18 at the airport seems pretty high. I think 11-12 sounds more realistic. I hope I’m wrong though. Gonna be close. Depends on the orientation of the ccb band and how far north h7 low is.
CMC should be nutty for someone in PA based on B&w maps as we expected. It follows rgem but isn’t always exact, like today’s 12z run where rgem was south and cmc farther N
Pottsville most likely but still got time, gonna wait for 6z eps and 12z NAM then leave. Rgem was unrealistically tucked earlier it just looks like an insane euro like run. I’ve bet against the other eps my last two chases and it burnt me badly
Ralph you’re really just pushing all your chips on the NAM vs all Other guidance?
this isn’t to say nyc region isn’t going to do great, but the NAM is a joke with precip over pa vs other models