Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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Dec (Edit: Jan1/..2 ) multi-faceted ptype mess potential...
Heisy replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Wait till you see the cmc. Farther south HP It doesn’t have precip north of md line at 120 hrs -
Para didn’t really lose it, it was just rain instead lol
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Just a general question. Why arent the height lines in the AO region more curved like they are in the alaska trough. I know means are smoothed out I’m just worried we’d see more of the same current pattern
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Para gfs once again has a strong follow up wave and develops a snowstorm out of it
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Majority of winter? Huh? It’s not even NYE. We have 3 full months technically with how March is these days. In fact I’d venture to say March is the best winter month of the season lately at least down here in Philly. Yeah you can subtract a week - 12 days in January right now based on the look currently, but we’re just getting started.
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There’s two long shots to get snow in the next week. 1) we get a 12z ukmet scenario where the initial cutter drags and disconnects its energy, cold push allows hp to build in and another low forms on the frontal boundary. 2) para gfs scenario with a strong second wave Not likely, but not impossible I guess. Both scenarios involve perfect spacing and timing, but don’t 90% of our snowstorms? I’m all in for a fun 00z
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If you want hope. 18z para gfs has a strong follow up wave and is a snowstorm from dc to SNE lol
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Interesting. Just trying to find ways we could snow. Para gfs winds up the cutter, but has enough energy with follow up wave it develops a coastal.
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Oh i see pivotalwx has the para gfs off runs
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Curious myself...
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I know it’s the NAM at 84 hour but it does look like it’s about disjoint energy
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If it wasn’t for stupid Christmas I would have been near Buffalo right now.
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Icon does what the ukie last night. It splits the cutter and allows for cold air to press.
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Awesome^ Now I’m getting jealous. I’m not missing the next one that’s for sure.
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Few gfs members have it, but it’s not even worth it at this range. The pacific is so volatile models will have tough time with energy coming on shore, and each model is handling next weeks cutter differently. The gfs was going to be suppressed, but it hung around long enough for a northern branch shortwave to phase in. That being said, it’s the only chance for coastal regions in the next 12 days it seems so might as well keep an eye on it
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I was thinking of chasing the LES today but with holidays and work just can’t do it. I’ll have another chase worthy storm at some point.
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Hopefully the SSW will save us. Rocking feb?
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The gfs and gefs look like crap in the LR. They’ve reversed over the last few days. Very worrisome
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Gfs and euro handling next weeks cutter differently seemingly impacts entire run. Let’s hope this isn’t a case where the euro caves.
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I wouldbt be able to get out and leave for NY or Erie until tomorrow evening. Worried that by that point roads will be atrocious as I got close, and I’d miss half the storm. Ugh bad timing. Hopefully another Les event soon I’ll come chase!
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You know you’re screwed already. This is how it works for us snow lovers. We’ve all been out of town during a big one. I missed Feb 2006 in Philly.
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It’s a thread the needle but it’s a good setup still...verbatim (and not worth at this stage) you have to have the perfect balance of not phasing the ULL in Canada and not getting shredd d. This run basically did that. This would have been a foot plus for someone in VA this run. Eps looks like it shows it at H5 as well
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Yeah it ain’t snowing with a low in the lakes and high off the coast, but it could change. Encouraging runs last night.
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Ensembles were way better. Going to have bs volatile runs like that let’s hope it doesn’t become a pattern though
