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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    At 39hrs, the 12k has a 1007 slp in central Mississippi, yet it just punch the sleet line thru mby like a hot knife thru butter some 1000+ miles away. Pretty crummy long wave pattern that we can't keep this storm from turning nasty.
  2. mitchnick
    There's really no coastal. Just one circle of isobars. Warm air advecting from the south must have been shut off, but I don't know how or why.
  3. mitchnick
    Really odd how the sleet makes it just past Hanover at 3pm, but then starts sinking back down the next 2 hours so we're back to snow at 5pm. But, the slp is still in WV gradually moving north. Take a look at it TSSN+.
  4. mitchnick
    I'd take it, and call it a start.
  5. mitchnick
    An inch or little less in general.
  6. mitchnick
    Ukie 18z. It is over at this point.
  7. mitchnick
    Purchase at your own risk.
  8. mitchnick
    Longer range Rap currently updating is colder and wetter. Of course, there's the range issue, but it's better than warmer/dryer.
  9. mitchnick
    That .02" worth of sleet over mby has been on the prior 2 runs, I believe, as well. Consistency is crazy.
  10. mitchnick
    Can't recall the Gfs being this persistent for this long and being horribly wrong. It was equally persistent in 1/16 and did well. Let's hope.
  11. mitchnick
    You need to get to know us better then
  12. mitchnick
    This is one for the ages. The GGEM 12z run showing snow on the ground at 240 hours. Never seen that before.
  13. mitchnick
    Icon has it too.
  14. mitchnick
    DC is a good bit north of the 546 height lines for sleet vs usual. Gotta be ultra shallow layer at that point.
  15. mitchnick
    Icon Icon drops another 3-4" this week too!
  16. mitchnick
    Don't know if it's too early for sat pics, but this has an expansive view of the Conus+. https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/large
  17. mitchnick
    I haven't, but I can't say I go out socializing very much. Lol I was at the Walmart last night and they literally did not have 1 gallon of milk left and shelves were half to completely empty.
  18. mitchnick
    Well, 9z Srefs are colder and snowier than 3z for areas at and north of Fredericksburg; southern extent tightened up a bit. We take anything that shows improvement no matter how small. Just a reminder to those who may not know, Srefs are an ensemble product and not a seperate model.
  19. mitchnick
    In case you were wondering, or not, 6z GGEM colder with lots of 10" (light orange) and 12" (dark orange) thru the metro areas. EDIT: This is 10:1 ratios. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=cmc_gdps&hi=000&hf=120&type=SN&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off
  20. mitchnick
    Feeling better with overnight runs. Starting....juuuust startin', to get that 13/14 vibe when things really did get colder or otherwise improve as crunch time approached.
  21. mitchnick
    Frankly, there's plenty of time for this to trend, one way or the other. Admittedly, it's sad to see how, in general terms, it's turning into an old fashioned "Niña north" event. For that reason, odds favor a slow trend north imho. Maybe this one will be different. I hope. Either way, I'm done for the evening.
  22. mitchnick
    It's called: Euro They should have waited, but at least they corrected it quickly.
  23. mitchnick
    Don't buy that one.
  24. mitchnick
    Nams a touch cooler at 48hrs with heights down a touch.
  25. mitchnick
    Actually, really, really close to these old eyes. Generally speaking, of course.
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