mitchnick

2 week ensemble forecasts are as reliable and certain as 2 day Nam forecasts.

I'll say it till I turn blue, you want to be in the bullseye the first decent event(s) because it often tells you where anomalous snowfall will be for the season. Sure enough, the places that got hit several times in December keep on stacking it up.

JI ain't going anywhere.

Look at the flow. Canadian air is cutoff. We "might" be a bit BN in temps post frontal passage, but in mid-Feb that's cutting it real close in these parts. Hopefully, the Gefs is right. I don't have much hope in that but that's a better outcome than those maps imho. Moreover, the only precip of consequence on the Eps is a frontal passage around 306 hrs. You can see that on this link if you run it through the entire 12z run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2026020112&fh=24 This is why I effin' hate counting on long range ensembles as I worried in a post this morning. Among other things, they can change in a couple runs just like operational models and are only good until the next run.

Looks like Heisy's concern yesterday about the ridge bridge have merit looking at the Eps and Geps post day 10. Gefs are better if that's any consolation.

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You've been away from Minnesota too long!

For some reason, TT didn't update the possibly more important Sea Surface Temp Anomaly maps. But, they did update world 2m temps, and it looks like the Niño warmth is close to a Modoki Enso 4 and 3.4.

The overnight runs are pretty bad for "decent" snow chances considering cold temps. I just wonder if those 5H anomaly maps that look so great aren't just going to end up with a storm passing to our west with front end snow to rain, then cold and dry once the cold front passes. I say this because it's just an average and bad things can happen during an otherwise decent averaged period, we saw it advertised last year with no results, and ensemble temps by the end of the current forecasts are warming. I also see the Niña fighting hard to hang on despite it's ultimate demise. I'm not calling fail, I'm just skeptical of those ensemble 5H patterns resulting in snow. Edit: I'm referring to long range.

I think he must have pulled up 0z by accident, which had nothing.

Gfs moved a bit north from it's far southern lean at 0z.

?

<JI>Old news<JI>

I remember the old days when storms to our south moved north/northeast and precipitation blossomed as the storm moved north/northeast. Wtf is going on around here? (rhetorical...please no responses because I'll only get more infuriated!) Lol

AIFS is money. Wow!

Enjoy https://avalonpier.com/piercam/

Ukie's a nyet

Fwiw, Cfs2 is really wet in the east for March. If we can get some of that to come in before the end of the month, we'll be tired of shoveling.

Congrats Randy. Bullseye at 96hrs.

Looks like that would be the best we'd due on the Nam thanks to that GL vort pressing down. We need that to move a little faster to get more than 2".

It still has a "storm" instead of the Gfs sunny skies.

Nam's liking next week it seems. Good to know we have the 2 best models in support of our cause. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026013112&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 We just need to move that GL low along before it crushes it.

3 as the low for the closest reporting site near me. -8F, if you can believe it, at York Airport. They are known for extreme low temps as they are in a bit of a valley and their thermometer is located in a a low spot very close to a creek bed. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTHV.html

I was comparing surface maps at 120hrs on 6z Icon and Gfs.