchnick
    Had an inch up here in Hanover, with the next round underway. Nws has us totaling around 2" +/- thru Sunday. Since I hate mowing...this sux. But we do need the rain. The lake at Codoras State Park is at least 5' BN.
  15. mitchnick
    Hey, my alma mater! "In a 2023 paper, Robert Leamon of NASA and the University of Maryland (Baltimore County) made a striking prediction: The next El Niño would arrive in 2026." I was a Political Science major. They didn't have a met department, but I took every weather related Geography course they offered.
  16. mitchnick
    Speaking of down south, you're going to love that last few runs of the Cfs2, especially February.
  17. mitchnick
    We still don't know when it peaks or where residual warming/forcing resides as it decays. Those factors, IMHO, will determine whether the east and south have a chance at a big storm(s) in the second half of winter.
  18. mitchnick
    For the other parameters of the May Euro seasonal, go here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]} I'm not disappointed with what I'm seeing all things considered.
  19. mitchnick
    Don't know if anyone noticed, but since start of May FWIW, the Cfs2, which had been pretty AN for the winter, has backed down on the warmth quite a bit. Notwithstanding the usual long range Cfs2 caveats, it is, at least, a bit of a nod to the Cansips even if it still has a way to go. Here's a link to the latest 5H and surface temps starting at December. If you compare December and January to late April runs, you'll see what I mean. February's forecast just started showing up on May 1. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026050406&fh=7 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026050406&fh=7
  20. mitchnick
    The raw RONI and Cfs forecasts are usually way more extreme than the bias corrected, which often more accurate at this range. Bias corrected RONI still <2. I've never seen any of these posters mention the bias corrected.
  21. mitchnick
    But that also had the -PDO from hell (which I think you're referring to) that just killed any chance. It could happen again, but odds don't favor that happening again imho.
  22. mitchnick
    I recall Snowman posting the BOMM at +3-3.25C in 2023 and only broke +2C for 1 trimonthly. Location of the best forcing will be what makes or breaks winter in the east this year.
  23. mitchnick
    Is it me, or are these mets hyping this Niño acting like they've never seen one before? I mean, there's going to be a mod or strong Niño. So what...we just had one a few years ago and a 3rd one in 10 years. You'd think it was another Pinatubo event by their tone.
  24. mitchnick
    Nailed me. Still raining. Has to be closed to an inch or more with lots of T&L.
  25. mitchnick
    Don't fret the AN temps. April 2002 had a similar period with temps in the 90's if I recall. All I remember is that it was particularly miserable thanks to poison ivy I was enjoying at the time. Ughhh
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