Heisy

I flew from Philly to Colorado for last year's March event. I'm headed up to NE his morning, though I still haven't decided on a location. Its worth it screw it

Probably way overdone on the Nam obviously, but you never know, it nailed 2016 when every other model was farther E

It's already corrected big time down here in Philly. You guys probably not paying attention but notice the snowfall amounts changing down here between 12 18 and now 00z. It's a joke. It will keep adjusting

Hey I'm headed up tomorrow if you want to pick you up on the way lmk! Hah

I remember chasing to C MA for the 2013 event. Great event but S of me crushed. Then 2015 I head to RI and the goods go back to C MA Each storm I chased I went to where the model consensus was for the best totals. You just never know. Last December I chased to Lewishburg PA and models kept bumping N. I'm headed up there tomorrow with the girl. Can't wait! Haven't decided on a destination yet but it will likely be somewhere in SE MA. I honestly think that I may have seen more snow fall at my location, wherever that is, then any person in the country. Guinness WW are you listening?

Going to head up from Philly Friday barring any more shifts east. Probably somewhere in SE MA, cape idk. Always enjoy my time up in NE. Was up there for 2013 and 2015, let's bring it home. Ps. Sorry for the jinx

Pretty painful that just the small change of having the wave eject faster would have locked up this storm as a HECS. As is there is still potential for a large event. I plan to chase as long as we don't see any more substantial shifts and the euro holds. SE LI could could a destination for me

It's absolutely devastating, especially down here in Philly, that mother nature deciding to hold back this wave just slightly cost us a potential MECS. Absolutely brutal. Still rooting for you all because I plan to chase somewhere in MA

Top 3 worst winter of my life. I can deal with no snow, but to get constantly teased by the euro is an absolute nightmare

Been a long time since we got NAMED

Agreed. Can't wait for the upgrade they're giving to euro this year. Adding 50 ensemble members, extending 6 and 18z runs, better reslution....it's well over due

While you guys up in SNE can cash in regardless of early track the euro is really the only model showing this type of snow down here in Philly. I would urge caution right now with it. Early on in the run it looked like it was going to actually tick east. It held back more energy. It has caved towards other modeling many times this year, and for some reason during its off runs it seems to double down before doing so. You guys should do damn good regardless though. Even eastern adjustment SNE would crush it still

Not one 6z control post? Can't have that. Just close your eyes and imagine it's 24 hours out

6z euro looked better at the end of the run, but it did tick towards leaving more energy behind. It's just impossible to trust this model right now unless we see some support from other guidance. I think the wave will be on shore by 18z today. Might help guidance sampling

18z cmc looks like it was going to split off southern stream as well. Energy is much farther west vs 12z at 84 hours

End of 18z rgem shifted the main wave farther west, this would lean more towards euro camp. Could see the cmc correct east tonight if that trend continues since cmc basically plays off the rgem

This is a lot different than previous events this year. There is actually support across the spectrum this time.

The 12z control did what I was hoping the OP was going to do. If only a little more energy headed east from main shortwave it would had

Lmfao. Land the damn plane already! That is insane all the sub 970mb lows on the mean. Hell, there's even some sub 960mbs scattered all over the place. KU 'potential' with this one for sure

Worcester winning

This wave has huge importance to this storm (don't hate my photo editing skills). The 6z eps/euro/control actually pushed the main wave farther west towards four corners, but this second shortwave drops down and helps ignite everything. The control is an example of what could go wrong with a late phase. It still is a decent run verbatim.

@psuhoffmanmentioned it last night. Storm analog could be Feb3-4 1995. PNA driven storm. Storm that probably started my love of snow. Woke up as a scared 9 year old to thundersnow at around 5 or 6 am in Philly. Snow map looks very similar to 6z gfs output

This is top 5 weenie run of all time

Wow good find, h5 looks very similar.

Cmc actually might bring low close or over Boston this run, tough to tell exact position with these maps