mitchnick

Can someone who knows with certainty tell me the difference between the extended Eps and Eps weeklies, if there is a difference? Thank you. @brooklynwx99 ?

Start OK, warm to being close, then cool. Maybe some mix for part of it.

1st event looks wetter. AI

I see the first. How (bad) does the 2nd look?

234hrs Gfs is getting ready for an arctic dump into the Conus. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025012012&fh=228&dpdt=&mc=&r=na&p=850th&m=gfs

Same idea as the AI, but a little wetter and 12hrs later. Close enough.

We have cold and precip on Monday plus, obviously, it's sooner so less opportunity to fail. I'd really like to see this one juice up in case #2 fails.

You missed a spot.

Looks like overrunning because the precip hits an east-west wall of -4C or less 850's.

@Heisy 6z AI looks to be getting more interested on Monday/Tuesday next week. Still light precip with suppression of heavier stuff. But I think that's not far from a moderate event. 30/31st looks a little warm but may end as snow. This still has big upside potential imho if we get the temps to cooperate as the AI is showing a strong bowling ball vort moving east with redevelopment off the coast. Fingers crossed. EDIT: Big cold dump from Canada at the end of the run.

I'll check. Ended at 6.5" measuring on the sidewalk but the other poster in Hanover measured 7".

They do, but we don't get into the meat of the precip. Actually, last night's Gfs runs, as opposed to the Euro, aren't really that different from what the AI is showing, which is a bit surprising to me.

.35 would have been 20:1, so 18 or 19:1 without doing the math.

Time sensitive. Check out the swirling streamers up near Buffalo off the lake. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=BUF-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

York Airport down to -1 at 4am reading! https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTHV.html Lol on that one.