
mitchnick
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I meant PDO. Wait until you get old.
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The Cansips, like many of us posters, is pretty unstable. But I've been in lock step with 40/70 for some weeks that, imho, a warm La Nada/weak Niño is favored next winter. At least the Cansips agrees at this point. However, Enso progs before August are definitely low skill...again, like many of us posters. Lol
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April Cansips just out has a late blooming week Niño. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025040100&fh=8 Also, pretty cold winter north of Maryland starting in December. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025040100&fh=8 H5 shows lots of ridging up north too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025040100&fh=8
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April Cansips just posted. Looks like a late blossoming weak Niño. Here's the link to December. It warms after December. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=global&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025040100&fh=8 Also, fwiw, lots of ridging to the north all winter with BN temps thru winter as well.
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6z Gfs agrees
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Getting crushed here with that Special Weather Statement storm. Ughhh...hate severe wx.
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Find a new friend.
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Cfs2 has been advertising a trough in the east for weeks. Not a winter style trough, a summer one, which is much shallower but still effective in giving us regular shots of more tolerable summer temps. Cfs2 has also been pretty consistent with blocking around the Pole for December too. Here's a link to the most recent of the June 500mb anomalies with a caveat that the Cfs2 for those unfamiliar has 4 runs/day. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025031318&fh=3
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End of Gem has something. I think all the models are going to be teasing thanks to the SSW, but that doesn't mean anyone in the forum will see anything. Threats are so scattered.
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It will. It's just going to take 9 months to do it.
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Thunder up here.