Heisy

00z icon brought the day 6 event up the coast. And gfs looks better so far...

With this setup we’d have a really active STJ. If that blocking is legit then there should be event after event. If the blocking isn’t real then we risk a complete failure. Was this what 94-95 had going? With that look HP should park right over the Great Lakes. Patience is running thin but hopefully today’s look stays!

12z eps goes ape with the Atlantic blocking. One of the strongest signals I’ve seen this far out on a mean. Of course we have no +PNA, but maybe an overrunning type pattern? This is 276

Man that’s one of the best atlantic Blocks I’ve seen on the eps long range mean. Quite a signal. Maybe an overrunning potential & swfe with -pna getting the stj into play? Hour 276

Agreed, but I can see it now, we get shutout until the st paddy’s day blizzard of 2021.

Who actually likes snow anyway? It’s the chase that matters :/

CMC is slightly south, gets light snow in the region, but decent H5 look

12z para has much better confluence. We might have a signal boys and gals

That ULL could be a tough one. It could actually help force things farther south or if the main storm phases and tilts the trough with it. Either way good signal so far today. Onto cmc and euro

Major storm Incoming on GFS. Nice CAD signature. Main vort staying neutral in a good spot

Nice elongated confluence. That ULL in s Canada helps keep the flow south. HP N of the low too so far

Looking good so far...12z gfs

Not bad. Probably not worth discussing with this model at this range, but It does look like It would be a close call if we saw beyond 180.

Icon looks pretty good at 171, nice confluence. Good start to 12z imo idk I got good vibes today

I’ll let others explain better, but basically when a low pressure hits a high pressure and a new low forms. Here is a random map I pulled off google showing the two lows. The secondary is the one forming near the coast.

I’m a 2.5 year met student drop out so I don’t have much to work with. I didn’t have to make a long post. Could have said. If you want something to keep an eye on see if the remnants of the trash system can help motivate this annoying bitch of an old man winter to get his act together

Thanks, appreciate it, best wishes! I live in Philadelphia so to make that drive I’d probably only consider it if there was a % shot at 15+. Like i said I have no clue what to look for when it comes to H5 or anything just the basics. So hopefully it looks good as we get closer!

On the way to jail as we speak.

Lastly, 18z eps has a slightly better look with the wave I just mentioned in my post. This wave would help slow the flow down a tad for that NS piece to drop in. Just my amateur .00002 cents

sorry for all the images in this post, but they do a better job at explaining than I do...anyway... Interesting development happened on 18z runs probably no one noticed but my sicko brain. Yesterday I noticed this on the Ukie but didnt think much about it at the time, but this “could” be a pretty interesting development. I also think this wave also helped create the mega bomb on last nights CMC...We’ve been talking about the propensity for NS storms to sneak up on guidance. That is true, but sometimes you also need the southern branch to play along. Well, take a look at the 18z icon progression today at the end of the run. The fail storm that we’ve been tracking is getting sheered out and leaving an elongated frontal boundary in its wake. The icon has this energy kind of meander in the south, but then the NS dives down and it looks like a phase is about to take place. 18z euro at the end of the run was elongating that energy more than the 12. why does this matter? Having that wave there offers a slim hope to kind of phase something. I’m pretty interested to see if 00z runs pick this up again. Today’s 12z runs has this feature, but since it wasn’t as pronounced it just got kicked east. Sorry, my meteorology lingo isn’t great lol. Images in order: 18z Icon (2), 18z euro, last nights Ukie, and last nights CMC

If we get inside 2-3 days and it looks like potential still exists I may consider chasing this. I don’t know much about LES synoptic setups but what kind of potential you guys think looking at for late next week?

First shot will be after the front on the 16th. So looking like 18-19th as psu showed above. Models are showing a pretty good Cold shot on the 16th with another pac wave behind it. Long way to go but I’d punt anything until then. Except for me I might go chase LES next week if that ULL look holds

Yea I agree, but just hoping for a general idea to stick and fluctuate better from this point

I think we’re toast before then anyway

This isn’t too uninspiring, though it’s only 10 days away! But what is inspiring is this look is on basically every model at this frame. We have a 50/50 and ridge. Now I’d like to see this look continue and actually get some digital snow