mitchnick

The overnight runs are pretty bad for "decent" snow chances considering cold temps. I just wonder if those 5H anomaly maps that look so great aren't just going to end up with a storm passing to our west with front end snow to rain, then cold and dry once the cold front passes. I say this because it's just an average and bad things can happen during an otherwise decent averaged period, we saw it advertised last year with no results, and ensemble temps by the end of the current forecasts are warming. I also see the Niña fighting hard to hang on despite it's ultimate demise. I'm not calling fail, I'm just skeptical of those ensemble 5H patterns resulting in snow. Edit: I'm referring to long range.

I think he must have pulled up 0z by accident, which had nothing.

Gfs moved a bit north from it's far southern lean at 0z.

?

<JI>Old news<JI>

I remember the old days when storms to our south moved north/northeast and precipitation blossomed as the storm moved north/northeast. Wtf is going on around here? (rhetorical...please no responses because I'll only get more infuriated!) Lol

AIFS is money. Wow!

Enjoy https://avalonpier.com/piercam/

Ukie's a nyet

Fwiw, Cfs2 is really wet in the east for March. If we can get some of that to come in before the end of the month, we'll be tired of shoveling.

Congrats Randy. Bullseye at 96hrs.

Looks like that would be the best we'd due on the Nam thanks to that GL vort pressing down. We need that to move a little faster to get more than 2".

It still has a "storm" instead of the Gfs sunny skies.

Nam's liking next week it seems. Good to know we have the 2 best models in support of our cause. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026013112&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 We just need to move that GL low along before it crushes it.

3 as the low for the closest reporting site near me. -8F, if you can believe it, at York Airport. They are known for extreme low temps as they are in a bit of a valley and their thermometer is located in a a low spot very close to a creek bed. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTHV.html

I was comparing surface maps at 120hrs on 6z Icon and Gfs.

Surface maps of the 6z Gfs and 0z Euro show literally nothing. Lol

It's a great model. Can't wait for everything else to ketchup.

It's been showing up more on modeling than reality since I moved up here unfortunately.

Talk about coming out of nowhere.

It does. But I was wondering where all the cold air went. Lol

3k Nam advertising a last minute fail for eastern NC snow.

Great beach weekend at KD Hills. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.664&lat=36.013

So AI jumps north from 12z with Wednesday threat and the plays the disappearing act with the 4-6" event it had for next weekend. So much for the notion of AI being consistent.

That seems to be an AI thing. I've been noticing that on a number of both AI runs.