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mitchnick

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    Hanover, PA

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  1. mitchnick
    82/83 was east based too. It holds the record for max RONI SSTA at 2.4 in 12/82 & 1/83. We're close to that right now. Can't throw out that one. We'll be fighting temps all winter. That's a guarantee, but that's nothing new for the MA. Though December might yield a light fluke, we're probably waiting for 1_15 or later imho.
  2. mitchnick
    I recommend this brand.
  3. mitchnick
    Don't worry, they still look the same.
  4. mitchnick
    Wow! 12" in 1969. We had 5" that ended as zr just south of BWI. But it was great nonetheless. I remember it well. (at my age, remembering 57 years ago is easy....it's 57 minutes ago that's the problem )
  5. mitchnick
    I'll be watching your back, you can be certain of it!
  6. mitchnick
    Gawx did research on early season warmings and found the only closest matches to this year were 16/17, 79/80 & 09/10, with the last 2 the only Niños. So it may be indicative of future favorable warmings, but that's weenie speculation at this point.
  7. mitchnick
    Idk. 82 was east based and great for the MA. lol
  8. mitchnick
    It's not worth arguing about as we'll know in a couple months. It just seems that there's this consensus forecast to disregard the strongest Niño not causing default Niño conditions. And there's an old saying, when everyone thinks alike, people aren't thinking enough.
  9. mitchnick
    If this is the strongest Niño we know of, wouldn't it increase the odds of a "default Niño " actually occurring as depicted on seasonal modeling? I'm not saying I know that answer, but it seems logical.
  10. mitchnick
    It does show a quick recovery, but stay tuned because 10 days ago this warming wasn't even showing up on the Euro. In fact, it showed a strengthening PV.
  11. mitchnick
    JB post courtesy MJO812 in El Nino thread.
  12. mitchnick
  13. mitchnick
    Looks like you were on the wrong side of the stationary front all month.
  14. mitchnick
    He might be looking at the Cfs2 for that December comment. It's been coming in for the past week AN, but not by a whole lot. Idk. We'd have to get pretty lucky for December to deliver anything of consequence. Otoh, the exception is 12/82 when BWI was +3.4 and still had a little over 7" thanks to a 1/2" event and a Sunday night surprise of almost 7".
  15. mitchnick
    As always, if it doesn't happen on or around the time as proged, we may be in trouble. Fwiw, today’s weeklies establish the trough around the GOA the first week of November and holds it through the last week. We won't have long to wait. P.s. Today's weeklies put a nice hit on the PV too. This has been advertised for a few days now. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202610190000
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