Heisy

mentioned this yesterday, latitude latitude latitude, other factors of course, but good start on Icon. I have little hope here in philly, but would love to be able to chase to VA

On a serious note with the 50/50 location and the ridge being in an iffy spot want this shortwave to have as much latitude as possible as it tracks east. This way even if it bombs on the coast and heads east quickly it would be able to throw back moisture. What’s also allowed this to come nw a bit is that tpv in Canada shifting NW. The euro and gfs did this today, but cmc kept it too Far East. This one has good potential though. Well see

I never thought I’d have to storm chase to friggin Dave Tolerris’a house this year. Gotta do what ya gotta do sometimes

If we can get that ridge behind the 28th event slightly west we’re in business. If it can just neg tilt a little bit there should be some good precip nw of the shortwave, there’s a lot of ridging in front of it too but the hp saves us.

Haha every time a model spits out decent snow it doesn’t have to be compared to 96 fellas....was 79 pd1 I’m blanking out. Was it that small angry small closed off ULL that crushed dc? If so yeah it has more similarities to that.

Gfs also shifted that Tpv westward in Canada. Ukie Looked decent at 144

6z euro vs 00z. Looks like a touch more ridging & a slightly stronger main wave

I’m a painter but I say screw it. I end up refreshing the gfs and euro after every roll and brush stroke.

The isobars are more sheared out around the L and you can see the secondary forming quicker, but idk if that’s a product of a faster shortwave or not. There does seem to be less HP wedging into Ne though.

This run was a lot different in SE Canada vs 00z

It’s been too far north recently at this range so I wouldn’t sweat it that much, concerns are valid. Let’s hope a good euro run

Farther N, but not as bad as the crazy 00z run

You said it earlier for this one, For dc you really need the right balance of the wave being strong enough but not gaining too much latitude because there really isn’t much cad ahead. Now the 29th event has a much better cad look because you already have NS confluence ahead of it, but that one has issues with being strong enough with a fast flow behind it. I’m just as frustrated here in philly. I expect the euro to Come north but my guess is not as much as Ukie or cmc.

This looks like it would favor NE as we head into feb/March...

Hopefully we get to call it baby snowmageddon or junior? I’m in Philly but I’d def chase to W VA if euro is right. This H5 of feb 3 2010 but you can see the storm forming in southwest just like this one. Good point on the nino stj. Night. Hopefully another good day tomorrow.

Hmmm...not comparing the amounts just the placement and gradient. That one came out of the southwest too. It was just more organized.

I wish lol. I only chase if I’m truly desperate or there is a solid chance to see 2ft. This looks more like a 6-10 deal best case, but like I said I hope I can. I always root on the snowiest evolution regardless of where it is. let me also add the gfs is a god awful model and should have 0 bearing on this storm. Hell in December, 48 hours or so out the gfs had a few runs that didn’t have BGM getting 1 flake of snow & they got 40+” lol... That being said I’ll be the first to hop on its bandwagon and get excited when it shows 2 feet so can’t fault anyone.

Anyone else notice the trowal on the euro? Makes sense considering models showing a sheered out flat wave. Too far out to talk about details, but if this ends up being the case it would definitely cause precip to exit more slowly.

Save from what? I mean didn’t the Canadian crush you guys too? You have the para, cmc, and now the euro, who cares what the worst model out of the bunch says, aka GFS. Said it yesterday and I see no reason to change. South of MAson Dixon line is where I’d wanna be right now.

See that little spike of the AO near the 29th? More reason that one has legs, could be our Archambault event. I mean, it’s the psu storm first of all, but just sayin’.

The initial moisture is from the stj influx. The shortwave weakens imo because it’s stuck between 3 features, the block. (Hp), 29th wave right behind it, and the 50/50 sitting there.

Imo you guys are in a great spot right now. You do really well with positively tilted shortwaves/weakening energy. I like your chances with the 29 event too. Good old wave #3. Personally I think that one ends up the strongest. It has the best setup as the first wave ushers in HP.

To be fair last nights euro was pretty much a rainstorm. At this range can’t expect accurate model runs... we’re starting to see how this might progress though. First time in a while might be catching a break

Not really,..it trended towards the same progression with the lead energy going ahead and then the main energy coming east. It just has stronger lead wave which is likely bs. It’ll cave para does same thing but is a big va hit

This progression is on the 6z para. It’s also on some of the 6z GEFS members. May be our best shot...