mitchnick

18z GGEM at max range of 84hrs https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=084

Looks to have this weekend's fish storm. Must be right! Lol

Qpf is well less than 1/2".

Yeah, it's the ensembles we should focus on at this point.

That all?

That should do it. Hopefully, not too much!

Yours truly. But what the Euro is showing is 1/25/00 on steriods...the illegal ones!

And that's 10:1 too.

Pretty decent consistency between 0z and 6z too.

Leaning west

Operational (top) and Eps 5H anomaly at 144hrs off 6z.

24hr snowfall mean ending 144hrs (more to come after run finished) from 6z Eps. Notably, the 6hr panel from 144hrs was the best that indicated a real explosion of snowfall and more to come.

Not there, but headed in the right when comparing 0z to 6z.

Today's wasn't easy. None of them are easy around here and that's why everything seems so damn complicated...because it is! Lol We keep our fingers crossed and hope complicated works. But that ain't saying the odds are good or bad, especially in light of other current modeling. Even the Euro's 12z run was completely different other than a trough in the SE.

The Gfs lost? No way.

Meh, the traffic. That west side of the beltway is a nightmare. I drove down 23 times between June and December for an estate I was PR. I loathe that drive.

Hard to believe it wouldn't bring it due north with this 500mb anomaly. Probably the closest match to 1/25/00 that I've seen modeled since.

Euro got everything right except for mby as usual. 12-14" of snow was it's forecast the last day. Nope. I hate the Euro because it always effs my forecast with too much snow.

Looks like a New England clobbering Heisey, as if they need another one.

I'm so over this event. Even the snow. Lol

I shoveled twice. The big problem was the plows came flying down my street twice which was nice to see. But both times they turned the area between the sidewalk and road into a concrete block of snow up to 15" high. So as if a 2 car driveway and 85' of sidewalk wasn't enough for this 67 y/o fart to shovel, I had to dig out this concrete block the width of a 2 car driveway and about 12' because it extended out into the road. I guess I should be happy I could do it at my age, but my lumbar back thinks I'm an idiot.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CCX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad

Add the Euro, Ukie, Canadian, Eps...

And it'll flip back to snow.

Nah...keep the Nam nest and shoot the mother hen!