Heisy

It's amazing how similar this setup is to tomorrow's event. We benefit this time from the main wave not being as wrapped up as early, but that kicker could play a role either way. Like tomorrow's event it could end up phasing and pulling it west or help kick it east. Love the potential though. Anyway, I'm packed up and headed to Niagra Falls tomorrow morning. Peace weenies

Alright, bags packed, just need to change a tire tomorrow morning, but then it is off to the races, problem is I haven't decided Niagra falls or near Dunkirk NY, looking for highest possible total LES included. Going with the girl so Niagra falls gets bonus points, but any suggestions

Looks like Niagra falls region is where I’ll be staying. Can’t leave until tomorrow morning, about a 6 hour drive, but hopefully I can beat out the snow. Need to grab new tires and get an oil change and then we’re out. Really hoping to pull 18+, it’ll be close I think. I’m just as excited for the few hours of dumpage from that deform band before it lifts out. I told myself During the summer that I would chase towards the lakes this winter, didn’t realize it would be a synoptic event. Question, what kind of snow cover does region currently have?

I have weatherbell, 6z euro doesn’t run until 6:45 I thought, I’ll check

This morning the plan was Rochester, but now I'm thinking of headed towards Niagra Falls. Though, if I see more NW ticks I'll just stay home. Really want to get into that deformation/ccb zone as long as possible. Reminds me when I chased to Lewisburg pa last year for the Dec storm. I got mix/dry slotted during the height while just north of me saw 2 feet. Well see what happens

That vort was close to going ape though. Probably cmc doing cmc things, at least theres something new showing up

Headed to Rochester sunday morning

This is total including pre LES

6z euro

Hey all, I'm going to be chasing this thing from Philly. I know it's very early but I'll be coming back for some spot recommendations, it does look like itll be somewhere between Erie PA and W NY. The speed of this thing might hurt, but I do think 20 inches or greater will be hit by someone in W NY

I despise these storms. I'll probably be somewhere between Pitt and buffalo, could change of course, hoping it's more of a BGM chase

I dont know, this feels like the upgraded OP handling things well and lower resolution GEFS struggling like old times. Anyone remember the GEFS and Dec 16/17 last year? Pepperidge farms remembers...I'm always wrong though. I'm just hoping theres someone who gets 2 feet on the models as we get closer because I plan to chase

On top of the 6z and eps, Check out the 6z euro control...was about to destroy DC Can the GFS win again?!

Wat

Yes but it doesnt start running until like 7:45, it's out to like 36 hours or so right now

That helps, it's a pure spacing issue with the wave behind and the wave off coast. It's actually more the TPV in SE canada that ends up squashing things. The ocean low phases with it. While the ULL diving south is closed and robust the trough axis is positively tilted. One way we can still win is if the main ULL has more latitude as it heads east. I honestly prefer it NOT to dig too far South to begin with. I dont think theres enough spacing for this thing to turn a corner and ride the coast. TL/DR: Strength and Latitude ftw

I actually think it's part that and part the one on its heels mucking up the flow a bit. Probably a combination of the two. Hopefully we are just in a mid range lose it, only to bring it back stage

The 12z Ukie also looked like it was going to have a favorable miller b if it went beyond 144 Haha I cant change my username for some reason, but considering we have 3 first round picks because of the Wentz trade and made the playoffs it's still wentzadelphia here. I was planning to move to Worcester this winter but it will be next winter instead

Wow 12z cmc @180

There are a few 6z eps members that hit eastern Maine with the ocean event on the 13th, the 17/18th wave looked bit less amplified vs 00z

Mother of God.jpg

From my understanding a night or two from the event the Mrf was pretty far south with precip just skirting the city

12z cmc was actually setting something up as well for the same period the gfs has this monstrosity. Just fun and games for now

My first year on the forums (Wright-Weather) was winter of 2000-01, what a crazy winter to get the hobby started. I was 14 at the time, I remember watching a segment on the 6PM news from Hurricane Schwartz down here in Philly. It was early to mid December at the time. He was talking about an upcoming pattern change and something called a NAO. I did a google, uh, maybe askjeeves search and the test was history... That winter started off with a major cold front in mid to late December which lead to the block forming in the Atlantic. This eventually lead to the dec 30 2000 event. A week or so before that event the models were showing a HECS Miller A. It eventually turned into a purely Miller B ULL. @Jiprobably doesnt remember this, but I was up all night watching the radar during that dec 30 event. We spoke on AIM and he told me how he could see still see the stars outside which was a terrible sign. DC was supposed to get like 6-10" and instead got partly sunny. That season also had the infamous March 2001 bust. All in all it was actually a decent winter in philly. I understand @Bob Chill not getting invested on LR op runs. Personally, I still cant help it. During Nov-April I check each model run during the day. I will stay up late for euro during if theres a big one approaching. I can't help it. The lows way out weigh the highs, but that's the beauty if this hobby. The big ones are rare, but when they happen theres no better feeling as a snow enthusiast.