mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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If February was to surprise us to the positive, I doubt we see that coming before mid-January. The best weak Nina to my recollection in the MA was 95/96. But even that had a nasty thaw in January. But odds now certainly favor a lousy February, at least south of NE.
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All comes down to what the individual members show. A couple of big hits skewing the mean to make it useless or a decent number of moderate hits with a few big dogs and dogs averaging things out.
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Great video on solar activity over the next couple weeks. Pole region predicted to get decent solar storm activity. Wonder what it does for AO/NAO prospects.
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I'm using the World Climate website. It's been mentioned by Gawx many times it's lower than the site you posted. Either site is fine if you're using it for relative changes compared to historical values, which is is all I'm doing.
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Last year on this date, we were a hair lower than -2. This year's -1.31 is much better than last year (if you want snow in the east), so maybe we can make it sufficiently high enough to make a difference. There's still time in light of the trend over the last 3 months.
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Sorry. I'll wait for something earth shattering before I post. Can your attitude get any worse? I was just updating the numbers.
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Cooling around Japan continuing a slow and steady rising of the PDO too.
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I like that the trough is centered further west than the Lakes because it "should" open up the Gulf and Atlantic for overrunning while remaining cold enough for many for snow/frozen chances. If the trough was over the Lakes, it's cold/dry city outside that LES beneficiaries.
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Wxmodels DJF 500mb looks better than the free graphics from the Euro site.
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Euro seasonal for December from MA forum.
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February Niñas are notoriously warm and dry with few exceptions unfortunately. We'll definitely need to hope late November thru January work out or we're outta luck (short of 1 of those few exceptions.)
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Yeah. I suspect the new forecast came in cooler thanks to what is showing up in the extended forecasts for December. Unless we get lucky with the strat as you said, the Niña totally collapses into something like a weak Niño, or just plain luck, I'm already brushing up on my 4-letter word vocabulary for February.
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Comparison to this year's 500mb anomaly forecast for DJF and last year (bottom)
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Here's a link to all the seasonal Euro if interested. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
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Updated Euro seasonal out today. DJF cooler than last run fwiw.
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Updated Euro seasonal out. DJF cooler than last run fwiw.
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I know CAPE is seeing #09 and thinking to himself..."it's in the bag weenies."
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You do realize that Dr. Sacoransky is an intern radiologist and not a met? Not that one needs to be a met to post about weather as we all know, but you post him often as gospel it seems.
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I hope the Blue Jays win the WS.
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New Cansips for November. Scroll forward for rest of the forecast. December looking like many other recent forecasts too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=0
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Cansip gives us our well deserved Modoki Niño for next year too! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025110100&fh=11
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New Cansips starts Dec temps with this link below. You can scroll forward from there and switch to H5.. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=1 Dry for December, but around normal precip Jan and Feb. Close up for easter US: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=eus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=1 Fairly typical Nina with February the warmest of the 3.
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You posted the 15 day change map. The anomaly map looks quite a bit different for better or for worse.
