mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Those numbers bode well up here/you as well as in Mappy's neck of the woods, on north. Pattern you posted screams more traditional Niña results i.e. a 40N winter. Which "used to mean" we "could" still pull out an event or 2 even with February H5 looking like what you posted. We'll see.
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While understandably we are all focused on temps, I like that the weeklies are keeping us AN to normal with precip thru December. At least in the Mid Atlantic, dry is always a concern in Niñas, especially Decembers. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202511130000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511240000
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Cansips run this month for December not far off all things considered.
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Just multiply those numbers by -1 and voila!
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And it's still below normal on 12/31.
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That map is Celsius!
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Although I look at the Cfs2 for fun, I doubt it's reanalysis maps are correct!
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Coast to coast cold. Hmmmm
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Sounds like you woke up on the wrong side of the cave.
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42 years as a lawyer, and you learn to understand people's motivations. Sorry, that's my impression of your motivations, along with others.
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So there's still a thread of hope for you that we get a warm and snowless winter for you and others of your ilk to sit back and enjoy the meltdowns?
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I like the fact, however, we finally have Roundy in our corner.
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I hope it's right, but honestly didn't believe it when Snowman posted it and don't believe that one. Models just don't forecast the MJO well.
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Looks very close to the January Eps seasonal that came out a few days ago.
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I was assuming he meant 81/82 winter.
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And sadly the plane and train crashes.
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Kuchie not as kind.
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It'll be gone by 0z unfortunately.
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Just looked! Me too!!!
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That's what happens when you save my posts.
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I'm not confident on the MJO getting thru phases 7-8-1-2 as he mentions at the end of his post. Failure to get thu them would be a negative for us. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html
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We just need that blue spot/low NE of Hawaii to grow to a persistent sob!
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If February was to surprise us to the positive, I doubt we see that coming before mid-January. The best weak Nina to my recollection in the MA was 95/96. But even that had a nasty thaw in January. But odds now certainly favor a lousy February, at least south of NE.
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All comes down to what the individual members show. A couple of big hits skewing the mean to make it useless or a decent number of moderate hits with a few big dogs and dogs averaging things out.
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Great video on solar activity over the next couple weeks. Pole region predicted to get decent solar storm activity. Wonder what it does for AO/NAO prospects.
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