mitchnick

But that also had the -PDO from hell (which I think you're referring to) that just killed any chance. It could happen again, but odds don't favor that happening again imho.

I recall Snowman posting the BOMM at +3-3.25C in 2023 and only broke +2C for 1 trimonthly. Location of the best forcing will be what makes or breaks winter in the east this year.

Is it me, or are these mets hyping this Niño acting like they've never seen one before? I mean, there's going to be a mod or strong Niño. So what...we just had one a few years ago and a 3rd one in 10 years. You'd think it was another Pinatubo event by their tone.

Nailed me. Still raining. Has to be closed to an inch or more with lots of T&L.

Don't fret the AN temps. April 2002 had a similar period with temps in the 90's if I recall. All I remember is that it was particularly miserable thanks to poison ivy I was enjoying at the time. Ughhh

Bias corrected numbers found here are around .5C cooler. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

Weekly SSTA (just updated) for Enso 3.4 and 4 have been stuck at +.2C and +.6C respectively for the past 3 weeks. Looking forward to a month from now since we're still in a Niña hangover of sorts that should be wiped out by then. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

The Bias Corrected version is "usually" closer to reality.

Just in case anyone was wondering why the hypsters haven't talked about the SOI. Lol

Seems strange to me that the western equarltorial Pacific has cooled over the last 7 days west of the dateline. Any ideas? The wwb is to last around 10 days per Cfs2 starting around the 17th. But I expected it to be warming west of the dateline. The cooling is on 2 different maps, though more apparenton one than the other.

Mid Atlantic (DCA up to PHL at least) had a decent 6"+ storm in December, 1982 that was supposed to stay south in VA. Great Sunday night surprise as I remember it well. When I asked JB about it when he was still at Accuwx, he said he was jumping up and down saying it would come north but other forecasters overruled him.

15/16 was the last strong Niño, which is why I used it. But your observation supports the idea that you need a lot of things to go right to get a strong Niño and a warm start helps a lot.

Comparing this year to 4/1/15, 2015 was warmer in 3, 3.4 and 4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for But after the pending wwb, there's nothing in site like it on the Cfs2 thru the end of June. I don't know about other models however.

Latest SSTA in 3.4 is +.2C as of 4/1. Gotta have a lot of things go right for those +2C tri-monthlies, though there is plenty of time if they do. In the meantime, the trades are progged to hold east of the dateline through the 15th-17th of the month.

The usual suspects are all trying to outdo one another for clicks. Nobody knows with certainty what ssta will look like after the wwb, which is what counts, along with what comes after. Enso predictions have a way of humbling the honest forecasters imho.