mitchnick

Remember. The Euro is giving us 3 month averages on each forecast map, so keep that in mind when looking at the forecasts. The trend is what you need to consider as well as actual numbers.

Remember. The Euro is giving us 3 month averages on each forecast map, so keep that in mind when looking at the forecasts. The trend is what you need to consider as well as actual numbers.

July updated Euro seasonal still going with a La Nada: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes?base_time=202507010000&nino_area=NINO3-4 Here's a link to all the forecast parameters. It has cooled temps since the last run across NA and has a normal temps in Canada vs last run lending credence to the Cansips. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Long (Months)"]}

I get it, but it's going to miss a whole lot of changes is SSTA, solar, and other variables before winter arrives, so at this range it's hard to get excited one way or the other. Then again, it's hard to get excited over anything at this range.

Roll forward didn't work last year, so we're back to "who knows."

Great news. Think of the savings on heating.

Don't know if anyone noticed or if it's been posted previously, but cyclonicwx.com now offers some decent OISST worldwide SST and SSTA graphs for the last 10 years that make for easy reference with each area broken down separately. https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/ Click on "OISST" in the banner near the top.

Almost as brutal as the 11/12 winter for those who like snow and cold.

Loud, windy storms around 10:30-11 last night left exactly an inch. Tired of lawn mowing...as every year.

Updated Cansips just out, though dry for the winter, keeps it BN most areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. This is a link starting in November. Summer is reasonably tolerable over most of the conus too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 500mb starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 Enso starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

Updated Cansips just out, though dry for the winter, keeps it BN most areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. This is a link starting in November. Summer is reasonably tolerable over most of the conus too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 500mb starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 Enso starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

Good news. That should give Japan second thoughts before attacking Pearl Harbor again.

Not all, but my recollection, selective maybe, is that max AN temps often occur with a heat wave in June in Niñas then not so AN the rest of the summer. I guess we'll see if my memory is tainted with a wishcast.

That's cheating!

It's miserable, typical BWI weather up here 72dp. Just mowed the grass like a true idiot, but gotta' stay in shape for snow shoveling in the upcoming BIG winter!