mitchnick

Canadian ensembles

Hanover

Entire Eps run droolworthy.

It's been bullish for Tuesday almost from the start. We'll know in a few days if it should be belived in the future.

Yep, pigs get slaughtered.

I knew I had seen the surface maps showing surface Highs moving off the coast to our east and NE. I found it. Looks like we may hve to get used to it for the winter if the Euro seasonal is correct. The link below is for the period of Dec-Feb. If you scroll forward to J-M, it's even stronger. As long as we get better cold into the area, we should still have our shots at snow. Next week's problem is only being 3-4 degrees too warm, which is more a function of the early season. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_mslp?area=NAME&base_time=202511010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202512020000

I'm interested is seeing whether the Euro's snowy start to the run will continue to the end as it often seems to do.

Pivotal Kuchera

Filet-of-sole...and heel!

Your head should be in good shape then!

Yesterday's PV forecast has it impotent thru early January again.

I'm having some serious doubts for mby. I need a cooling trend to start if not today, definitely by tomorrow.

Seems a wee bit aggressive for so early in the season in light of the se'ly flow.

I mistakenly loaded the Euro AI totals for the 360hr run, so I deleted it. Here are the 0z and 6z for just Tuesday.

6z Euro and Eps

Just gunna' post this! Certainly, best case.

Climo is always a viable option forecast at 4-5 days. It may be right, but it may be wrong. It's too early on this one. I will say that I'd love to see this a hit along the lines of the Euro 12z because I'm a firm believer that the first threat event gives a strong hint at the winter's seasonal pattern.

Typical for 4 days out.

18z Euro went weak pos, but further south a touch.

Looks like my days posting in this forum will be over if that comes close to verifying.

Kuchera for better or worse.

A weak p.o.s. is on the table imho. Without a stronger higher, the cold air will give up on the fight easier and we'll lose lift. So I'm not feeling locked in on any scenario at this point.

Personally feel that'll be the trend in keeping with the season. How far, who knows. Still think we're all in the game, but odds do favor N & W like 80-90% of all snow chances around here.

Icon isn't great, but it has creeped further south making it a lot closer than 0z and 6z.

We'll take anything we can get.