Heisy

12z euro is a hit for tonight, in line with other models now. Hell yea

It’s amazing how different it can be up here near Ne airport vs center city. Last event Sunday was like a perfect climo example. I literally drive across the boulevard and snow was on the roads and progressively got deeper

Exactly. I don’t like the look here either.

Euro? Lol I bet it ticks slightly N again. Euro tends to make tiny ticks each run instead of larger ones. It’ll prob look like 6z eps. i think it’ll be warm like gfs for next week

Radar looks good. That stream near KY is main batch and that’s aimed right at us

My bad I wasn’t in the other thread so wasn’t paying attention, sorry fellas

Those meso bands almost always setup farther N than progged so we’re in a good spot.

Sorry I’ll see myself out. Wasn’t paying attention to the 10-12 thread. Didn’t mean to rub salt in the wounds

Yeah I did. Trust me I want us both to score more than anyone. The HP is no joke so it’ll depend on the confluence and how strong the vort is. It’s fun to look at for now but I personally don’t buy it. Maybe thump to sleet/ice best case? don’t rip me too much just giving my .000002 cents. I feel all your pain honestly. Tbh though we all know in March or next winter you guys will get a HECS. Seems boom or bust anymore

I’d be careful with the para and cmc right now. I’m not saying sleet/ice won’t be an issue next week, but idk this vort pass screams bgm to Boston to me. That’s just me though not trying to be a Debbie downer

I think Philly ends up with around a little Over 3” but there’s an outside shot at 5-6. Of course there’s also a shot at 1-2 lol

Yea down SNJ towards shore could have snow growth issues. Hopefully we can hit 12:1 at times

Just reading HM sounds about right. We’ll probably get 10-13:1, but he has noted the increased LLJ strength, while increasing precip, could hurt ratios.

Sweet, and that’s just 10:1

Supposedly the EPS/control is getting an upgrade this week. stormvista advertising on the homepage fyi

Awaiting snow maps but that might have 6” just west of the city, tombo says it’s .5, so might be 4-7” with ratios?

I know people down south hate em for good reason, but I wouldn’t mind a legit ice storm. We never get them in Philly anymore. Unless it’s sleet, we’re really good at that.

Models are trending slower to shift the tpv out, as psu noted this years trend is your friend for next week:

For the cmc the black and white maps roll out around 11 thru day 6, and then stormvista starts rolling pretty quick after that

18z eps had less ridging vs 12z at 144 hours. We have a sprawling 1044hp to work with. Just need the confluence to trend better from the departing ULL

The ULL tpv didn’t phase with any stj energy. Before, models were bringing the tpv farther southeast with the weekend system. Now it kind of scoots more ENE. btw, 18z eps looked slightly better at 144 for next weeks system which I think is our best and last shot at a significant winter storm for a while. It’s technically the event I’ve been talking about for over a week. Ralph remembers me mentioning the heisy. Well I said it’d be the event when the AO breaks down and the tpv moves into 50/50 position, well...

Para is about 2" for the city

What looked like an extremely promising period for the city is turning to crud pretty fast. Going to be hard to get all frozen with these events down the line unless something changes fast. We never do "easy" well anyway. The event last week kind of came out of nowhere after a few busts fi you recall. Maybe thatll happen again lol

Look similar? obv no two every the same but just saying pattern both have that tpv in a similar location. There are differences though

Exactly, pretty sure that’s illegal. Especially at that amount? I bet he gave the money to someone else to make the bet but still...