cstrunk

Just had a downpour IMBY in Longview, TX. Now I have sunshine. If this line in E/SE TX can push east we should see more clearing...

I agree, DFW is definitely in a precarious position this afternoon. Maybe I should have clarified, I have more of a IMBY bias here in Longview. I do think there is a greater threat in an area bounded by DFW, Sulpher Springs TX, Pauls Valley OK, and McAlester OK. SE TX may also be interesting. Not sure that the greater threat will extend eastwards towards NW LA as per SPC. Not to say there won't be severe storms farther east, as I'm sure there will be. As always, I'm sure this could/will change...

Yeah, all of the clouds are going to put a damper on things, IMO. Already seeing junk showers from I-35 east. Need that to move out and see some sun ASAP.

Had a couple pieces of graupel fall from the sky in Longview this morning. Air temp is 46F.

Yeah it was. A good 20+ minutes of 50-60 mph gusts here. Knocked over the next door neighbor's fence. Also heard a tree fall a block north and partially land on a house, luckily it wasn't directly on it.

Day 3 Slight Risk for NE TX, N LA, S AR, and W MS. Mentions after dark tornadic potential with strengthening LLJ.

Tornado watch for SE NE, southern IA, and northern MO. Initiation already occurring in SE NE and extreme SW IA in the form of discrete cells.

The 15z HRRR has a pretty ridiculous updraft helicity track from SW IA through Des Moines.

An area between my hometown of Shenandoah, IA and Omaha, NE would be a good spot to chase this afternoon from the hilltops. Monitoring a potential severe threat here in NE TX as well. HRRR shows some activity here that could get interesting.

Models are showing a pretty good severe/tornado threat this afternoon/evening in extreme SE New Mexico and SW Texas.

Measured another 2.5" at my house from yesterday's and last night's rain. My yard is a bit swampy.

I had another 0.7" Wednesday during the day, putting my 3 day total at about 8". The golf course next to my office had a wee bit of water in it.

I measured 4.1" of rain from yesterday through 7 AM this morning. Combined with 3.2" from earlier this week puts me at 7.3" for the week.

I had 2.6" of rain IMBY earlier this morning. More heavy rain expected through Wednesday. *Update: 3.2" total for the day through 7 pm.

North Central TX might see some interesting storms later this afternoon.

Maybe we'll get lucky but it sounds like we'll just get lots of cold rain...

So much junk... moderate risk what?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0018.html Largest mesoscale discussion ever? LOL

Nothing staying or getting very organized in Texas, still.

I'm keeping an eye on the strengthening showers in the Tyler, TX area in the warm sector to see if they can become organized.

Clouds are socked in pretty good now across the TX/LA threat region...

Already have breaks in the low level clouds at my location in Longview, TX. Will be something to watch - if we can get temperatures higher than forecast it will up the ante a bit.

It seems like the biggest discrete supercell tornado threat this afternoon will be initially near I-35 from central TX northward into Oklahoma. We may get a cell or two a bit further east in TX but it's much more conditional. More concerning is the latest HRRR which show a nasty QLCS moving through NE TX, while a string of cells forms ahead of the line near the TX-LA border. Those could be our dangerous nocturnal tornado producers, aside from the QLCS itself. It wouldn't surprise me if a bunch of people start crying bust by 7-8 pm and the main show begins shortly thereafter.

Yeah I think this is worth highlighting - we'll have at least a handful of tornado reports but like always in this region, storm mode is king, and will be the difference in determining if this is a memorable vs. a unremarkable event.

The GFS has been advertising some kind of ice/sleet/snow event for western/central/northeast TX in the January 15-17th range mid-late next week.