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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    I will assume, unless you mention otherwise, the latest Euro forecast. What if the Euro or other models cool in November? Still warmer than the Euro?
  2. mitchnick
    Thanks for narrowing it down. And which model was that and which month's forecast?
  3. mitchnick
    I can't lose. If it's warmer, my nice, dirty carbon rich oil bill won't be so bad this year. If it's not, it'll snow. Of course, you didn't mention exactly where it's going to be warmer than seasonal modeling, nor did you mention which seasonal model. But even a stellar seasonal model forecast will be too cool in spots and too warm, so you really can't lose with that "forecast."
  4. mitchnick
    I never would have guessed. Lol
  5. mitchnick
    Sunshine back Nice rainbow too
  6. mitchnick
    Crushing now, but it's a thin line moving fast, so the western horizon is brightening fast.
  7. mitchnick
    Anyone notice that persistent block on the ensembles that's been hanging out over northern Russia? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026101612&fh=102 As for winter, I know it will be great imby.....the Dodgers lost!!!
  8. mitchnick
    You're always colder than modeling it seems. I'd say 30-31.
  9. mitchnick
    Not 1 seasonal at any time as far as I can recall had anything but a solid AN for December. The change, if it's coming, would be/start sometime in January.
  10. mitchnick
    3.5" imby
  11. mitchnick
    If you're practicing for winter early, trust me when I say you don't need the practice. Geez, at least wait until it can reasonably snow throughout the area, and that will likely be a while this year.
  12. mitchnick
    Euro Copernicus temps D, J, F & M. Precip AN along the east coast similar to Euro seasonal.
  13. mitchnick
    Euro forecast looks similar to Cfs2 in 3, 3.4 and 4 interestingly. I guess we wait to see what happens.
  14. mitchnick
    Fading blue sky overhead with some tow I'm seeing some fading blue sky overhead with the dark clouds to my south.
  15. mitchnick
    Ninja'd!
  16. mitchnick
    Lots of thunder headed towards mby that's currently in Carroll County.
  17. mitchnick
    2.4" on the dot
  18. mitchnick
    Yes, but if you use the slide function to put the forecast in motion, the cooler waters are making a bee-line east. Should they continue after the end of the forecast period (7/27), you'd probably at least end up with a La Nada next winter, if not a weak Niña imho. I guess the question then is why wouldn't the cooler waters continue east? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=global&pkg=ssta&runtime=2026101100&fh=1
  19. mitchnick
    This is what the 12z Gfs drops after 2pm today.
  20. mitchnick
    I was just out in it. Feel like and old, wet rag. Meanwhile, it continues to pour.
  21. mitchnick
    Probably some torrential downpours to get us to those totals.
  22. mitchnick
    Eps (top) and Eps Aifs hold strong.
  23. mitchnick
    18z Gfs. 18z AI Gfs on the bottom.
  24. mitchnick
    Wow. EPS AIFS
  25. mitchnick
    Yikes! Under the yellow (probably @TSSN+too!) @psuhoffman into the tan!!! Hope it's typical Euro overdone.
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