mitchnick

Loud, windy storms around 10:30-11 last night left exactly an inch. Tired of lawn mowing...as every year.

Updated Cansips just out, though dry for the winter, keeps it BN most areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. This is a link starting in November. Summer is reasonably tolerable over most of the conus too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 500mb starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 Enso starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

Updated Cansips just out, though dry for the winter, keeps it BN most areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. This is a link starting in November. Summer is reasonably tolerable over most of the conus too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 500mb starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 Enso starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

Good news. That should give Japan second thoughts before attacking Pearl Harbor again.

Not all, but my recollection, selective maybe, is that max AN temps often occur with a heat wave in June in Niñas then not so AN the rest of the summer. I guess we'll see if my memory is tainted with a wishcast.

That's cheating!

It's miserable, typical BWI weather up here 72dp. Just mowed the grass like a true idiot, but gotta' stay in shape for snow shoveling in the upcoming BIG winter!

Cfs2 pretty consistent (2+ weeks) with around normal temps to below in the east for the rest of the summer, with at or above rainfall. Basically, a continuation of what we've been seeing. This is fairly different from recent summers, so I wonder whether it's a "hint" for a change in the winter Niña winter pattern.

If we get a normal/cool, wet summer, that sure is different from any summer in years. Hopefully, that means a better winter. P.s. Sorry Voyager

Just posted in the MA forum and that's what the Cfs2 is showing. It's been showing it since late May too.

Don't know if anyone bothers to look at it much, but the Cfs2 has been advertising a non-hot summer for weeks insisting on a trough in the east. I know the Cfs2's track record has been sketchy, but it's been showing this since late May, so it deserves some credence. Add to that June temps to date, and I'd give it the benefit of the doubt at this point. This is a link to July temps and beyond. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025061218&fh=1 P.s. it's showing a wet July and August too.

There are plenty of examples. But generally speaking going back to the late 70's, progged snowstorms for the MA >24 hours out end up north. So that hasn't changed in all the years I've been following winter wx down here. 3/01 is the quintessential example.

Tell me you didn't just use 360 hr snowfall forecasts from operational models to try to prove your point. Please!

Looks like it did last year. https://solen.info/solar/index.html

I'm away from the coast and 50 miles north of my former BWI location, and they did much better in these parts in 93/94. Unfortunately, the change in location has not replaced the hair loss!

Neutral Enso looks in the bag at this point, even though I know there's no such thing in weather. Which end of neutral is the question yet to be answered. Either way, RONI will probably be on the Niña neutral end, if not weak Niña territory methinks.

Not the case for BWI at all those years unfortunately. 93/94 was the worst. Horrendous.

I agree 100% models are too snowy. I've been an unapologetic snow lover all my life and started following snow threats religiously since the 72/73 winter. Since then when modeling was first being used as a tool, they have ALWAYS been too snowy beyond 24 hours. I can remember complaining to a friend in high school (before 1976) that the model forecasts were too snowy. My point is, modeling has always been too snowy outside of 24 hours for a variety of reasons and to use recent years' snowy +24 hours modeling errors as proof of anything is a mistake imho.

Meant to ask, can you post November? I'd like to see if there were any trends as weak as it may be. Thanks.

Eps were too warm last year, so I'll take it at this point for a long lead guess.

Meant to add Cansips' Enso forecast. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025060100&fh=0

Fwiw, new Cansips temp forecast for winter looks a lot like it's forecast for last winter, maybe colder for midwest. Has a cool summer in the central US for once. Here's the link for conus temps starting in June. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025060100&fh=0

Great news! I'm sure everyone enjoyed the weather.

Key word "potential." But the numbers I posted showed no warming showing up thru 5/14. Going off those surface maps can be misleading because 1) there are several SSTA product maps out there and they are often different, albeit subtle at times, and who knows exactly which map generates those numbers I posted, and 2) you really can't make an accurate assessment off those maps of subtle changes...iow, eyeballing them doesn't work well most of the time when trying to determine numerical numbers from the CPC.

Alex may need this link. It's been pretty steady for the last 5 weeks. 16APR2025 26.2 0.6 27.3-0.2 27.5-0.2 28.2-0.3 23APR2025 25.1-0.3 27.3-0.2 27.8-0.0 28.5-0.1 30APR2025 25.2 0.1 27.3-0.2 27.8-0.1 28.6-0.0 07MAY2025 24.8-0.0 27.2-0.1 28.0 0.1 28.6-0.1 14MAY2025 24.4-0.1 27.0-0.2 27.8-0.1 28.7-0.0