mitchnick

Because this board/thread is for upcoming threats per title and there is a separate forum for it. So just like we don't go into the climate change forum to discuss storm threats in the coming weeks, we don't come into this forum to argue over climate change issues. Plus, it inevitably leads to unnecessary arguments.

Euro has been all over the place over the last week. It's terrible too.

Need clouds to start arriving by 5:50-6am tomorrow.

Snow-cover should aid in surface temps. Not by much but anything will help.

It's a step in the right direction, which seems to be the case on all modeling so far today. Some have made substantial changes with others only minor, but they all seem to be in the right direction. If we keep going ghru the day and night, we may just have to get WxUSAF to crawl out of bed and change the thread title to PDIII! lol

I didn't pay attention to the Ukie's last 2 runs, but you can see how it really beefed up qpf to our south and southeast with the 6z run vs 0z.

I was just gunna post that, but the Rgem did bump qpf north by 20 miles or so fwiw, so I took that as a +.

It's near perfect with warm air, that's for sure.

We pray with childlike faith.

Anything that screws PSU up to Hanover is the most likely this year.

12k has similar totals in the same locations.

It has the highest elevations zeroed in for sure.

We know how the Nams nailed thermals for 1/25, maybe they're right this time. P.s. I know there's more to it than thermals (e.g. storm intensity, etc.) , but you should still get my point.

How I wish the Nam and Gfs would shove it right up the USB port of the Euro on this one.

Wow!!!!

Seems like it's been 10 years since we had outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the right spot just east of the Dateline. We'll, fwiw, the Euro weeklies say just that. I'd prefer it a touch further east, but this darn close to perfect if memory serves. It should last through the end of the month. Maybe there's a little hope for a score with this, or so I hope. With the burgeoning Niño, maybe we can see this next winter as a fixture? Here's a link to an explanation if you're interested. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_time_longitudes?base_time=202602100000&filter=no&parameter=olr

10:1 higher than Kuchera thanks to warmish temps.

Lol. Damn autocorrect. I've written snow so many times, it apparently just figures any word starting with the letter "s" is snow. Should have been stuff.

I haven't gotten a bad meal there, and I get a variety of snow from the breakfast special, steak, and salads. Only got seafood a few times, haddock and cod, I think, but it's probably not a specialty but still not bad.

I don't know their names, but I'd bet my retirement it was one of these guys.

Nam tried hard, but needs to be wound tighter.

Only about 1/2" less

The key to that post is 78 panel.