mitchnick

It's a step in the right direction, which seems to be the case on all modeling so far today. Some have made substantial changes with others only minor, but they all seem to be in the right direction. If we keep going ghru the day and night, we may just have to get WxUSAF to crawl out of bed and change the thread title to PDIII! lol

I didn't pay attention to the Ukie's last 2 runs, but you can see how it really beefed up qpf to our south and southeast with the 6z run vs 0z.

I was just gunna post that, but the Rgem did bump qpf north by 20 miles or so fwiw, so I took that as a +.

It's near perfect with warm air, that's for sure.

We pray with childlike faith.

Anything that screws PSU up to Hanover is the most likely this year.

12k has similar totals in the same locations.

It has the highest elevations zeroed in for sure.

We know how the Nams nailed thermals for 1/25, maybe they're right this time. P.s. I know there's more to it than thermals (e.g. storm intensity, etc.) , but you should still get my point.

How I wish the Nam and Gfs would shove it right up the USB port of the Euro on this one.

Wow!!!!

Seems like it's been 10 years since we had outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the right spot just east of the Dateline. We'll, fwiw, the Euro weeklies say just that. I'd prefer it a touch further east, but this darn close to perfect if memory serves. It should last through the end of the month. Maybe there's a little hope for a score with this, or so I hope. With the burgeoning Niño, maybe we can see this next winter as a fixture? Here's a link to an explanation if you're interested. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_time_longitudes?base_time=202602100000&filter=no&parameter=olr

10:1 higher than Kuchera thanks to warmish temps.