Heisy

End of the 6z control eps, this is probably a big interior hit. There were some big hits on the 00z eps for interior. You have that piece diving down from Canada which should keep the main low far enough S to not run too far inland. Timing of the waves is important here. Interest peeked for 12z, I could use a chase. Posting control because it’s pretty much the OP extrapolated .

Look at the end of the eps and other ensembles and roll that forward. Everything looks in line with the weeklies progression. Heck NYC may even get snow next Monday hah. Once we get to Feb 4-6 we’ll see a solid pattern on the LR ensembles for around mid month, we’ll be tracking something soon. Just gotta get through next 15-18 days .

Look at the end of the eps and other ensembles and roll that forward. Everything looks in line with the weeklies progression. Heck NYC may even get snow next Monday hah. Once we get to Feb 4-6 we’ll see a solid pattern on the LR ensembles for around mid month, we’ll be tracking something soon. Just gotta get through next 15-18 days .

We never do, lol. Wouldn’t get my hopes up for this one. It’s not impossible to see some flakes though especially interior. Rocking Feb incoming though let’s do that. .

The weekend event is a thread the needle but not impossible. There’s a N/S wave that dives SE across Canada. How that is timed with the southern wave etc will determine what happens. Euro actually brings the N/S piece out ahead which built in some HP and is why it showed a snow event for NYC etc. would really need a perfect timed scenario idk. Can see the two pieces of energy here, our main shortwave and the one in SE Canada .

Wxusaf, 12z OP GFS has the progression you pointed out. It’s also been on the weeklies too. The ridge migrates east and then eventually into the right places. We will torch a few days between now and then but whatever. Roll second image up in time we probably have a decent pattern .

Just for fun. A last second shortwave dives out of Canada and builds HP behind it Kaboom .

You missed my point then. It was a “we’re kind of screwed” post. There’s still no reason we can’t rebuild a pattern by end of Feb into march though. .

Blizzard of 2/24/24 has a nice ring to it. Patience required .

Patience required…. Check back in after 2 weeks imo. This event today made me even hungrier for the big dog. One day… .

Yea, as long as it comes idc. Just want one major event .

Last nights eps was not kind to the eyes .

Didn’t I tell you earlier today? Dc/Balt would beat Philly. Enjoy it! Someone in MD will get 6+ .

Yep, and I think they’re wrong. I think just like the last event your NWS will be playing catch-up. Ours will bust high except maybe S NJ or C DE .

I think DC region beats Philly on this one too based on latest model trends .

Winter Club Warning .

We’re gonna have another opportunity stretch at some point, personally think it’ll be in the mid to late month range. See if the SSW helps us in anyway. Didn’t love end of eps last night, little can kick. I wouldn’t wipe out the first week of Feb yet. Let’s see how the LR looks in about a week .

The op gfs improved the long range, sped things up… let’s see if gefs follows .

Expect the weeklies to change tomorrow since the eps kind of caved to the gefs and geps today, but I saw this on the control and it reminds me a bit of current pattern .

This event kills me because i truly think we were so close to a MECS. Look at the pac piece that migrates towards the coast around 60 hours on the models, had that not existed and the ridge was able to expand or hold firm during the event I really believe something like one of those older GFS runs could have happened. We’ll have more chances in Feb. gonna try to recharge my energy over the next 2 weeks. I got sick prior to Tuesday event and I’m still not great so haven’t been able to enjoy them as much as I normally would. .

Has to do with the inverted trough there I imagine .

Am I the only one who walks there cats in the snow? Lol I’ll take pictures later .

End of Jan Mid Feb End of Feb .

Be careful that map also includes sleet. NAM has a warm layer after 1am .

Weeklies for Feb look like fun with blocking showing signs of returning and really coming back towards end of month .