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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Should have waited for the Euro.
  2. mitchnick
    Fwiw, 18z Eps gives us an inch and operational just shy of it.
  3. mitchnick
    Odd, wasn't it? We always get pure snow every winter. Must be another Gfs error.
  4. mitchnick
    Looked like a 3rd one was lining up at the end too.
  5. mitchnick
    Surprised no one mentioned (assuming I didn't miss it) the end of all 3 ensembles from 12z. Incredible agreement and great, great pattern. Here's the Eps with links to the other 2. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026011212&fh=384 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026011212&fh=384
  6. mitchnick
    I'll take the Canadian please. 2 shots
  7. mitchnick
    Yep. Known biases. Now, the biases change with the system.
  8. mitchnick
    Go back to sleep. You have 180 hours to rest. Lol By the way, Gefs and Geps are similar.
  9. mitchnick
    EPS really high on 2nd half of the forecast period. Top map is snowfall at 180hrs and bottom map 360hrs.
  10. mitchnick
    GfsAI has a 6-10" snow around the 23rd-24th fwiw. It's something. Lol
  11. mitchnick
    The Ukie had a very similar 5H vort on its 168hrs map. Let's see what the 0z run looks like.
  12. mitchnick
    No, Miller B I'd gladly take.
  13. mitchnick
    You left your glove!
  14. mitchnick
    I know. I was just commenting on the trough. Otoh, look at the Canadian 168hrs map.
  15. mitchnick
    They base those stats on 500mb. Even if the 500mb progs are better, the surface predictions are no better to worse imby. Right or wrong, nobody will convince me otherwise.
  16. mitchnick
    The aeard for the most impressive east coast trough goes to the GGEM. No snow for us, but an incredibly shaped trough nonetheless.
  17. mitchnick
    These trough that come in with a NE/SW shape and hook southeast aren't going to work for us. We need a west to east progression.
  18. mitchnick
    I swear the pre-2018 Euro version was better than any model now, including the current Euro.
  19. mitchnick
    Thursday the 8th, the 12z run 180hrs panel of the Icon gave us a snowstorm. This is just where we wantvit if we want snow in 180 hours. Lol
  20. mitchnick
    Euro sux. No 2 ways about it.
  21. mitchnick
    That last part is never a problem at my age.
  22. mitchnick
    Eps snowfall went poof at 18z vs last few runs. Rough hobby trying to predict the future.
  23. mitchnick
    Figures the top analog would be from the winter of 01/02...kiss of death right there.
  24. mitchnick
    Which means the Icon, Ukie, and Canadian outperformed the Euro and Gfs IF this forecast holds.
  25. mitchnick
    Dry because it hasn't gotten near the coast.
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