Heisy

Here in Philly it's the same theme. The closer to the event the more confusing it is becoming. I think its the multiple shortwaves causing all the issues. Youre seeing a partial phase with the energy dropping down from Canada while the main energy is still digging in the south. The timing & strength of this seems to be causing increased variables.

The closer we get the more confused I get. Goodluck forecasting for the city with this one.

This model has rocked this year. Looks about right. any RPM love?

If it was sleety already I’d expect it to get worse with the GFS. I feel more confused than I did yesterday. Huge potential but even high end is around 6” or so. Sucks because there was a period after 12z runs yesterday I started to feel like 6-10 was legit

Out of range, anyone know what the HREF shows? NAM continues to show pesky warm layers I believe. High bust potential as with every damn event. I'll be happy if we can muster up 4" in NE Philly before any sleet.

18z EURO hinted at that. GFS just followed suite. Not good, but its early still.

Not great trends tonight IMO. Losing the punch of the front end on GFS, RGEM, and ICON. Meh.

Latest 18z EURO more NAMish, WAA extends from the "finger" like feautre extending from the south. Thump rides that boundary as well as the sleet changeover line. Heavier snow focused just NW of city, as we should expect. Still a fun storm verbatim.

I still think main show for city is the initial thump. We probably lose some lift and mid level temps after. There are significant differences at this range on the models for what happens after the thump. It’s going to be the wildcard for turnpike N. The NAMs snow map looks similar to other models for the most part, but it gets there in a slightly different way. in the grand scheme of things this storm looks better for the city than maybe any other event did at this range. I’m talking about consistency throughout each model. Last event the NAM never really came on board for Philly until real late etc etc. as for me, I’m going to setup shop somewhere NW of the city. Idk if I’ll be more west or north yet. I could stay home but with the timing I’ll be able to come home Friday. Isn’t like I’m diving 4 hours away or anything. right now for philly im still liking 4-7” with some sleet, but if we see a few more ticks colder at mid levels I’ll go 6-10”

Beautiful

How dare you leave out the JMA

12z Ukie gives us breathing room as it focuses WAA thump south. Fine by me at this range

There's also a shot at less than 10:1 too especially near the city at times if we see sneaky warm layers.

That was a nice shift on the ukie, starting to have some convergence in guidance here. The morning thump should be fun as hell.

Thanks for the info! WRT parallel euro, Someone linked it in the mid Atlantic forum earlier today, it had weatherbell graphics but I couldn’t locate it on the site... anyway... Any idea why the Para GFS, 00z Ukie, and some others have a “snow hole” over Philly? Is it because we miss out on the waa fronto thump and the coastal snows just NW? Maybe the h7 low tracking too far inland?

This storm should (crossing fingers) have a really fun 3-6 hours on the front end.

Is RPM an in house model? Is it available to public? Also what is the deal with the new parallel euro? It was a pretty big hit earlier today.

Winter ain’t dead yet with this look. Lala land but we take that cold air transport setup

I couldn’t make the trip in time so you guys will certainly jackpot. Radar looks good enjoy fellas!

For the city it is going to come down to where that initial fronto banding sets up. This storm won’t be able to give us snow from the coastal since the upper levels are t great. Think of PD2 where that initial fronto crushed DC and that area. I’d rather be north right now of where GFS has it so no complaints yet. That is a way we could get “screwed” though where initial waa banding is south thru Md line. Then mid levels toast for the coastal part. Places to the NW of city may be able to hold Onto snow longer from The coastal. It’s why you see the snow hole over us on the 18z para gfs

@Ji pretty wild DCs biggest snow of the year might come from a storm which was originally pegged to be practically a cutter in the medium-long range by the GFS. You almost never see those types of storms trend this way lol. This winter is goofy

I love your guys location for this one. With the exit side of thr trough trending more progressive the initial fronto aimed right at you. Should make for a fun morning. Usually big wide open gulf events like this you’d expect NAM to be N. It should cave soon

Are you mixing up the events? Tonight is a no go. This event is Thursday that has the chance for legit snowfall. Was thinking about starting my first thread for the event since were under 4 days, but idk haha

3km is a good shift SE of 12km With heights so that’s a positive Edit: well maybe slightly better. Gonna need a lot more though.

It’s been really good hinting at progression this winter. I agree. Probably because I’m a paranoid baby though.