Heisy

The trend is real. I’m actually more worried about rain than OTS. As Walt drag says we need the cmc to come on board. This event reminds me of 2013-14 where every shortwave trended better at this range. I really think this ends up being a 6-10” event in the suburbs. These types of waves seem to always trend wetter and stronger. It’s pure stj & with today’s ocean temps expect a juicier system

I think it very well could be. There are some deep lows on those individuals. This is a sensitive setup where if you just neg tilt that wave a little bit more kaboom.

Nice trend with 6z euro. Much sharper shortwave. This is a nice surprise let’s keep it going at 12z

Yep I’ll be hyping this up until it fails, but 18z gfs pretty much progressed exactly how I’ve been talking about. Hope eps starts honing in next few days. We always have our opportunity for big ones after block has fully retrograded and tpv moves east into 50/50 region

I was only 8 years old but I remember missing a lot of school & ice skating ON THE GRASS with my mom in our backyard up in Philly hah. Which is crazy if you think about in today’s climo

You can see the nice trend on the eps today as well. Hopefully we see eps start honing in on it more over the next few days. Gfs also had that quick spike in the pna which allowed that wave to dig as far as it did. Seeing slightly better pna ridging today hopefully that continues. HA event potentially. That 50/50 region is hawt. Just need spacing to work out

I love how the 18z gfs formed a storm at day 10-11 in the exact same way I’ve been talking about

That’s the risk with AO blocks retrograding west. Forces ULL sit west of lakes which increases ridging on the EC. Then you get HP off the EC. You have to hope the ULL is strong enough to get the gradient south enough This is why I’m more excited in the Day 10+ time frame. Look at end of euro run you have an elongated PV in 50/50 location with confluence draped behind it. A rising PNA. If a shortwave can form between the two it’s a perfect setup * note the HP sitting in a great spot at the end of the run. im still not dismissing anything until then I just like the potential towards feb 11-17 more

Problem is the Tpv is west of lakes this will make it tough for any low to track south of NYC. Think the gradient will be very close to NYC though but I’d favor SNE and NNE right now. Looks more like a SWFE to me. HP is not in an idea location because of the ULL positioning.

Been hyping it, but IMO it’s after the block is done retrograding and low heights head into 50/50 region that I think a big event is possible. Look at the end of the euro run. Elongated tpv with HP behind it. PNA ridge building, if any wave in between there is strong enough it would be perfect

Icon continues having a strong low for Sunday.

Icon brings the LP sub 980 on the gulf of Maine

12z icon looks amped again

Wouldn’t sweat it, if Sunday fails a few days later there’s a threat, and it’ll continue for a few weeks.

Should be many threats as the tpv keeps rotating south under the block, just need a little luck with the configuration.

It’s not impossible though, where I was in NJ a band parked itself on me. I was literally probably 10 miles away from being too far S

It’s still snowing outside NE Philly, crazy

I ninja’d MJO for once ;). Ukie also looks like it might have done something similar to LR cmc as well

Funny story I told my dad to buy natural gas. He went to his broker and the guy told him when it comes to that areas he listens to joe bastardi. My dads calls me back, hes like, my broker mentioned some guy named Joe bastard or something do you know of him? I loled. This was back in early Jan when the SSW happened. I bet this continues to rise.

John pretty much summed up in one tweet what I couldn’t in 58 posts, but yeah, elongate the PV, puts low heights in 50/50 region, hp builds in and roll the dice. Still need to time the branches good as always. Doesn’t garuantee anything, but like playing poker you put your chips in when ahead and should do well in the long run. I told my friend 2 weeks ago that if Philly didn’t get an inch of snow in the next 3 weeks I’d go streaking down Broad Street. I’m not there yet for a similar proclamation, but only because it’ll be a lot colder over the next few weeks and no one wants frozen nips

Bingo.

Yes here is eps at same time showing that HP starting to build in. So basically what I’d hope would unfold here is you can see hints of a split flow on the west coast. As the ULL around the lakes head east into 50/50 region it gives room for the Hp to build behind it. Then you have cold airmass in place for whatever comes out west underneath the Rex block. I can’t explain it as well as psu or others but def keep an eye on this time frame. Until then there def a few waves we could score a modest event out of.

Yeah that’s the Rex block under the -EPO. With a full finished retrograding block. Verbatim the euro has a wave down south there pressed under the NS tpv, but at this range not worried about details. Once that big ULL over lakes would move east if that split flow is modeled right and spacing is good. It’s game on. It’s exactly how blizzard of 96 formed. does this map look familiar to anyone?? 4-5 days before the blizzard of 96

Haha sorry guys lol. There’s plenty of opportunities before that it just seems this winter the big ones happen at the end of the pattern as -AO relaxes. The fun part is we can rebuilding the -AO.