mitchnick

Fwiw, 18z Nam gives the combined metro areas a coating to at most an inch tomorrow night, and the Icon refuses to give up on the Cape storm for those N and W, with far NW favored.

As many reasons as there are ensemble members, and then some.

Might I suggest far NNE. They don't have internet.

Gefs like Sunday into Monday fwiw. 24hr snowfall.

No, moderate Niño.

This way out there and low skill (unlike the precision of the Euro ), but the Cfs2 has been hammering for weeks a well AN precip March as reflected in the attached map. Looks Niño to me. But IF correct and we can get it falling at the start of the month with the most favorable temps, we might have a shot at some measurable March snows which have disappeared since 2018. I know, I know,...snows in general have disappeared as well, but after a decent string of March snows starting in 2014, they have generally been MIA since 2018; arguably, 2019 did have an event that was small at all airports and IAD had a few inches in 2022, but they were not area wide.

9z Srefs like the idea of rain ending as snow too. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2026011306&fh=384&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

It shifted south from 0z, so quit complaining.

6z EuroAI cozying up to the idea too.

6z Nam getting on board for tomorrow night...sort of.

Should have waited for the Euro.

Fwiw, 18z Eps gives us an inch and operational just shy of it.

Odd, wasn't it? We always get pure snow every winter. Must be another Gfs error.

Looked like a 3rd one was lining up at the end too.

Surprised no one mentioned (assuming I didn't miss it) the end of all 3 ensembles from 12z. Incredible agreement and great, great pattern. Here's the Eps with links to the other 2. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026011212&fh=384 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026011212&fh=384

I'll take the Canadian please. 2 shots

Yep. Known biases. Now, the biases change with the system.

Go back to sleep. You have 180 hours to rest. Lol By the way, Gefs and Geps are similar.

EPS really high on 2nd half of the forecast period. Top map is snowfall at 180hrs and bottom map 360hrs.

GfsAI has a 6-10" snow around the 23rd-24th fwiw. It's something. Lol

The Ukie had a very similar 5H vort on its 168hrs map. Let's see what the 0z run looks like.

No, Miller B I'd gladly take.

You left your glove!

I know. I was just commenting on the trough. Otoh, look at the Canadian 168hrs map.

They base those stats on 500mb. Even if the 500mb progs are better, the surface predictions are no better to worse imby. Right or wrong, nobody will convince me otherwise.