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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Can you post an H5?
  2. Heisy
    This will continue to be the main question. Phased storms are not modeled well imo. I live in Philly but will chase wherever it falls so I have no skin in the game, but I’d feel very good if I lived in N VA right now.
  3. Heisy
    Even though it’s farther north gfs was long duration too. It’s definitely a legit signal hard to ignore.
  4. Heisy
    I recall the euro kept putting those insane amounts in N VA around 180 hours out. It may have had a run or 2 where it was south because I remember sitting here in Philly worrying about being fringed a few times, but over and over the signal was there for ccb snows in that region. Wasn’t until the NAM came in range that snow chances increased into Philly burbs and nyc...this is two euro runs in a row with a heavy area over N VA let’s start a trend
  5. Heisy
    I don’t like relying on that late capture. That’s a complicated setup and just slightly different timing we could go from this run to crap pretty fast. I love the potential though. It’s very March 58 esque down in VA
  6. Heisy
    The 12z JMA is an example of a euro type run without the late capture
  7. Heisy
    I mean just looking at the euro verbatim if that energy doesn’t dive behind it probably doesn’t bomb like it did. Doesn’t mean no snow just not as much coastal love. The gfs is north for different reasons
  8. Heisy
    Remember we are still many days away, and this run needed a late capture to really get going. I’m as excited as anyone but it could still be a miss but not be a gfs coup. You guys are in a good spot though idc where it hits I’ll chase! Just temper expectations right now too far out
  9. Heisy
    This is practically a carbon copy of March 58 farther south
  10. Heisy
    This storm relies on a complicated phase. You guys are in a great spot because WAA snow should hit you either way, but be careful tracking this one. Fasten your seatbelts. I just pray models are right with the phase job this is March 58 esque
  11. Heisy
    Heather A did a study where large east coast storms tend to form when there is a phase change from an ongoing pattern such as a -nao chanhgang to a positive etc. it’s not equivalent to Miller a or b
  12. Heisy
    There’s a met on the philly forum that has a rule about how it rarely snows unless the icon shows snow falling lol. It’s a good sign to have this model showing snow. The main takeaway from this run is there could be aN epic CCB somewhere.
  13. Heisy
    There’s nothing wrong with being excited while being cautious. There has never been a winter storm where we sat 6 days out and didn’t have worries over one aspect or another. The excitement comes from knowing that if things go optimally this event could be a ku.
  14. Heisy
    That 6z eps run was drool worthy. Looking at H5 and h7 that would have bombed and probably closed off in a really good spot for Mid atlantic
  15. Heisy
    Like forky stated earlier in this thread models continue to underestimate the blocks effects. Seems confluence is getting stronger each run. There’s even a New England streamer wave showing up On guidance (Ukie especially) Hopefully we get the right balance this time around. I’m more concerned atm for a messy evolution/south event than I am of inland.
  16. Heisy
    Yeah, that’s chase worthy plus we do well too
  17. Heisy
    Icon, hey tip you mentioned a 996mb low ripping it? Lol right on cue
  18. Heisy
    Yeppers my friend looks really nice 135, secondary forming
  19. Heisy
    Meh, common guys tracking is half the fun lol. It’s all the better when it actually pays off but I love the chase just as much!
  20. Heisy
    You can say that again...even though the para is south it snows over Maryland for close to 60 hours lol.
  21. Heisy
    I forget which one it was, but one of those storms had the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen for a sustained period. White out and thunder for a few hours it was incredible.
  22. Heisy
    Weaker lead shortwave might be better if you want a bigger event imo that way gives time for main energy to round the bend without the mid levels getting blown too far N. Just looking at how gfs vs euro handle things and what could benefit us idk.
  23. Heisy
  24. Heisy
    Don’t hold out, post that ish
  25. Heisy
    Ye was gonna post that. You don’t see it snow for 50+ hours straight that often haha. There is a signal for a 2 part system with waa and then a slow formation of the coastal, but too far out to know for sure. That was wild run though lol its still snowing at 192 wth!
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