mitchnick

Strong Nina trades are killing us.

Canadian operational and ensembles are so warm because the Canadian gets the MJO wave the strongest into the Martime (warm for the east coast) phases. Gefs is not as bad as the Geps and EPS is best in that it kills the MJO wave. If the Canadian is right, we could see those temps. But I've been in the Enso thread of the main forum for almost 2 years duking it out with the warmanistas, and I can tell you that nobody relies on the Canadian MJO forecasts as they are usually somewhere between not good and bad. Here's a link to all the MJO RMM forecasts if interested. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

This is the Eps extended MJO forecast just out at 3pm. The mean is almost dead centered in the COD. Probably best case, but that's, as I said, a mean. If you look at the green dots that represent the end of the forecast, they are all over the place. So not much comfort in what exactly we should expect...except maybe the worse? Lol https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202501280000

Gefs MJO forecast ain't great and everything is moving toward it unfortunately. Weeklies yesterday were AN on the Euro site all of February and I'd be surprised if it changed today, which is out any minute.

Geps is uglier at the end of its run than Gefs.

12z AI pushes the 6th south some and not as heavy precip. Better for central MD & VA and N VA while surface temps look to cooperate. Moderate event at least in N VA and S and Central MD I think.

No, he's only 2. But you could get along with him fine I bet.

Oh yeah, none of my bookmarks or saved passwords transferred.

Just got back from getting the new phone. Another Samsung because I've always had one and refuse to try to learn an IPhone. That said, I abhore the learning curve for a new phone and getting rid of all the garbage on them. UGHHHHHHHH

If you only knew how effed up it was. Lol Going ti get new phone now. Back to AI. It’s a wet storm and lots of snow.

Yes and lots of precip from crummy maps.

850s start and stay nice thru most of storm. Lot of precip. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501280600&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502060600

Ai 6z great. Dropped my phone. Barely made this post

Ai threatening for 2/6 bigtime. Dropped my phone and need a new one so can't post more. 0z was snow to mix but 6z looks like a lot of snow. More north.

Chilly