timnc910
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Everything posted by timnc910
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Back to suppression city for the NAM. Some frozen precip for the gulf coast other than that its a snooze fest.
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I understand everyone's frustrations about not being in the epicenter of the upcoming storm. Living in Southeastern North Carolina i was this happen to us all the time. Models come in showing a good hit then boom the inevitable NW trend or warm nose comes along. It has been many many years since Southeastern North Carolina has seen a decent winter storm.
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Moderate snow and sleet here in Maple Hill
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i was just looking at the radar and the precip field already looks more expansive than the hrrr has initialized at. although it isn't much but it will be nice to see snow falling here in se nc.
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Some of the banter post in the discussion thread is just ridiculous. i go in there to get reliable information about the upcoming pattern and possible storms. However i have to sort through numerous of unrelated post than the topic at hand. All this cliff diving between each model suite itself is quite appalling. For example 0z could be showing a great setup and everyone is pumped up and talking about certain dates that could potentially produce storms. then 6z could show and unfavorable set up and everyone is going crazy filling the discussion with pointless post screaming torch fest and we never can get a good set up etc. Again we are in the south east. I myself want to get wintry weather as bad as any other person on this board but if it doesn't happen i don't go in the discussion thread with my self pity ranting about why each model suit wasn't as favorable as the other.
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18z is back to reality. Brings back the trough instead of the ridge that 12z was showing
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that is the upper level part of this storm. that is what is suppose to swing through with the second wave of precip. Although models have trended less with the precip from this feature as it swings through.
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Out to hour 9 on the nam. the high pressure is 2 mb stronger and further east.
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looking at current radar the returns out ahead of the system are moving in a southeastern fashion. It will be interesting to see if that leads to a more suppressed track than being modeled.
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could the multiple areas of high pressure that is now being model( which i believe is what people refer to banana high) be giving the models trouble right now?
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It looks like the wave dropping down on the back side is developing better off the coast on the 0z
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At hour 90 the low is a good bit further off the coast than the 18z run
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out to 102 of the fv3 gfs the snow fall mean has shifted south a good bit. if you go back and compare the previous runs the southern trend that Wow pointed out is clearly noticeable
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Tonights 0z runs should be interesting to say the least. The trend on a couple of the models recently have been a more southern track and a stronger cold push. Either way this is great chasing material.
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So much panic of the first winter storm of the season and it isn't even winter yet. Let the short range models get into range and they will iron out the small details that will make it or break it for this storm. The components of this storm is just now getting close to the continental united states. let the models get a better sampling of the two waves out west and get a better handle on how the cad is going to materialize before going straight off the cliff. We still have all winter in front of us just wait and be patient.
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18z icon appears to becoming in a bit less amped then the 12z runs. The last few runs of the icon snowfall mean has shifted south. Lets see where it ends up this go around.
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From what i can tell it was 1 to 3 inches give or take. Lesser amounts closer to the coast.
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she has really been getting better organized over the next few hours. alot of models have florence strengthening a little before landfall. with recent ir and visible loops i don't see why it couldn't happen
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im at 12' above that gauge
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https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=mhx&gage=chin7 this is the forecasted river level which is within a mile of my house the record level was when floyd hit
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This will be a storm people remember for ever i'm afraid. With the coast being more populated than in the past with other storms. the chance of seeing bigger destruction than the storms of the past is pretty high.
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what is alarming is Florence hasn't even moved into the most favorable conditions yet
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18z continues with the stall but no it has it sitting over eastern nc instead of the outerbanks. looks like the gfs is starting to fall in line with other guidance. it has a history playing catching in this time frame. If everything verifies as it stands now its going to be a wild ride for alot of nc.
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gfs is back to a landfall around mhx. its looks to have took its meds again and coming in better agreement with the other model suites.
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18z gfs coming sw of the 12z run lets see where it goes from here
