mitchnick

Nat gas up +11% (with oil down a little) as of this posting. Have there been any updated cold winter forecasts from any of the respected forecasters to anyone's knowledge?

Eps forecast on that tweet was from 10/18. The 10/19 forecast loses most of the above normal mean winds and keeps winds below normal 25+ days over the 40 day forecast. Of course, it'll change again today.

If you look at the last 6 weeks of SSTA's at the link below, Enso 3.4 this year has averaged -.3C while last year's same 6 weeks come out to -.416C. It's a little cooler this year, sure. But I'd be a little more cautious about attributing anything to that difference at this point imho. Other portions of the equatorial Pacific over the period are similar in their differences for the most part too. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Thing is, and who knows how much, if any, it matters, but we are likely not going to see an official Niña (5 consecutive tri-monthlies Enso 3.4 average temps at or below -.5C) this winter if consensus modeling is correct. Not that the RONI won't be in Niña territory as well as Chuck's favorite subsurface readings, but it is something that "might" make a difference. In fact, Enso 3.4 temps are struggling to even maintain a -.5C reading over the past month+. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for I'll repeat...who knows.

Chuck's research shows a bias toward a +NAO during winter when October is negative. I'd like to know where DT gets his idea of the opposite. Don't get me wrong, I'm pulling for DT's opinion to be right. Just wondering the basis of his opinion.

BAM wx video regarding winter worth a listen imho.

They did a YouTube video on it too.

There is no warm warm forecast that guy won't embrace and no cold forecast he won't find reasons to poo-poo. Of course, that doesn't mean he won't hype cold/snow if it's in the forecast because business is business after all.

Fwiw from our friends at Accuwx.

Accuwx

October's Cansip run looks a lot like September's fwiw. Cooler up north of MD/PA line but on the dry side, except for March in ENE. 5H starts here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025100100&fh=5

Fwiw, Cansips updated October forecast for D-F looks a lot like last month's of around normal to slightly above as you head south. Temps https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2025100100&fh=4 H5 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500aMean_month&runtime=2025100100&fh=4

Might I suggest you go back there.

I really don't care about Dc, it's snowfall history or anything else with this conversation.ENSO ONLY PLEASE.

Per ice core samples at NP. Now we're even. Please, no more cc talk in this thread. Tia

We came out of a roughly 500 year mini-ice age around 1850 and it got warmer thereafter.

The regular Eps has been too warm at range since the start of August while the AI version has been better. Maybe the trend continues and maybe not. Either way, until and unless the regular Eps can prevail, I wouldn't be too concerned with that map. Otoh, even if right, we're real close to the +.50-+1.0C line, so a couple degrees F isn't a scorcher.

Since you mentioned MJO, you made me look! Lol Looks like all modeling has recently (day?) shifted back away from 4-5-6. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

That may the case, but I'm curious what the AI EPS shows since it's done better in the medium range than the Eps. That's all.

One thing to keep in mind. Not that anyone should discount the Eps, but the AI EPS has done much better with the cooler air in the last month+ as I mentioned a few pages back and that BAMWX also noted. Anyone with a Wxbell or Weathermodels subscription, do they offer long range AI EPS? Tia

Snowman19 seeing this post.

Not that it matters at this point, but the monthly temp forecast isn't that bad for the NE. It's pretty rudimentary, but you get the jist of it that the 3 month averages of +1-2C is likely closer to +1 than +2. Precip for the 3 months is within the average range for many on the east coast as well during DJF, while JFM is average for everyone.

Tony, the retired NWS Met from Philly, said that a combo of September and October temps vs. just September had a high correlation to determining above/below temps for the D-F average in Philly. He used to post at Phillywx, then when it closed, joined the same folks on Discord I believe. If not Discord, one of the other platforms. I think Chubb would know. Anyway, for mby, it correlates similarly to Phl. Unfortunately, it's a painful, long 2 month wait and you're almost into November by the time you know. By then, winter forecasts are out and some, especially north and west of Philly, may have already experienced some winter wx. But it's a useful predictor nonetheless and likely extends further north and west from Philly.

Gotta' give it to him. That's a whole lot of words for a non-forecast.