Heisy

That would have been a snowstorm day 10 on the euro. Euro has an upstate my/interior blizzard which lays down the cold for the follow up wave. Gfs and Canadian also show this. Something to keep an eye on

Classic upstate blizzard, Drools.

Seeing some agreement for a +PNA in this time frame. Cold air possibly available, but as always will need timing between two waves to get the job done. For example, on the 18z GFS you see how the trough kind of elongates where the lead wave lays the cold air down and the back end of the trough digs and turns the corner...something like that. Euro is an example of what wouldn't work where you just get one really strong low out of the trough at 240 hrs. Something to keep an eye on because there isn't much potential until then

Don't be jealous, chase. It's only a short drive to wherever you need to be. I was supposed to be living in Worcester this winter, but things changed. If there's a shot for 12-18" somewhere I'll head up.

Northern branch energy seems a little stronger and has a better angle of approach through 87 hrs on 12z euro

Yea that was a close call, could be the euro over developing systems, but we'll see...any support for this on the individuals?

Correct. These type of events kind of reappear on modeling in the day 4-6 range so we'll see if it has legs. That was damn close on the euro though

Enjoy it! I’m hoping for a major event soon for a chase out there.

The other day I was going through photos and screen shots from last year and came across this. I saved it for some reason lol... This is today's Day 7 12z Euro vs a day 9 GFS run from last year. They're about a week apart. I don't know how well this verified last year...but fwiw....pretty similar. I wonder if we see a similar progression

I was going through old pictures/screen shots this morning….I don’t know how well this verified, but here is last nights euro day 7 vs a 9 day GFS run from last year around the same time. Found them to be pretty similar

Anyone know if Rob22 is still around? He used to be a mod here. Was one of my friends back in the day. We both went to the same university for op. Meteorology. @Ralph Wiggumyou remember him right? DT used to call him Rib. He is one of the original wright weather posters. I haven't seen him post in years, just hoping he's okay. He used to run the weenie of the year contest, which I of course won years ago.

Just realized the video ive seen on YouTube of someone shoveling snow off their roof was your house. I wish I was chasing back then. Couldn't imagine that much snow

How much snow for Jacksonville? Find it ironic Florida is the only state with blue

On a positive note the storm is important to the pattern regardless of whether it ends up a rain event. Helps create blocking.

Wow I actually don't recall this event at all what the heck? Anyone have any model runs or radar shots to refresh my memory?

You don't see a CCB like that too often. That is one hella nuke. Rain in the Poconos and snow in DC

6z GFS has a large closed ULL for 23rd now

Absolute bomb on 6z GFS for 22-23rd time frame. I don't have individuals but looking at EPS I'd imagine there's some support for that time frame as well...

Pretty good look for me to go on my first LES chase.

Bring it.

That's a mighty strong ULL on the long range EURO...

What's the last +12"+ December event in Philly? I feel a solid 4-8, 6-10 classic Dec 5 event this year

Can't believe we're back baby. Less than a month until Dec 1. Felt like it would never get here. Anyway, I feel a lot better going into Winters where everyone expects below average snow. It just seems like winters that are forecasted to be AN snow by the majority are always a let down. I have sneaky good vibes about this winter. No science to back it up, but I like the overall pattern at H5 right now. I think we have accumulating snow before the 10th. I'll bump this after the 00z NAM drops a foot plus in the city a month from now.

I have to renew my subscriptions, but does the 00z euro have any flakes from that day 9 event?

Not that it's worth talking about for obvious reasons but I meant the overall pattern. Of course heights are going to be higher in Nov than January or December. I just liked the block on the map. PNA ridge axis still too far west on that map, but it's close to the type of look we'd want come winter.