mitchnick

I'll take it for early December. I think we all do OK this winter, disproportionately better the further north imho

It takes it to a hair over the mean during the first week of January. What's the big deal? More normal presented as sensational on the internet.

Come on what? It's a perfect example that the models are doing poorly with warm forecasts and second, we're all wasting our time with these digital slot machines we call models! Lol

As evidence of my statement that longer range forecasts haven't done well this year, top pick is last night's EPS forecast for Black Friday 12z and bottom forecast us from 11/15 12z.

The question is what period you're discussing. There are conflicting signs the way I see it. Even conflicts with the models' own MJO forecasts and 5H forecasts. In the end, all that be done is to look at modeling and hug whichever one suites one's opinion/gut/biases since everything remains on the table once out 7+ days. But we can't deny the medium and long range forecasts this year of warm, like last year, have not been great. So that along with a weak Niña on its way out the door by year end with noticeable western Pacific cooling, I think the urge to assume warmer LR forecasts are going to verify is risky for now. If they do verify, that will change things in my weenie mind.

If you put this EPS in motion prior to the 360hr link below, the SER is getting squashed. Also, AO region looks good. Plus, beyond this period, the Eps extended shows movement into 8. Still not high confidence on the MJO, but Cfs2, which is an extension of the Gefs, has the MJO in 8 too. So there's evidence of positive steps in December, which is better than the opposite. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025112200&fh=360

That's because liquid precip and >32F temps are a guarantee for much of the year (hence "dog bites man" weather) throughout the Conus, save the higher elevations. But I know you know this!

Nah...very, very predictable. To be followed up with a "like" emoji by Snowman.

0z Euro Thanksgiving weekend. Kuchie is a little less, but it's not like we're dealing with reality, so...

I'll be more excited if I start seeing best December since 2013.

The companion maps, Eps weekly snow anomalies, from Pivotal have it likely falling the last 2 full weeks of December ending on the 29th fwiw.

These weekly Eps snowfall anomaly maps are from Monday fwiw.

-16" I knew he was conservative, but...

Mean is livin' with the termites. I don't recall ever seeing such an extended, weak period of 10mb winds. Still decently below average into January and lower at that point than several days ago.

A link to all the "credible" model RMM forecasts are at this link fwiw: https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html