TheDreamTraveler

Some rain anywhere in the eastern US would be nice. The US had its driest October since 1895 in some places. Hopefully this thing recurves north.

lol 12z GFS has that hurricane in the Caribbean bottoming out to 915mb on Nov 16th. Definitely seems like there's a signal for something to develop though but that's still 6 days or so before it shows anything actually developing.

12z GFS is pretty wild. Has at least 4 systems develop through the entire run and possibly a 5th storm lol

It's possible we get to our S named storm in the next week or two. Maybe the models really weren't wrong about this potentially being hyperactive. Obviously depends if all 3 areas develop but still.

And now the global operational 0z GFS just drops the hurricane in the Caribbean completely lol

I thought so too. That Hazel graphic really shows how intense and unique of a storm it was. You rarely get a strong hurricane like that that late in the season barreling up the whole east coast with winds that extreme that far inland and north. Though it transitioning also helped the wind speeds too.

This season has been one of the weirdest ones I can think of. So many things have seemed out of sync. From the formation of Beryl in late June becoming the earliest cat 5 on record and the strongest storm that far east in the Atlantic that early in the season beating many records. And it went through the graveyard in early July as a category 5. Then things became very quiet. 8/20 through 9/23 which is the climatological peak of the season was the quietest stretch of ACE accumulation since 1994 which is to this day one of the quietest seasons recorded. Then everything that happened with the African monsoon ITCZ during August/September breaking a record for being so far north which was cutting off tropical waves so they could not develop. Now we're in October and suddenly the Atlantic thinks it's early September with three hurricanes spinning at once a few days ago with 2 at the same time both breaking records at the same time being the most powerful hurricanes that far east in October. And I guess we can include how bizarre Milton's track was. Either way it's been a very strange season for sure.

Seeing this thing still as a category 5 when we're this close to landfall is very concerning. I know it's going to weaken but it really is going to be a nail biter seeing how much it weakens. Intensity forecasts have always been the hardest thing about hurricanes. Forecasting track has gotten exceptionally well over the past 2 decades but intensity still has a lot to work on.

Rita was 895mb in the Gulf and is currently the strongest recorded for that area

Yep noticed that too. It's been offline the past 10-15 minutes. It's been a while since a hurricane was forecast to take a direct hit on a city this populated.

Bigger hurricanes aren't always more immune to negative environmental factors. Sometimes it can be a detriment to their health allowing them to suck in more dry air and experience shear just due to how big they are. Smaller hurricanes can sometimes weasel their ways into smaller more favorable pocketed environments if they're lucky enough.

The GFS is just insistent on Milton striking a bit north of Tampa. Every run has had it either north or striking directly so far.

The west coast of Florida just can't catch a break the past 3 years with Ian, Idalia, Helene and now Milton. Though Idalia was definitely a lot weaker than people originally thought at landfall at least. I wouldn't bank on any sure intensity ideas until we're a day or two from landfall. Hurricane intensity is the hardest part of forecasting a hurricane.

Of course they're only going to go to 155mph lol. Would be pretty wild to see two category 5's this year. Beryl being the earliest that far east and Kirk being the strongest this far east this late in the season

The GFS sure seems adamant on another hurricane landfalling in the same location as Helene multiple runs in a row. Would be absolutely awful if it ends up anywhere close to there. Then take into account Idalia hitting near that same area last year? Crazy.