cstrunk

Got a bit of a surprise line of storms in NE TX late Saturday night. It was falling apart by the time it made it to my house (imagine that), but I still ended up with about 0.45" rain. A lot of rain is forecast over the next few days for much of northern Texas and southern Oklahoma. I'm right on the edge of it - where storms will either stay just west and north of me or will fall apart as they make it here. But several models today showed 2-3"+ for Longview so we shall see, it will be close.

The track shifting east really eased the impacts in Longview. 35 mph gusts and only 0.40" of rain at my house. Glad I ended up with anything at all, 10 miles west of here they got zilch. 10 miles east of here they got over an inch and much more if you keep going.

Looks like the west trend of Laura's track has halted and the trend is starting slightly nudge back east. Landfall still expected around the TX/LA border, give or take. Still have a day or a little more to some slight changes but the track seems pretty consistent. If anything I wouldn't be surprised to see it end up east of the latest NHC track, depending on the intensity tomorrow. It's a weird feeling here for me in Longview, I was excited for the prospects of some severe weather but not necessarily prepared for the center of a hurricane to pass over us. We're in a Tropical Storm Warning now, but I'll be surprised if we have much, if any sustained wind over 40 mph. In fact, the forecast from NWS Shreveport is saying 20-30 mph winds with gusts to 45 mph. That seems more like a spring day in the plains, to me. (Except 45 mph gusts here could cause a few more power issues with falling limbs and such.) Any more east shifting with the track is also going to start to reduce the predicted 2-4" of rain totals at my location too. As of now I would be very thrilled with 2", but I'm starting to think it may end up more like 1" generally. Of course it will depend on where Laura's squalls end up and where the rainfall bands set up. But being on the west side is usually not the place for a ton of rain or wind.

Looks like it's about to get interesting around here with Laura popping into the GoM now...

Obviously not a lot to talk about. It's been dry here for a couple of weeks. Some area have been lucky. SW AR had 4"-8" the other day. The MCS's that have tried to build toward my area of the I-20 corridor in East Texas have fizzled. Finally seeing 100 degree temps. Cold front on Sunday/Monday looks to bump temps back into the low 90's with only a very slight chance of rain. Needless to say I've begun watering my lawn!

No rain last week and nothing in the forecast for this week. The real summer has finally arrived. Highs forecast in the upper 90's. Guess it's time to break out the sprinkler!

Storms later yesterday morning ahead of a July 31 cold front (say what??) brought about 1.05" of rain in about 30 minutes. Chances of rain for the next week look pretty slim with drier air moving into the region.

A couple showers last week added up to about 0.25" but yesterday I cashed in on 0.55" from a strong shower produced by the enhanced sea breeze from one of Hanna's outer bands. Another wave is headed this way this afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday (mostly overnight) I finally cashed in. I measured 3.25" in my rain gauge. Pretty crazy how wet we have been over the last week or so. I'm glad I finally got a really good rain since the Texas furnace is about to start crankin'.

Continuing the trend of getting just enough rain, but missing out on much bigger amounts. I got about 0.1" Friday evening and 0.75" early this morning. About 10 miles away NWS Shreveport noted a measurement of 6.43" from just this morning...

I ended up getting 0.7" in my rain gauge yesterday evening. Just narrowly missed much heavier downpours that would have given me double the amount or more, but I'll take it! The NWS forecast seems much more optimistic than the QPF predicted by WPC over the next few days. We have 40-50% rain chances each day through Friday, and then 30% chances Saturday and Sunday. WPC's graphics show dry conditions Friday-Sunday.

The DFW metro sure has been lucky with getting some really nice rains the last few days. Not so lucky here in Longview - yet. Chances of rain continue through the weekend.

I got lucky on a few days ago and picked up 0.35" at my house, enough to avoid watering. The forecast for the next week looks favorable for rain as well. We drove to Fort Worth last night as the MCS was rolling in, it blew our Toyota around pretty good on 635.

Looks like the first real week of heat will be arriving in Texas next week with mid-90's in the forecast and dry conditions. We've been doing pretty well with receiving rain this spring in east Texas... but it looks like I'll have to start watering my lawn next week.

Ended up getting ~40-45 mph gusts, a bit of pea-size hail, and 2.2" of rain from the complex that moved through my backyard.

Now 3 tornado warned storms near the red river.

SBCAPE is 2500+ in the area SE of Dallas, but dewpoints are still in the low-60's while surface temperatures are in the low-mid-80's. 60-75 knots effective bulk shear might be too much.

I was wrong about what I thought was the cumulus field on satellite earlier. There is an actual cumulus field deepening on the south side of DFW. I think initial storm development in TX may be just southeast of Dallas. SPC Mesoanalysis shows 2000+ SBCAPE, 200+ ESRH, 60+ knots effective bulk shear, and low 60's dewpoints in this area.

The southern threat area from that model runs lines up with the deepening cumulus field east of DFW. Dewpoints are still struggling, with many locations stuck in the upper 50's.

I agree the biggest threat will be right along the warm front near the Red River towards Texarkana. Storms south of there seem to struggle on the latest HRRR runs.

Yeah, not sure it will be enough to produce a big tornado threat. There's still a little bit of time for the low-60's dewpoints to head north. There are some readings around 60 in the Texarkana area, but plenty of other mid-upper-50's as well. The latest HRRR runs still show mid-60's to Longview this afternoon, but those don't make it any farther north. The cells south of the Red River don't look as robust as they did in earlier runs, either.

With the radar presentation and history of the storm I'm not sure why it's not Tornado warned.

Looks like the updraft on the southern storm attempt just got choked off and has weakened... we'll see if it continues to try to break the cap.

Clouds and storms in E/SE TX are going to spoil the threat for NE TX as well it seems.

Tornado warned storms in East Texas are in an area of 400-600 ESRH according to SPC Mesoanalysis...