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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    End of Gem has something. I think all the models are going to be teasing thanks to the SSW, but that doesn't mean anyone in the forum will see anything. Threats are so scattered.
  2. mitchnick
    It will. It's just going to take 9 months to do it.
  3. mitchnick
    0z Euro just 2 weeks away.
  4. mitchnick
    Euro AI. Close to something pathetic.
  5. mitchnick
    Thunder up here.
  6. mitchnick
    Looking at many years of data makes me feel old. No thanks.
  7. mitchnick
    Today’s updated Euro monthly not sold on a Niño yet.
  8. mitchnick
    Today's updated Euro monthly not seeing a Niño yet.
  9. mitchnick
    18z Ukmet ensembles. I guess you can say there was an improvement over the 12z run (on top).
  10. mitchnick
    Only goes out 66hrs, but the ensembles go out to 198hrs. It's in the process of updating now.
  11. mitchnick
    It's also 30-36 hours later than the Gfs.
  12. mitchnick
    Yeah, but it's just a rainstorm with no cold air anywhere close to the MA.
  13. mitchnick
    What do the precip maps look like?
  14. mitchnick
    6 hour Gefs qpf from 18z at 144hrs on top and Eps on the bottom. Lol
  15. mitchnick
    I looked at qpf on the JMA and in the DCA/BWI area the scale increased by 2 levels (.5") and 1 level (.25") imby. Heaviest precip on the JMA is in central VA and south and they're likely rain or mix at best. Iow, JMA ain't close to what the Gfs is showing.
  16. mitchnick
    A 1 in a 19 year event. At least the odds are in our favor for once.
  17. mitchnick
    18z run ends at 144hrs, so you'll have to wait for 0z.
  18. mitchnick
    In light of the difference in placement of the Great Lakes slp, I would have thought the Euro would be further north with the southern system. Heck of a lot more space with the Euro.
  19. mitchnick
    Odds favor 18z Gfs won't look like 12z. No consistency when it comes to snow "threats" all winter.
  20. mitchnick
    You never know how they are going to shake out, so you just roll the dice with guidance consensus.
  21. mitchnick
    Everything says a legit SSW event starting 3/11. Chilly end of March into April as a result is a good bet and just maybe an anomalous late season snow somewhere in the east.
  22. mitchnick
    All the ensembles are at .75"+. Forget the operationals, especially the Gfs.
  23. mitchnick
    I don't think the existence or non-existence of that storm in any way changes my need for counseling services.
  24. mitchnick
    That's why I always said you want to be in the bullseye area with the season's first synoptic event. Not necessarily "the" bullseye, but the bullseye stripe or area.
  25. mitchnick
    A lot of Nina conditions except for SSTA won't even allow it to be categorized as an official Niña oddly.
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