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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    12z icon looks much farther SE. I can’t tell if it’s doing a NAM/CMc progression though, don’t have H5 yet just slp/precip
  2. Heisy
    The out of range NAM looks to be doing a similar progression as CMC. Just something to keep an eye on, it could completely screw up the spacing and the event itself.
  3. Heisy
    Yes, that’s the biggest threat to the system right now
  4. Heisy
    CMC ensemble don’t agree with the OP. It actually looks pretty decent with better spacing & cold press
  5. Heisy
    I’m here haha was up late sticking my head out windows and walking around the block like a nut. I was pretty down on it after a few of those EPS runs but even the 6z made a nice jog SE. I appreciate the credit it was kind of how I saw the pattern progressing. Sucks the para stopped running again it looked good at the end of its run last nights. Let’s keep working on the spacing and we’re good to go.
  6. Heisy
    Psu you nailed it. The models are trending better with hanging the TPV around more which is suppressing the follow up wave. The 00z & 6z cmc go as far as making it so slow to depart that no true storm would form because there’s no spacing. Few more shifts and dc thru Philly are in the game.
  7. Heisy
    No separation between the tpv and main wave so it gets all fooked. It’s likely wrong, not much support for that at all
  8. Heisy
    Dude you and I are soul mates, sorry haha. I’d take 2 feet of ice, let’s do it. No power for a month and National guard
  9. Heisy
    Seems odd though how often do you see a snow event with snow all the way out to upstate ny and here at the same time
  10. Heisy
    Yea cmc doesn’t have wave separation with the tpv so it gets all fooked. Meanwhile the Ukie is a hit
  11. Heisy
    Gfs is an epic ice storm next week
  12. Heisy
    Where you at birds?
  13. Heisy
    Yeah I think it’s insane. I bet tonight it ticks warmer again. This screams sleet storm to me personally. Just hopefully not rain
  14. Heisy
    Ice totals for weekend off euro. Looks like sleet probably mixed in too
  15. Heisy
    Yea I agre. This smells like a sleet bomb to me personally. 18z para well S of GFS. Let’s hope for a shift S tonight on op and euro
  16. Heisy
    Oh I def agree. The low level cold is 10x better, but mid level would be a different story. Idc if it’s 0f the day before nothing stops the mid levels unless we see better vort pass and confluence
  17. Heisy
    Here’s a model run I saved from December. I’m sure the final result was somewhat like this, but either way, Canada was def a bit different but both had similar ridging issues on EC and trough axis with main vort
  18. Heisy
    Not saying it’s right, so don’t kill me, but this trough axis is positive way too fast. Kind of like the December event. This one would have a much better lower level cold airmass so I think euro is scouring out the cold too fast, but we need to work on this look. It took a step though as psu noted so that’s good.
  19. Heisy
    My new bar is 4.5” for this one now lol. I love to set myself up for disappointment.
  20. Heisy
    Most of the old members from this site are on phillywx.com forum Ralph. He used to post here.
  21. Heisy
    This is pretty close to warning if kuchera is right, what’s stopping even farther N? Edit: misread you, do you mean watches since the timing is not until tomorrow
  22. Heisy
    Goes with the old saying, Stronger wave 1 weaker wave 2, vice versa. What a joke the euro is right now.
  23. Heisy
    I feel bad for them wish we could both get hit
  24. Heisy
    Euro is legit warning snow I think, tombo thinks so too
  25. Heisy
    Yep, NAM bufkit had Philly at 13:1 too fyi
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