mitchnick

You posted the 15 day change map. The anomaly map looks quite a bit different for better or for worse.

Notwithstanding what the Control shows, yesterday's Eps weeklies are not really warm over that same period if you scroll through the link below. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202510260000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511030000

Just as last year, they keep getting colder as we approach the forecast period. I'll take that as a positive at this point.

Um, I would "guess" that the Eps sees what you're seeing too, so...

Lots of cooling near Japen of late.

Idk. Over the next 40 day forecast period, the Eps weeklies has winds below normal around 2/3's of the time just eyeballin' it.

Oh the Euro Control...if only it could control itself with snowfall forecasts.

0z Gfs. Getting ready to switch over in the Metros. How many times on the Gfs would the 390hrs panel, if it existed, be money?

With actual SSTA's looking like this, probably safe to say that's unlikely this winter.

PDO dropping makes sense in light of 15 day SSTA change.

Positive movements here.

And that's a positive for most in here.

Trough over or near Japan this winter is key imho. It was showing up last year a lot leading to colder temps, step 1 in snow chances. Then we roll the dice on storm tracks.

Big difference in the AO region last year to this year.

When it comes to money, those guys have itchy fingers for clicking on buy contracts. Frankly, I thought it was too early in the season for big nat gas usage even with BN temps. Guess I was wrong.