Heisy

Lookin at the cmc it cuts inland. Idk about temps until SV comes out, probably heavy hitter far Inland.

The issue with this one if it happens will be BL temps depends how it cranks though idk. Not much HP to north

00z cmc is a full blown nor’easter on the black and white maps....I’ll post

NWS just put up a new radar?

I would post them but AM doesn’t let me add files that are screen shotted, file is too big. You can’t copy paste from stormvistas site it just gives you a blank map lol

Exactly. That’s plenty of room and phase interaction already occurrjng

Stormvista subscription myself

18z euro has the northern branch diving farther south at 90 hours. Looks really good

How’s it look through 115 hours or so. Curious if any ensembles developed a low off the coast

I mean the gfs is basically a cold front near Christmas. Not saying that’s what it’ll be but that’s why it looks like that

Oh my bad you’re right...I’m used to just the basic old pos GFS lol. They don’t run the new gfs during happy hour what else can I do?!

I’m not? OP 18z gfs. It grazes the cape and extreme SE MA between hours 99-111

Strip of light blue (4-6”)on stormvista maps SE Ma. That has to be encouraging considering model bias.

The fast flow behind it makes it tough for this thing to tuck in. Close call. If anything it sets up a better Christmas period imo

18z GFS has a nice neg tilt at 84 hours...

I’ve been out of loop. If you had told me Concord (the place I chased the early December storm) was going to almost double me down in Lewisburg pa last night I would have laughed at you. That is incredible!

Lewisburg PA...i think got in the edge of some of that subsidence . I got around 14 (I never measure for some reason) and not trying to complain because I had a good time, but...Relatively horrific, considering just 45 minute drive to be has reports of 24. Walt told me to go to BGM too. Idk why I didn’t setup farther N. Probably regret it for a long time lol. Right when that mega band was setting up the snow almost shutoff here momentarily I could see low clouds moving in the sky and it was like really pelty badly formed snowflakes falling. Lasted for at least an hour. It did pick up again though on the back end, but I just never saw those incredible rates I was chasing for. actually at around 2:30 I contemplated making the trip up to pa ny border. I had around 2-3 inches at the time, I literally actually got in my car with my bags ready to try it, but decided to play it safe. Turns out there was a huge pileup on i80 anyway. Probably was a good decision

Tip let me ask you a question wrt something I’m noticing...excuse my lack of Met vocabulary, but the early December storm in NE was from a shortwave that kind of got pinched off from the flow and then “rounded the corner”...the storm last night had cold air in place because of Monday’s event which did the same thing. Still way too far out and the major players could be totally different, but I wonder if this wave length pattern could be more prone to repeat itself. We would kind of benefit from something similar happening because as you said we’d see that quasi 50/50. Idk just something I’m noticing, probably just random

JMA (just showing As an example) would def be how we would want Christmas to unfold. Shortwave scoots ahead and dampens heights and the remaining energy about to head up coast

This idea is hanging around a lot of the OPs/ensembles for that time frame. Obviously D 10 though If only we could blend the cmc and euro Christmas shortwave setup...basically 3 time periods to watch right now, hopefully as we get closer details look better and better

Trust me I feel like jumping off a cliff right now. To miss this when I had perfect opportunity to go anywhere reasonable distance from Philly. Sucks.

I mean yeah but that’s only because the trough is really digging southward. It will head east. I think we’ll some interesting things events pop up on the models soon between Xmas and nye. After that idk.

Yep. I was only 8, but I have great memories of that storm. I’m just a little upset because on my last 4 chases I setup shop in the wrong spot. Nemo is the one that pisses me off the most. Did will in C Ma, but that snow in CT was off the chains.

I got 14-16” or so in Lewisburg PA and that’s with the mega band setting up shop to my north. The totals out there thru NY will be crazy

I think after the Christmas trough there will be a brief opportunity. I just think the heights look too high in 50/50 location for the Christmas storm even if it does kind of dive down south and Negative tilt. Gfs para nailed today’s storm pretty well imo. A lot better than the OP. I might start giving it more serious look these days...