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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    OP gfs actually has -epo form briefly, so block is still trying to Reform too so after a brief relaxation we get a decent pattern setting up after a huge storm in the 300 hr range
  2. Heisy
    Ukie actually has a storm this run lol. It’s still east, but a trend
  3. Heisy
    I’ve learned using Storm vista a while it likes to count sleet as snow, but it never counts snow if the surface temps are even .1 over 32 . You can see that on the mean here. Just pointing it out for other SV users.
  4. Heisy
    The 6z and 00z gfs would have had ptype issues too but they were just stronger, closed off earlier, and thus dynamics took over in the ccb much faster
  5. Heisy
    Thanks, to me it makes sense why we sometimes see the GFS kind of tick towards other models at times, and then it has one run where it completely caves on th overall progression of events. I’d wager good money the 12z gfs ticks south again, but I suppose the big money will be on the 00z run. This also happens to other models though too so there’s just so many factors well see
  6. Heisy
    I posted later, but I thoughtthe H5 was more organized early on, but turns out the confluence was worst from the lingering 50/50
  7. Heisy
    Would this explain trends to a certain degree?
  8. Heisy
    It’s not that simple as the above met posted, idk was just throwing it out there. Doesnt mean the gfs is wrong would like to have the euro/Ukie on board very soon Idk up here it was atrocious. Was way too south. So was the euro though at times. There were runs like 3 days out that had Philly getting the max snow with Bgm sniffing virga
  9. Heisy
    Tony, rain shadow. One of the best Philly Mets
  10. Heisy
    This is good info to know. From our Philly board met. “If the GFS went off the rails, it takes about 30 hours of runs to self correct because it uses its own 6 hr forecast to adjust initial conditions. Hence if it is an error, it gets perpetuated in future runs until a pair of sounding runs expunge it. The Euro starts from scratch each sounding run. So by the 00z run tonight we will know”
  11. Heisy
    6z eps is a little better. Still nothing like GEFS but certainly an improvement
  12. Heisy
    6z vs 00z euro comparison fwiw , gif should work lmk if it isn’t.
  13. Heisy
    I kind of agree with the sentiment that we’ll see a meet in the middle type deal. If I can storm chase to you guys that would be awesome though!
  14. Heisy
    Incoming..This has to be good right psu?
  15. Heisy
    Yeah which is why I said I hate that model haha, it likes to torture us...I’ll take it more serious under 72 hours.
  16. Heisy
    Para H5 looks good so far...
  17. Heisy
    FYI the 00z para updated it’s up to 90 hours
  18. Heisy
    It’s funny too because the Ukie has been super amped all winter. Few weeks ago at this range it kept showing a hit on an event that was out to sea. Of course this event it’s out to sea. Made it to midnight night as well wait for the euro.
  19. Heisy
    I agree. It’s been crap this year. When gfs picks up a signal like this it is usually a good sign.
  20. Heisy
    After the gfs and cmc the Ukie does this, really? Lol I hate that model sometimes
  21. Heisy
    Ukie is a buzzkill. Randy was right. Go to bed
  22. Heisy
    Haha common these are the nights we wait all summer for. The cmc being this good tells me this is legit. Let’s take it on the chin and see what euro does. If Ukie comes north I’m all in.
  23. Heisy
    Gfs might be nice!
  24. Heisy
    I’m not sure how much that lobe effects things. It’s kind of cutoff from the flow. It’s more the 50/50 in my eyes. I mean we saw the cmc earlier which had that ULL sitting even farther S and it was better. Idk though
  25. Heisy
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