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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Gotcha, thanks!
  2. Heisy
    I may consider making my first chase up to Buffalo region for this one. I’ve considered it a few times this year but there’s been larger storms to chase all over NE. One big synoptic+Les snow event to chase and this winter would be epic for me!
  3. Heisy
    Better angle for the precip shield for round 2 so far, well see
  4. Heisy
    This is the period after the pesky ULL finally moves off towards 50/50 region. The issue is lack of a pna ridge so the the trough axis isn’t great. Looks messy at this range but far out so well see. Models differ on handling of the ULL
  5. Heisy
    Yeah looking at individuals they’re all over the place. It’s a balancing act between favoring thurs vs fri and some even bring Friday N causing mixing issues.
  6. Heisy
    Yep, for the OP; The arrow is our confluence and the zigzag is the ridging. 18z vs 12z for comparison. Notice the difference in the height lines as Bob noted. We need that ULL to be farther East
  7. Heisy
    I mentioned this in AM but my bet is one of the waves trends weaker and the other stronger. Like I’ve been saying our best bet imo is Friday. Has a better jet structure and more H7 juice. 18z gfs is best case scenario right now. I hope euro shows something similar this evening. This is a really good setup for mid Atlantic, could be some sneaky high totals in S de and S NJ too with some weak coastal enhancement. Well see. Obviously most favorable spot is west of city. Give me 5” of powder and I’m happy
  8. Heisy
    Models seem to be all disagreeing on the progression of the ULL and any undercutting energy. We’re going to see a lot of different scenarios in the medium range
  9. Heisy
    Gotta get that ULL over the lakes farther south and east for the Day 6 event on the gfs or you’ll just blast the mid levels
  10. Heisy
    You can see the enhanced interaction here post Thursday
  11. Heisy
    Also here is the last frame. There is decent moisture and more NS interaction at the end here so there would have been more If run extended imo
  12. Heisy
  13. Heisy
    6z euro farther south. It also looks like a bigger hit was on deck for Friday. More stream interaction
  14. Heisy
    Icon being somewhat similar to the euro is a great sign. Model is seriously underrated would love to see verification stats. ATM I would rather be in N VA and Md compared to me up in Philly for this one.
  15. Heisy
    It’s always the winters that people think will suck that end up awesome
  16. Heisy
    Crazy thing about that EPS run is I swear it looks like day 6/7 that ULL was in a prime spot for an arctic front. This is the event the 12z GFS had...
  17. Heisy
    That was gonna be a sweet hit.
  18. Heisy
    These are the types you guys do really well with. I’m almost positive I’ll be sitting jealous in Philly looking south at the radar
  19. Heisy
    East but not far. I measured on my deck so could be more on the leftover snow. Maxwell Street off of welsh and dewees
  20. Heisy
    Any hitters on the EPS from the coastal day7 arctic front as the ULL finally heads east?
  21. Heisy
    Little over 2” NE Philly
  22. Heisy
    Think for the city it was snow to sleet http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/12-Jan-96.html
  23. Heisy
    Craziest part of the euro is the block reforming at the end of the run.
  24. Heisy
    Today has been a top 3 weenie day of my life. There is literally 3 legit threats of snow, it’s snowing out, and it has only been a week since a MECS. Besides the waa and first coastal that second coastal on the gfs and euro day 7 is very intriguing. Just a nutty pattern. It could all fall apart but I don’t think it will. This block is legit.
  25. Heisy
    Lol and that isn’t even the main batch that’s the appetizer event that’s been showing up
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