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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Comparing 5H anomalies 6z vs 0z, 0z looks better organized with the southern vort, but 6z has energy dropping south from the Great Lakes that wasn't there at 0z. That's a wild card.
  2. mitchnick
    You saw the stats on modeling that were posted. It's the worst. The problem is that when it shows something good, we make the mistake of wanting to believe this will be the time when it's right. Of course, it isn't. So now weenies in NE are us from last night for 6 hours until it pulls the rug on them like us.
  3. mitchnick
    At least you don't have much to lose.
  4. mitchnick
    6z Gfs hasn't given up on 15th/17th. Not huge but snow.
  5. mitchnick
    Yep. I'm thinking Eps reflecting the flatter "mess" of 18z. But we're far enough out to get too concerned. We do need to see 0z come back to a stronger, more consolidated vort imho.
  6. mitchnick
    Eps. 12z on top
  7. mitchnick
    12z on top, 18z below.
  8. mitchnick
    I hate to disagree. Too far west and rounder. I prefer 12z look. EDIT: Looks pretty different on the surface too.
  9. mitchnick
    My weenie prediction is yesterday's 6z bomb run was to portend how this system ends up as the 18z run from 120hrs out in 2/07 ended up being the red flag for that storm.
  10. mitchnick
    With the model runs today taken as a whole, it feels/seems like the way things look a week before a typical decent event...some hits and misses. Definitely a different vibe from the last week or more. As much as some may think I am dying to pi$$ on the parade, I'm actually pretty enthusiastic with what I'm seeing. A few more tweaks and we're there.
  11. mitchnick
    What happens in between those hours? Snowfall maps?
  12. mitchnick
    It's a start!
  13. mitchnick
    Mainly BN on Tropical Tidbits, but, as usual, no where near WB even considering WB is F and TT is Celsius. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2026010806&fh=168
  14. mitchnick
    Fwiw, Ukie is flat as a frying pan.
  15. mitchnick
    Gem misses but may give some upper low stuff
  16. mitchnick
    Never forget the Dgex victory a week+ before 2/6/10 & 2/10/10. It had us down for 36" and we all laughed.
  17. mitchnick
    Kuchera better
  18. mitchnick
    I don't think the storm would be ending fast on the Icon despite that surface map. If you look at the 700mb RH and wind direction along with 500mb vorticity, I think snow would linger. Here are the links. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=700rh&rh=2026010812&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500hv&rh=2026010812&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  19. mitchnick
    Saw it coming
  20. mitchnick
    Better yet at 174
  21. mitchnick
    Icon at 162hrs looks not so bad. Let's see how it goes.
  22. mitchnick
    You can get SSTA maps and figures here. Use the Oisst instead of CRW under the "Option" as it's more accurate. https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/
  23. mitchnick
    It may be the Geps, but that's actually pretty!
  24. mitchnick
    More so on Pivotal
  25. mitchnick
    I agree on the first part, but none of the ensembles are going truly warm. If it changes, so be it.
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